Ellisiv B. Mathiesen

Echolucent Plaques Are Associated With High Risk of Ischemic Cerebrovascular Events in Carotid Stenosis The Tromsø Study

BackgroundThe purpose of the study was to assess in a prospective design whether plaque morphology is associated with risk of ischemic stroke and other cerebrovascular events in subjects with carotid stenosis. Methods and ResultsA total of 223 subjects with carotid stenosis (123 with 35% to 49% degree of stenosis, 100 with 50% to 99% stenosis) and 215 control subjects matched by age and sex who participated in a population health survey at baseline were followed up for 3 years. Plaque echogenicity was assessed by ultrasound at baseline and scored as echolucent, predominantly echolucent, predominantly echogenic, or echogenic. Forty-four subjects experienced ≥1 ischemic cerebrovascular events in the follow-up period. Plaque echogenicity, degree of stenosis, and white blood cell count were independent predictors of cerebrovascular events. The unadjusted relative risk for cerebrovascular events was 13.0 (95% CI 4.5 to 37.4) in subjects with echolucent plaques and 3.7 (95% CI 0.7 to 18.2) in subjects with echogenic plaques when subjects without stenosis were used as the reference. The adjusted relative risk for cerebrovascular events in subjects with echolucent plaques was 4.6 (95% CI 1.1 to 18.9), and there was a significant linear trend (P =0.015) for higher risk with increasing plaque echolucency. The adjusted relative risk for a 10% increase in the degree of stenosis was 1.2 (95% CI 1.04 to 1.4). ConclusionsSubjects with echolucent atherosclerotic plaques have increased risk of ischemic cerebrovascular events independent of degree of stenosis and cardiovascular risk factors. Subjects at high risk for ischemic vascular events may be identified by ultrasound assessment of plaque morphology.

Common Carotid Intima-Media Thickness Measurements in Cardiovascular Risk Prediction: A Meta-analysis

CONTEXT The evidence that measurement of the common carotid intima-media thickness (CIMT) improves the risk scores in prediction of the absolute risk of cardiovascular events is inconsistent. OBJECTIVE To determine whether common CIMT has added value in 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes, above that of the Framingham Risk Score. DATA SOURCES Relevant studies were identified through literature searches of databases (PubMed from 1950 to June 2012 and EMBASE from 1980 to June 2012) and expert opinion. STUDY SELECTION Studies were included if participants were drawn from the general population, common CIMT was measured at baseline, and individuals were followed up for first-time myocardial infarction or stroke. DATA EXTRACTION Individual data were combined into 1 data set and an individual participant data meta-analysis was performed on individuals without existing cardiovascular disease. RESULTS We included 14 population-based cohorts contributing data for 45,828 individuals. During a median follow-up of 11 years, 4007 first-time myocardial infarctions or strokes occurred. We first refitted the risk factors of the Framingham Risk Score and then extended the model with common CIMT measurements to estimate the absolute 10-year risks to develop a first-time myocardial infarction or stroke in both models. The C statistic of both models was similar (0.757; 95% CI, 0.749-0.764; and 0.759; 95% CI, 0.752-0.766). The net reclassification improvement with the addition of common CIMT was small (0.8%; 95% CI, 0.1%-1.6%). In those at intermediate risk, the net reclassification improvement was 3.6% in all individuals (95% CI, 2.7%-4.6%) and no differences between men and women. CONCLUSION The addition of common CIMT measurements to the Framingham Risk Score was associated with small improvement in 10-year risk prediction of first-time myocardial infarction or stroke, but this improvement is unlikely to be of clinical importance.

A sequence variant in ZFHX3 on 16q22 associates with atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke

We expanded our genome-wide association study on atrial fibrillation (AF) in Iceland, which previously identified risk variants on 4q25, and tested the most significant associations in samples from Iceland, Norway and the United States. A variant in the ZFHX3 gene on chromosome 16q22, rs7193343-T, associated significantly with AF (odds ratio OR = 1.21, P = 1.4 × 10−10). This variant also associated with ischemic stroke (OR = 1.11, P = 0.00054) and cardioembolic stroke (OR = 1.22, P = 0.00021) in a combined analysis of five stroke samples.

Cohort profile: The Tromsø Study

The Tromso Study was initiated in 1974 in an attempt to help combat the high mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Norway, that was particularly pronounced among middle-aged men. In the mid-1970s, Norwegian men had a 20% risk of dying of myocardial infarction (MI) before the age of 75 years. The situation in Northern Norway was even worse. The primary aim of the Tromso Study was to determine causes of the high cardiovascular mortality, and also to develop ways of preventing heart attacks and strokes. This was reflected through the first name of the study: The Tromso Heart Study. However, during the 37 years since the first examination of the Tromso Study took place, increasing emphasis has been put on other chronic diseases and conditions, in particular atrial fibrillation, venous thromboembolism, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis and fractures. It has been a deliberate policy to invite a wide range of faculty research groups to join in with subprojects in the surveys, and there are currently some 100 different ongoing research projects based on the data from the consecutive six surveys. The study was initially funded by the University of Tromso, and has been so for the entire period since 1974, but there have also been substantial contributions, directly and indirectly from, for example, the National Screening Services, the Research Council of Norway, Northern Norway Regional Health Authority, Norwegian Council on Cardiovascular Diseases and Norwegian Foundation for Health and Rehabilitation. Teams of investigators approach public research programmes for funding of the different examinations conducted. Tromso is the largest city in Northern Norway. It is situated 400 km north of the Arctic Circle, and has approximately 67 000 inhabitants. The physical living conditions are dominated by dramatic changes in the light with 2 months of midnight sun and 2 months of the polar night. However, due to the Gulf Stream, the climate is relatively mild, the latitude (698N) taken into account.

Carotid intima-media thickness progression to predict cardiovascular events in the general population (the PROG-IMT collaborative project) : a meta-analysis of individual participant data

BACKGROUND Carotid intima-media thickness (cIMT) is related to the risk of cardiovascular events in the general population. An association between changes in cIMT and cardiovascular risk is frequently assumed but has rarely been reported. Our aim was to test this association. METHODS We identified general population studies that assessed cIMT at least twice and followed up participants for myocardial infarction, stroke, or death. The study teams collaborated in an individual participant data meta-analysis. Excluding individuals with previous myocardial infarction or stroke, we assessed the association between cIMT progression and the risk of cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death, or a combination of these) for each study with Cox regression. The log hazard ratios (HRs) per SD difference were pooled by random effects meta-analysis. FINDINGS Of 21 eligible studies, 16 with 36,984 participants were included. During a mean follow-up of 7·0 years, 1519 myocardial infarctions, 1339 strokes, and 2028 combined endpoints (myocardial infarction, stroke, vascular death) occurred. Yearly cIMT progression was derived from two ultrasound visits 2-7 years (median 4 years) apart. For mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, the overall HR of the combined endpoint was 0·97 (95% CI 0·94-1·00) when adjusted for age, sex, and mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness, and 0·98 (0·95-1·01) when also adjusted for vascular risk factors. Although we detected no associations with cIMT progression in sensitivity analyses, the mean cIMT of the two ultrasound scans was positively and robustly associated with cardiovascular risk (HR for the combined endpoint 1·16, 95% CI 1·10-1·22, adjusted for age, sex, mean common carotid artery intima-media thickness progression, and vascular risk factors). In three studies including 3439 participants who had four ultrasound scans, cIMT progression did not correlate between occassions (reproducibility correlations between r=-0·06 and r=-0·02). INTERPRETATION The association between cIMT progression assessed from two ultrasound scans and cardiovascular risk in the general population remains unproven. No conclusion can be derived for the use of cIMT progression as a surrogate in clinical trials. FUNDING Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft.

Carotid Atherosclerosis Is a Stronger Predictor of Myocardial Infarction in Women Than in Men: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study of 6226 Persons: The Tromsø Study

Background and Purpose— Ultrasound of carotid arteries provides measures of intima media thickness (IMT) and plaque, both widely used as surrogate measures of cardiovascular disease. Although IMT and plaques are highly intercorrelated, the relationship between carotid plaque and IMT and cardiovascular disease has been conflicting. In this prospective, population-based study, we measured carotid IMT, total plaque area, and plaque echogenicity as predictors for first-ever myocardial infarction (MI). Methods— IMT, total plaque area, and plaque echogenicity were measured in 6226 men and women aged 25 to 84 years with no previous MI. The subjects were followed for 6 years and incident MI was registered. Results— During follow-up, MI occurred in 6.6% of men and 3.0% of women. The adjusted relative risk (RR; 95% CI) between the highest plaque area tertile versus no plaque was 1.56 (1.04 to 2.36) in men and 3.95 (2.16 to 7.19) in women. In women, there was a significant trend toward a higher MI risk with more echolucent plaque. The adjusted RR (95% CI) in the highest versus lowest IMT quartile was 1.73 (0.98 to 3.06) in men and 2.86 (1.07 to 7.65) in women. When we excluded bulb IMT from analyses, IMT did not predict MI in either sex. Conclusions— In a general population, carotid plaque area was a stronger predictor of first-ever MI than was IMT. Carotid atherosclerosis was a stronger risk factor for MI in women than in men. In women, the risk of MI increased with plaque echolucency.

Several common variants modulate heart rate, PR interval and QRS duration

Electrocardiographic measures are indicative of the function of the cardiac conduction system. To search for sequence variants that modulate heart rate, PR interval and QRS duration in individuals of European descent, we performed a genome-wide association study in ∼10,000 individuals and followed up the top signals in an additional ∼10,000 individuals. We identified several genome-wide significant associations (with P < 1.6 × 10−7). We identified one locus for heart rate (MYH6), four for PR interval (TBX5, SCN10A, CAV1 and ARHGAP24) and four for QRS duration (TBX5, SCN10A, 6p21 and 10q21). We tested for association between these loci and subjects with selected arrhythmias in Icelandic and Norwegian case-control sample sets. We observed correlations between TBX5 and CAV1 and atrial fibrillation (P = 4.0 × 10−5 and P = 0.00032, respectively), between TBX5 and advanced atrioventricular block (P = 0.0067), and between SCN10A and pacemaker implantation (P = 0.0029). We also replicated previously described associations with the QT interval.

Vitamin D and mortality: meta-analysis of individual participant data from a large consortium of cohort studies from Europe and the United States

Objective To investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (25(OH)D) and mortality in a large consortium of cohort studies paying particular attention to potential age, sex, season, and country differences. Design Meta-analysis of individual participant data of eight prospective cohort studies from Europe and the US. Setting General population. Participants 26 018 men and women aged 50-79 years Main outcome measures All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. Results 25(OH)D concentrations varied strongly by season (higher in summer), country (higher in US and northern Europe) and sex (higher in men), but no consistent trend with age was observed. During follow-up, 6695 study participants died, among whom 2624 died of cardiovascular diseases and 2227 died of cancer. For each cohort and analysis, 25(OH)D quintiles were defined with cohort and subgroup specific cut-off values. Comparing bottom versus top quintiles resulted in a pooled risk ratio of 1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) for all-cause mortality. Risk ratios for cardiovascular mortality were similar in magnitude to that for all-cause mortality in subjects both with and without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. With respect to cancer mortality, an association was only observed among subjects with a history of cancer (risk ratio, 1.70 (1.00 to 2.88)). Analyses using all quintiles suggest curvilinear, inverse, dose-response curves for the aforementioned relationships. No strong age, sex, season, or country specific differences were detected. Heterogeneity was low in most meta-analyses. Conclusions Despite levels of 25(OH)D strongly varying with country, sex, and season, the association between 25(OH)D level and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was remarkably consistent. Results from a long term randomised controlled trial addressing longevity are being awaited before vitamin D supplementation can be recommended in most individuals with low 25(OH)D levels.

Carotid Plaque Area and Intima-Media Thickness in Prediction of First-Ever Ischemic Stroke A 10-Year Follow-Up of 6584 Men and Women: The Tromsø Study

Background and Purpose— Carotid plaque and intima-media thickness (IMT) are recognized as risk factors for ischemic stroke, but their predictive value has been debated and varies between studies. The purpose of this longitudinal population-based study was to assess the risk of ischemic stroke associated with plaque area and IMT in the carotid artery. Methods— IMT and total plaque area in the right carotid artery were measured with ultrasound in 3240 men and 3344 women aged 25 to 84 years who participated in a population health study in 1994 to 1995. First-ever ischemic strokes were identified through linkage to hospital and national diagnosis registries, with follow-up until December 31, 2005. Results— Incident ischemic strokes occurred in 7.3% (n=235) of men and 4.8% (n=162) of women. The hazard ratio for 1 SD increase in square-root-transformed plaque area was 1.23 (95% CI, 1.09–1.38; P=0.0009) in men and 1.19 (95% CI, 1.01–1.41; P=0.04) in women when adjusted for other cardiovascular risk factors. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio in the highest quartile of plaque area versus no plaque was 1.73 (95% CI, 1.19–2.52; P=0.004) in men and 1.62 (95% CI, 1.04–2.53; P=0.03) in women. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratio for 1 SD increase in IMT was 1.08 (95% CI, 0.95–1.22; P=0.2) in men and 1.24 (95% CI, 1.05–1.48; P=0.01) in women. There were no differences in stroke risk across quartiles of IMT in multivariable analysis. Conclusions— In the present study, total plaque area appears to be a stronger predictor than IMT for first-ever ischemic stroke.

Prevalence of Asymptomatic Carotid Artery Stenosis in the General Population: An Individual Participant Data Meta-Analysis

Background and Purpose— In the discussion on the cost-effectiveness of screening, precise estimates of severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis are vital. Accordingly, we assessed the prevalence of moderate and severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis by age and sex using pooled cohort data. Methods— We performed an individual participant data meta-analysis (23 706 participants) of 4 population-based studies (Malmö Diet and Cancer Study, Tromsø, Carotid Atherosclerosis Progression Study, and Cardiovascular Health Study). Outcomes of interest were asymptomatic moderate (≥50%) and severe carotid stenosis (≥70%). Results— Prevalence of moderate asymptomatic carotid stenosis ranged from 0.2% (95% CI, 0.0% to 0.4%) in men aged <50 years to 7.5% (5.2% to 10.5%) in men aged ≥80 years. For women, this prevalence increased from 0% (0% to 0.2%) to 5.0% (3.1% to 7.5%). Prevalence of severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis ranged from 0.1% (0.0% to 0.3%) in men aged <50 years to 3.1% (1.7% to 5.3%) in men aged ≥80. For women, this prevalence increased from 0% (0.0% to 0.2%) to 0.9% (0.3% to 2.4%). Conclusions— The prevalence of severe asymptomatic carotid stenosis in the general population ranges from 0% to 3.1%, which is useful information in the discussion on the cost-effectiveness of screening.