Inger Njølstad

Estimation of ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease in Europe: the SCORE project

AIMS The SCORE project was initiated to develop a risk scoring system for use in the clinical management of cardiovascular risk in European clinical practice. METHODS AND RESULTS The project assembled a pool of datasets from 12 European cohort studies, mainly carried out in general population settings. There were 20,5178 persons (88,080 women and 11,7098 men) representing 2.7 million person years of follow-up. There were 7934 cardiovascular deaths, of which 5652 were deaths from coronary heart disease. Ten-year risk of fatal cardiovascular disease was calculated using a Weibull model in which age was used as a measure of exposure time to risk rather than as a risk factor. Separate estimation equations were calculated for coronary heart disease and for non-coronary cardiovascular disease. These were calculated for high-risk and low-risk regions of Europe. Two parallel estimation models were developed, one based on total cholesterol and the other on total cholesterol/HDL cholesterol ratio. The risk estimations are displayed graphically in simple risk charts. Predictive value of the risk charts was examined by applying them to persons aged 45-64; areas under ROC curves ranged from 0.71 to 0.84. CONCLUSIONS The SCORE risk estimation system offers direct estimation of total fatal cardiovascular risk in a format suited to the constraints of clinical practice.

Diabetes Mellitus, Fasting Glucose, and Risk of Cause-Specific Death

BACKGROUND The extent to which diabetes mellitus or hyperglycemia is related to risk of death from cancer or other nonvascular conditions is uncertain. METHODS We calculated hazard ratios for cause-specific death, according to baseline diabetes status or fasting glucose level, from individual-participant data on 123,205 deaths among 820,900 people in 97 prospective studies. RESULTS After adjustment for age, sex, smoking status, and body-mass index, hazard ratios among persons with diabetes as compared with persons without diabetes were as follows: 1.80 (95% confidence interval [CI], 1.71 to 1.90) for death from any cause, 1.25 (95% CI, 1.19 to 1.31) for death from cancer, 2.32 (95% CI, 2.11 to 2.56) for death from vascular causes, and 1.73 (95% CI, 1.62 to 1.85) for death from other causes. Diabetes (vs. no diabetes) was moderately associated with death from cancers of the liver, pancreas, ovary, colorectum, lung, bladder, and breast. Aside from cancer and vascular disease, diabetes (vs. no diabetes) was also associated with death from renal disease, liver disease, pneumonia and other infectious diseases, mental disorders, nonhepatic digestive diseases, external causes, intentional self-harm, nervous-system disorders, and chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Hazard ratios were appreciably reduced after further adjustment for glycemia measures, but not after adjustment for systolic blood pressure, lipid levels, inflammation or renal markers. Fasting glucose levels exceeding 100 mg per deciliter (5.6 mmol per liter), but not levels of 70 to 100 mg per deciliter (3.9 to 5.6 mmol per liter), were associated with death. A 50-year-old with diabetes died, on average, 6 years earlier than a counterpart without diabetes, with about 40% of the difference in survival attributable to excess nonvascular deaths. CONCLUSIONS In addition to vascular disease, diabetes is associated with substantial premature death from several cancers, infectious diseases, external causes, intentional self-harm, and degenerative disorders, independent of several major risk factors. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others.).

Lung cancer susceptibility locus at 5p15.33

We carried out a genome-wide association study of lung cancer (3,259 cases and 4,159 controls), followed by replication in 2,899 cases and 5,573 controls. Two uncorrelated disease markers at 5p15.33, rs402710 and rs2736100 were detected by the genome-wide data (P = 2 × 10−7 and P = 4 × 10−6) and replicated by the independent study series (P = 7 × 10−5 and P = 0.016). The susceptibility region contains two genes, TERT and CLPTM1L, suggesting that one or both may have a role in lung cancer etiology.

A sequence variant in ZFHX3 on 16q22 associates with atrial fibrillation and ischemic stroke

We expanded our genome-wide association study on atrial fibrillation (AF) in Iceland, which previously identified risk variants on 4q25, and tested the most significant associations in samples from Iceland, Norway and the United States. A variant in the ZFHX3 gene on chromosome 16q22, rs7193343-T, associated significantly with AF (odds ratio OR = 1.21, P = 1.4 × 10−10). This variant also associated with ischemic stroke (OR = 1.11, P = 0.00054) and cardioembolic stroke (OR = 1.22, P = 0.00021) in a combined analysis of five stroke samples.

Cohort profile: The Tromsø Study

The Tromso Study was initiated in 1974 in an attempt to help combat the high mortality of cardiovascular diseases in Norway, that was particularly pronounced among middle-aged men. In the mid-1970s, Norwegian men had a 20% risk of dying of myocardial infarction (MI) before the age of 75 years. The situation in Northern Norway was even worse. The primary aim of the Tromso Study was to determine causes of the high cardiovascular mortality, and also to develop ways of preventing heart attacks and strokes. This was reflected through the first name of the study: The Tromso Heart Study. However, during the 37 years since the first examination of the Tromso Study took place, increasing emphasis has been put on other chronic diseases and conditions, in particular atrial fibrillation, venous thromboembolism, diabetes mellitus, osteoporosis and fractures. It has been a deliberate policy to invite a wide range of faculty research groups to join in with subprojects in the surveys, and there are currently some 100 different ongoing research projects based on the data from the consecutive six surveys. The study was initially funded by the University of Tromso, and has been so for the entire period since 1974, but there have also been substantial contributions, directly and indirectly from, for example, the National Screening Services, the Research Council of Norway, Northern Norway Regional Health Authority, Norwegian Council on Cardiovascular Diseases and Norwegian Foundation for Health and Rehabilitation. Teams of investigators approach public research programmes for funding of the different examinations conducted. Tromso is the largest city in Northern Norway. It is situated 400 km north of the Arctic Circle, and has approximately 67 000 inhabitants. The physical living conditions are dominated by dramatic changes in the light with 2 months of midnight sun and 2 months of the polar night. However, due to the Gulf Stream, the climate is relatively mild, the latitude (698N) taken into account.

Smoking, Serum Lipids, Blood Pressure, and Sex Differences in Myocardial Infarction A 12-Year Follow-up of the Finnmark Study

BACKGROUND Few epidemiological studies have investigated the relative importance of major coronary risk factors in the two sexes within the same study population. In particular, it is not clear whether smoking carries a similar risk of coronary heart disease in men and women. METHODS AND RESULTS The associations between smoking, serum lipids, blood pressure, and myocardial infarction were examined in a population-based prospective study of 11,843 men and women aged 35 to 52 years at entry. During 12 years, 495 cases of first myocardial infarction among men and 103 cases among women were identified. Myocardial infarction incidence was 4.6 times higher among men. The incidence was increased sixfold in women and threefold in men who smoked at least 20 cigarettes per day compared with never-smokers, and the rate in female heavy smokers exceeded that of never-smoking men. Multivariate analysis identified current smoking as a stronger risk factor in women (relative risk, 3.3; 95% confidence interval [CI], 2.1 to 5.1) than in men (relative risk, 1.9; 95% CI, 1.6 to 2.3). Among those under 45 years old at entry, the smoking-related sex difference was more pronounced (in women: relative risk, 7.1; 95% CI, 2.6 to 19.1) (in men: relative risk, 2.3; 95% CI, 1.6 to 3.2). Serum total cholesterol, HDL cholesterol, and systolic blood pressure were also highly significant predictors in both sexes. CONCLUSIONS Smoking was a stronger risk factor for myocardial infarction in middle-aged women than in men. Relative risks associated with serum lipids and blood pressure were similar despite large sex differences in myocardial infarction incidence rates.

Carotid Atherosclerosis Is a Stronger Predictor of Myocardial Infarction in Women Than in Men: A 6-Year Follow-Up Study of 6226 Persons: The Tromsø Study

Background and Purpose— Ultrasound of carotid arteries provides measures of intima media thickness (IMT) and plaque, both widely used as surrogate measures of cardiovascular disease. Although IMT and plaques are highly intercorrelated, the relationship between carotid plaque and IMT and cardiovascular disease has been conflicting. In this prospective, population-based study, we measured carotid IMT, total plaque area, and plaque echogenicity as predictors for first-ever myocardial infarction (MI). Methods— IMT, total plaque area, and plaque echogenicity were measured in 6226 men and women aged 25 to 84 years with no previous MI. The subjects were followed for 6 years and incident MI was registered. Results— During follow-up, MI occurred in 6.6% of men and 3.0% of women. The adjusted relative risk (RR; 95% CI) between the highest plaque area tertile versus no plaque was 1.56 (1.04 to 2.36) in men and 3.95 (2.16 to 7.19) in women. In women, there was a significant trend toward a higher MI risk with more echolucent plaque. The adjusted RR (95% CI) in the highest versus lowest IMT quartile was 1.73 (0.98 to 3.06) in men and 2.86 (1.07 to 7.65) in women. When we excluded bulb IMT from analyses, IMT did not predict MI in either sex. Conclusions— In a general population, carotid plaque area was a stronger predictor of first-ever MI than was IMT. Carotid atherosclerosis was a stronger risk factor for MI in women than in men. In women, the risk of MI increased with plaque echolucency.

Cancer Incidence and Mortality After Treatment With Folic Acid and Vitamin B12

CONTEXT Recently, concern has been raised about the safety of folic acid, particularly in relation to cancer risk. OBJECTIVE To evaluate effects of treatment with B vitamins on cancer outcomes and all-cause mortality in 2 randomized controlled trials. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Combined analysis and extended follow-up of participants from 2 randomized, double-blind, placebo-controlled clinical trials (Norwegian Vitamin Trial and Western Norway B Vitamin Intervention Trial). A total of 6837 patients with ischemic heart disease were treated with B vitamins or placebo between 1998 and 2005, and were followed up through December 31, 2007. INTERVENTIONS Oral treatment with folic acid (0.8 mg/d) plus vitamin B(12) (0.4 mg/d) and vitamin B(6) (40 mg/d) (n = 1708); folic acid (0.8 mg/d) plus vitamin B(12) (0.4 mg/d) (n = 1703); vitamin B(6) alone (40 mg/d) (n = 1705); or placebo (n = 1721). MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES Cancer incidence, cancer mortality, and all-cause mortality. RESULTS During study treatment, median serum folate concentration increased more than 6-fold among participants given folic acid. After a median 39 months of treatment and an additional 38 months of posttrial observational follow-up, 341 participants (10.0%) who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12) vs 288 participants (8.4%) who did not receive such treatment were diagnosed with cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 1.21; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.03-1.41; P = .02). A total of 136 (4.0%) who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12) vs 100 (2.9%) who did not receive such treatment died from cancer (HR, 1.38; 95% CI, 1.07-1.79; P = .01). A total of 548 patients (16.1%) who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12) vs 473 (13.8%) who did not receive such treatment died from any cause (HR, 1.18; 95% CI, 1.04-1.33; P = .01). Results were mainly driven by increased lung cancer incidence in participants who received folic acid plus vitamin B(12). Vitamin B(6) treatment was not associated with any significant effects. CONCLUSION Treatment with folic acid plus vitamin B(12) was associated with increased cancer outcomes and all-cause mortality in patients with ischemic heart disease in Norway, where there is no folic acid fortification of foods. TRIAL REGISTRATION clinicaltrials.gov Identifier: NCT00671346.

Several common variants modulate heart rate, PR interval and QRS duration

Electrocardiographic measures are indicative of the function of the cardiac conduction system. To search for sequence variants that modulate heart rate, PR interval and QRS duration in individuals of European descent, we performed a genome-wide association study in ∼10,000 individuals and followed up the top signals in an additional ∼10,000 individuals. We identified several genome-wide significant associations (with P < 1.6 × 10−7). We identified one locus for heart rate (MYH6), four for PR interval (TBX5, SCN10A, CAV1 and ARHGAP24) and four for QRS duration (TBX5, SCN10A, 6p21 and 10q21). We tested for association between these loci and subjects with selected arrhythmias in Icelandic and Norwegian case-control sample sets. We observed correlations between TBX5 and CAV1 and atrial fibrillation (P = 4.0 × 10−5 and P = 0.00032, respectively), between TBX5 and advanced atrioventricular block (P = 0.0067), and between SCN10A and pacemaker implantation (P = 0.0029). We also replicated previously described associations with the QT interval.

Vitamin D and mortality: meta-analysis of individual participant data from a large consortium of cohort studies from Europe and the United States

Objective To investigate the association between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations (25(OH)D) and mortality in a large consortium of cohort studies paying particular attention to potential age, sex, season, and country differences. Design Meta-analysis of individual participant data of eight prospective cohort studies from Europe and the US. Setting General population. Participants 26 018 men and women aged 50-79 years Main outcome measures All-cause, cardiovascular, and cancer mortality. Results 25(OH)D concentrations varied strongly by season (higher in summer), country (higher in US and northern Europe) and sex (higher in men), but no consistent trend with age was observed. During follow-up, 6695 study participants died, among whom 2624 died of cardiovascular diseases and 2227 died of cancer. For each cohort and analysis, 25(OH)D quintiles were defined with cohort and subgroup specific cut-off values. Comparing bottom versus top quintiles resulted in a pooled risk ratio of 1.57 (95% CI 1.36 to 1.81) for all-cause mortality. Risk ratios for cardiovascular mortality were similar in magnitude to that for all-cause mortality in subjects both with and without a history of cardiovascular disease at baseline. With respect to cancer mortality, an association was only observed among subjects with a history of cancer (risk ratio, 1.70 (1.00 to 2.88)). Analyses using all quintiles suggest curvilinear, inverse, dose-response curves for the aforementioned relationships. No strong age, sex, season, or country specific differences were detected. Heterogeneity was low in most meta-analyses. Conclusions Despite levels of 25(OH)D strongly varying with country, sex, and season, the association between 25(OH)D level and all-cause and cause-specific mortality was remarkably consistent. Results from a long term randomised controlled trial addressing longevity are being awaited before vitamin D supplementation can be recommended in most individuals with low 25(OH)D levels.