Elodie Maître d'Hôtel

Trade Policy Inconsistency and Maize Price Volatility: An ARCH Approach in Kenya

The 2007-2008 food crisis and current food price swings led economists to re-evaluate the potential for policy instruments to manage food price volatility. When world prices are unstable, the use of import tariffs in importing countries to stabilize price is theoretically not the first best policy. But in practice many countries use import tariffs with intention to stabilize price - and other reasons-, which sometimes achieve some price stabilization, sometimes not. We address the question why is this policy sometimes a success and sometimes a failure? In the context of Kenya, we show that while domestic price levels are mainly explained by seasonal cycles, pluri-annual cycles, and international prices, domestic price volatility is mainly explained by inconsistent moves of trade policy. Thus, the ability of a policy regime to lower food price volatility does not depend on the nature of the policy instrument only, but also on the government ability to implement it. We define a consistent policy adjustment as a tariff decrease when world price increases and a tariff increase when world price is decreasing. We use an autoregressive conditionally heteroskedastic model of price determination in which prices and prices volatility are jointly estimated, using monthly data over the 1994-2009 period in Kenya.

Linking risk aversion, time preference and fertilizer use in Burkina Faso

Abstract This paper investigates whether Burkinabe maize farmers’ fertiliser-use decisions are correlated with their risk and time preferences. We conducted a survey and a series of hypothetical experiments on a sample of 1500 farmers. We find that more patient farmers do use more fertiliser, but it is only because they plant more maize (a fertiliser-intensive crop) rather than because they use more fertiliser per hectare of maize planted. Conversely, we find no statistically significant link between risk aversion and fertiliser use. We use a simple two-period model, which suggests that risk aversion may indeed have an ambiguous effect on fertiliser use.