Elliot T. Endo

Real-time Seismic Amplitude Measurement (RSAM): a volcano monitoring and prediction tool

Seismicity is one of the most commonly monitored phenomena used to determine the state of a volcano and for the prediction of volcanic eruptions. Although several real-time earthquake-detection and data acquisition systems exist, few continuously measure seismic amplitude in circumstances where individual events are difficult to recognize or where volcanic tremor is prevalent. Analog seismic records provide a quick visual overview of activity; however, continuous rapid quantitative analysis to define the intensity of seismic activity for the purpose of predicing volcanic eruptions is not always possible because of clipping that results from the limited dynamic range of analog recorders. At the Cascades Volcano Observatory, an inexpensive 8-bit analog-to-digital system controlled by a laptop computer is used to provide 1-min average-amplitude information from eight telemetered seismic stations. The absolute voltage level for each station is digitized, averaged, and appended in near real-time to a data file on a multiuser computer system. Raw realtime seismic amplitude measurement (RSAM) data or transformed RSAM data are then plotted on a common time base with other available volcano-monitoring information such as tilt. Changes in earthquake activity associated with dome-building episodes, weather, and instrumental difficulties are recognized as distinct patterns in the RSAM data set. RSAM data for domebuilding episodes gradually develop into exponential increases that terminate just before the time of magma extrusion. Mount St. Helens crater earthquakes show up as isolated spikes on amplitude plots for crater seismic stations but seldom for more distant stations. Weather-related noise shows up as low-level, long-term disturbances on all seismic stations, regardless of distance from the volcano. Implemented in mid-1985, the RSAM system has proved valuable in providing up-to-date information on seismic activity for three Mount St. Helens eruptive episodes from 1985 to 1986 (May 1985, May 1986, and October 1986). Tiltmeter data, the only other telemetered geophysical information that was available for the three dome-building episodes, is compared to RSAM data to show that the increase in RSAM data was related to the transport of magma to the surface. Thus, if tiltmeter data is not available, RSAM data can be used to predict future magmatic eruptions at Mount St. Helens. We also recognize the limitations of RSAm data. Two examples of RSAM data associated with phreatic or shallow phreatomagmatic explosions were not preceded by the same increases in RSAM data or changes in tilt associated with the three dome-building eruptions.

Response plan for volcano hazards in the Long Valley Caldera and Mono Craters region, California

Persistent unrest in Long Valley Caldera-characterized by recurring earthquake swarms, inflation of the resurgent dome in the central sections of the caldera, and emissions of magmatic carbon dioxide around Mammoth Mountain-during the last two decades and continuing into the 21st century emphasize that this geologically youthful volcanic system is capable of further volcanic activity. This document describes the U.S. Geological Surveys (USGS) response plan for future episodes of unrest that might augur the onset of renewed volcanism in the caldera or along the Inyo-Mono Craters chain to the north. Central to this response plan is a four-level color code with successive conditions, GREEN (no immediate risk) through RED (eruption under way), reflecting progressively more intense activity levels as summarized in table 1 and 2 and described in detail in section II.

A prototype global volcano surveillance system monitoring seismic activity and tilt

The Earth Resources Technology Satellite makes it feasible for the first time to monitor the level of activity at widely separated volcanoes and to relay these data almost instantancously to one central office. This capability opens a new era in volcanology where the hundreds of normally quiescent but potentially dangerous volcanoes near populated regions around the world can be economically and reliably monitored. A prototype global volcano surveillance system has been established beginning in the fall of 1972 with the help of local scientists on 15 volcanoes in Alaska, Hawaii, Washington, California, Iceland. Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua. Data on earthquake activity and ground tilt are received 6 to 10 times daily in Menlo Park, California, within 90 minutes of transmission from the sites. Seismic event counters were installed at 19 locations with biaxial borehole tiltineters with 1 microradian sensitivity installed at seven sites. Direct comparison of seismic events that are counted with records from nearby seismic stations show the event counters work quite reliably. An order of magnitude increase in seismic events was observed prior to the eruption of Volcán Fuego in Guatemala in February, 1973. Significant changes in tilt were observed on volcanoes Kilauea. Fuego, and Pacava. This study demonstrates the technological and economic feasibility of utilizing such a volcano surveillance system throughout the world.