Elvina Viennet

Assessment of vector/host contact: comparison of animal-baited traps and UV-light/suction trap for collecting Culicoides biting midges (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae), vectors of Orbiviruses

BackgroundThe emergence and massive spread of bluetongue in Western Europe during 2006-2008 had disastrous consequences for sheep and cattle production and confirmed the ability of Palaearctic Culicoides (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) to transmit the virus. Some aspects of Culicoides ecology, especially host-seeking and feeding behaviors, remain insufficiently described due to the difficulty of collecting them directly on a bait animal, the most reliable method to evaluate biting rates.Our aim was to compare typical animal-baited traps (drop trap and direct aspiration) to both a new sticky cover trap and a UV-light/suction trap (the most commonly used method to collect Culicoides).Methods/resultsCollections were made from 1.45 hours before sunset to 1.45 hours after sunset in June/July 2009 at an experimental sheep farm (INRA, Nouzilly, Western France), with 3 replicates of a 4 sites × 4 traps randomized Latin square using one sheep per site. Collected Culicoides individuals were sorted morphologically to species, sex and physiological stages for females. Sibling species were identified using a molecular assay. A total of 534 Culicoides belonging to 17 species was collected. Abundance was maximal in the drop trap (232 females and 4 males from 10 species) whereas the diversity was the highest in the UV-light/suction trap (136 females and 5 males from 15 species). Significant between-trap differences abundance and parity rates were observed.ConclusionsOnly the direct aspiration collected exclusively host-seeking females, despite a concern that human manipulation may influence estimation of the biting rate. The sticky cover trap assessed accurately the biting rate of abundant species even if it might act as an interception trap. The drop trap collected the highest abundance of Culicoides and may have caught individuals not attracted by sheep but by its structure. Finally, abundances obtained using the UV-light/suction trap did not estimate accurately Culicoides biting rate.

Host preferences of Palaearctic Culicoides biting midges: implications for transmission of orbiviruses

Feeding success depends on host availability, host defensive reactions and host preferences. Host choice is a critical determinant of the intensity at which pathogens are transmitted. The aim of the current study was to describe host preferences of Palaearctic Culicoides species (Diptera: Ceratopogonidae) Latreille using traps baited with the five different host species of poultry, horse, cattle, sheep and goat. Collections were carried out nightly in July and August 2009 in western France with three replicates of a 5 × 5 randomized Latin square (five sites, five hosts). Moreover, an ultraviolet (UV) light/suction trap was operated during host‐baited collections to correlate Culicoides biting rates and UV light/suction trap catches. A total of 660 Culicoides belonging to 12 species, but comprised mainly of Culicoides scoticus Downes and Kettle, Culicoides dewulfi Goetghebuer and Culicoides obsoletus Meigen, were collected on animal baits. Abundance was highest for the horse, which accounted for 95% of all Culicoides caught, representing 10 species. The horse, the largest bait, was the most attractive host, even when abundance data were corrected by weight, body surface or Kleibers scaling factor. Culicoides obsoletus was the only dominant species attracted by birds. Both C. scoticus and C. dewulfi were collected mainly from the upper body of the horse. Finally, the quantification of host preferences allows for discussion of implications for the transmission of Culicoides‐borne pathogens such as bluetongue virus.

Host-Seeking Activity of Bluetongue Virus Vectors: Endo/Exophagy and Circadian Rhythm of Culicoides in Western Europe

Feeding success of free-living hematophagous insects depends on their ability to be active when hosts are available and to reach places where hosts are accessible. When the hematophagous insect is a vector of pathogens, determining the components of host-seeking behavior is of primary interest for the assessment of transmission risk. Our aim was to describe endo/exophagy and circadian host-seeking activity of Palaearctic Culicoides species, which are major biting pests and arbovirus vectors, using drop traps and suction traps baited with four sheep, as bluetongue virus hosts. Collections were carried out in the field, a largely-open stable and an enclosed stable during six collection periods of 24 hours in April/May, in late June and in September/October 2010 in western France. A total of 986 Culicoides belonging to 13 species, mainly C. brunnicans and C. obsoletus, was collected on animal baits. Culicoides brunnicans was clearly exophagic, whereas C. obsoletus was able to enter stables. Culicoides brunnicans exhibited a bimodal pattern of host-seeking activity with peaks just after sunrise and sunset. Culicoides obsoletus was active before sunset in spring and autumn and after sunset in summer, thus illustrating influence of other parameters than light, especially temperature. Description of host-seeking behaviors allowed us to discuss control strategies for transmission of Culicoides-borne pathogens, such as bluetongue virus. However, practical vector-control recommendations are difficult to provide because of the variation in the degree of endophagy and time of host-seeking activity.

Interaction of mean temperature and daily fluctuation influences dengue incidence in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Local weather influences the transmission of the dengue virus. Most studies analyzing the relationship between dengue and climate are based on relatively coarse aggregate measures such as mean temperature. Here, we include both mean temperature and daily fluctuations in temperature in modelling dengue transmission in Dhaka, the capital of Bangladesh. We used a negative binomial generalized linear model, adjusted for rainfall, anomalies in sea surface temperature (an index for El Niño-Southern Oscillation), population density, the number of dengue cases in the previous month, and the long term temporal trend in dengue incidence. In addition to the significant associations of mean temperature and temperature fluctuation with dengue incidence, we found interaction of mean and temperature fluctuation significantly influences disease transmission at a lag of one month. High mean temperature with low fluctuation increases dengue incidence one month later. Besides temperature, dengue incidence was also influenced by sea surface temperature anomalies in the current and previous month, presumably as a consequence of concomitant anomalies in the annual rainfall cycle. Population density exerted a significant positive influence on dengue incidence indicating increasing risk of dengue in over-populated Dhaka. Understanding these complex relationships between climate, population, and dengue incidence will help inform outbreak prediction and control.

Bionomic response of Aedes aegypti to two future climate change scenarios in far north Queensland, Australia: implications for dengue outbreaks

BackgroundDengue viruses are transmitted by anthropophilic mosquitoes and infect approximately 50 million humans annually. To investigate impacts of future climate change on dengue virus transmission, we investigated bionomics of the mosquito vector, Aedes aegypti.MethodsUsing a dynamic life table simulation model (the Container inhabiting mosquito simulation CIMSiM) and statistically downscaled daily values for future climate, we assessed climate change induced changes to mosquito bionomics. Simulations of Ae. aegypti populations for current (1991-2011) and future climate (2046-2065) were conducted for the city of Cairns, Queensland, the population centre with most dengue virus transmission in Australia. Female mosquito abundance, wet weight, and the extrinsic incubation period for dengue virus in these mosquitoes were estimated for current and future climate (MPI ECHAM 5 model, B1 and A2 emission scenarios).ResultsOverall mosquito abundance is predicted to change, but results were equivocal for different climate change scenarios. Aedes aegypti abundance is predicted to increase under the B1, but decrease under the A2 scenario. Mosquitoes are predicted to have a smaller body mass in a future climate. Shorter extrinsic incubation periods are projected.ConclusionsIt is therefore unclear whether dengue risk would increase or decrease in tropical Australia with climate change. Our findings challenge the prevailing view that a future, warmer climate will lead to larger mosquito populations and a definite increase in dengue transmission. Whilst general predictions can be made about future mosquito borne disease incidence, cautious interpretation is necessary due to interaction between local environment, human behaviour and built environment, dengue virus, and vectors.

The emergence of dengue in Bangladesh: Epidemiology, challenges and future disease risk

Dengue occurred sporadically in Bangladesh from 1964 until a large epidemic in 2000 established the virus. We trace dengue from the time it was first identified in Bangladesh and identify factors favourable to future dengue haemorrhagic fever epidemics. The epidemic in 2000 was likely due to introduction of a dengue virus strain from a nearby endemic country, probably Thailand. Cessation of dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) spraying, climatic, socio-demographic, and lifestyle factors also contributed to epidemic transmission. The largest number of cases was notified in 2002 and since then reported outbreaks have generally declined, although with increased notifications in alternate years. The apparent decline might be partially due to public awareness with consequent reduction in mosquito breeding and increased prevalence of immunity. However, passive hospital-based surveillance has changed with mandatory serological confirmation now required for case reporting. Further, a large number of cases remain undetected because only patients with severe dengue require hospitalisation. Thus, the reduction in notification numbers may be an artefact of the surveillance system. Indeed, population-based serological survey indicates that dengue transmission continues to be common. In the future, the absence of active interventions, unplanned urbanisation, environmental deterioration, increasing population mobility, and economic factors will heighten dengue risk. Projected increases in temperature and rainfall may exacerbate this.

Public Health Responses to and Challenges for the Control of Dengue Transmission in High-Income Countries: Four Case Studies

Dengue has a negative impact in low- and lower middle-income countries, but also affects upper middle- and high-income countries. Despite the efforts at controlling this disease, it is unclear why dengue remains an issue in affluent countries. A better understanding of dengue epidemiology and its burden, and those of chikungunya virus and Zika virus which share vectors with dengue, is required to prevent the emergence of these diseases in high-income countries in the future. The purpose of this review was to assess the relative burden of dengue in four high-income countries and to appraise the similarities and differences in dengue transmission. We searched PubMed, ISI Web of Science, and Google Scholar using specific keywords for articles published up to 05 May 2016. We found that outbreaks rarely occur where only Aedes albopictus is present. The main similarities between countries uncovered by our review are the proximity to dengue-endemic countries, the presence of a competent mosquito vector, a largely nonimmune population, and a lack of citizens’ engagement in control of mosquito breeding. We identified important epidemiological and environmental issues including the increase of local transmission despite control efforts, population growth, difficulty locating larval sites, and increased human mobility from neighboring endemic countries. Budget cuts in health and lack of practical vaccines contribute to an increased risk. To be successful, dengue-control programs for high-income countries must consider the epidemiology of dengue in other countries and use this information to minimize virus importation, improve the control of the cryptic larval habitat, and engage the community in reducing vector breeding. Finally, the presence of a communicable disease center is critical for managing and reducing future disease risks.

Testing the impact of virus importation rates and future climate change on dengue activity in Malaysia using a mechanistic entomology and disease model

We aimed to reparameterize and validate an existing dengue model, comprising an entomological component (CIMSiM) and a disease component (DENSiM) for application in Malaysia. With the model we aimed to measure the effect of importation rate on dengue incidence, and to determine the potential impact of moderate climate change (a 1 °C temperature increase) on dengue activity. Dengue models (comprising CIMSiM and DENSiM) were reparameterized for a simulated Malaysian village of 10 000 people, and validated against monthly dengue case data from the district of Petaling Jaya in the state of Selangor. Simulations were also performed for 2008-2012 for variable virus importation rates (ranging from 1 to 25 per week) and dengue incidence determined. Dengue incidence in the period 2010-2012 was modelled, twice, with observed daily weather and with a 1 °C increase, the latter to simulate moderate climate change. Strong concordance between simulated and observed monthly dengue cases was observed (up to r = 0·72). There was a linear relationship between importation and incidence. However, a doubling of dengue importation did not equate to a doubling of dengue activity. The largest individual dengue outbreak was observed with the lowest dengue importation rate. Moderate climate change resulted in an overall decrease in dengue activity over a 3-year period, linked to high human seroprevalence early on in the simulation. Our results suggest that moderate reductions in importation with control programmes may not reduce the frequency of large outbreaks. Moderate increases in temperature do not necessarily lead to greater dengue incidence.

Projections of increased and decreased dengue incidence under climate change

Dengue is the worlds most prevalent mosquito-borne disease, with more than 200 million people each year becoming infected. We used a mechanistic virus transmission model to determine whether climate warming would change dengue transmission in Australia. Using two climate models each with two carbon emission scenarios, we calculated future dengue epidemic potential for the period 2046-2064. Using the ECHAM5 model, decreased dengue transmission was predicted under the A2 carbon emission scenario, whereas some increases are likely under the B1 scenario. Dengue epidemic potential may decrease under climate warming due to mosquito breeding sites becoming drier and mosquito survivorship declining. These results contradict most previous studies that use correlative models to show increased dengue transmission under climate warming. Dengue epidemiology is determined by a complex interplay between climatic, human host, and pathogen factors. It is therefore naive to assume a simple relationship between climate and incidence, and incorrect to state that climate warming will uniformly increase dengue transmission, although in general the health impacts of climate change will be negative.

Football fans and fevers: dengue and the World Cup in Brazil

Brazil—famous for its vibrant culture, wilderness, food, and beaches—is a major destination for travellers, including football lovers. Next month the Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA) World Cup will bring more than a million visitors to the country. Individuals travelling to new areas can bring pathogens with them, be exposed to infections they have not encountered previously, or return to their homes and infect others. World Cup spectators could risk acquiring viral hepatitis, infl uenza, chlamydia, typhoid, Escherischia coli, rabies, and others, among the many pathogens with which we share our environment, and sometimes our bodies. As well as zoonotic, respiratory, enteric, and sexually transmitted infections, World Cup fans might be at risk for vector-borne diseases. Vectors have come and gone in Brazil. The malaria vector Anopheles gambiae sensu lato was introduced in 1930, but subsequently eliminated. Aedes aegypti, the main vector of dengue, was eliminated from Brazil in 1955, but returned in the 1970s. Risk can be modifi ed, and sometimes even eliminated, via vector control programmes. Dengue has been endemic in several Brazilian cities since 1986, but despite vector control programmes Brazil reported 1·4 million dengue cases in 2013. Last year, Hay suggested World Cup fans might be at risk for dengue. So how signifi cant is the risk of dengue during the FIFA World Cup? In The Lancet Infectious Diseases, Rachel Lowe and colleagues present fi ndings derived from spatiotemporal modelling to forecast dengue risk at a fi ne spatial scale. The investigators project risk for microregions in Brazil and calculate risk levels that are useful for planning dengue control in the 12 cities where matches will be played. Their early warning system is based on a spatiotemporal Bayesian hierarchical model framework driven by climate and non-climate information. The work by Lowe and colleagues provides important information on risk in diff erent areas during the World Cup. We wonder how public health programmes and individual behaviour will modify this risk, and what the consequences will be for fans and for dengue epidemiology? Risk for dengue infection is determined by the likelihood of A aegypti bites and number of infected bites. Informed World Cup fans will protect themselves from A aegypti through choice of screened or airconditioned accommodation, the use of insecticide, and appropriate light coloured and loose fi tting clothing. Risk for disease is determined by virus characteristics and by the immune response, age, sex, and comorbidities of the host. Some travellers might be infected, some of whom will get sick, but few, if any, will die. Overseas visitors are unlikely to arrive with dengue viraemia, and the eff ect of the World Cup on dengue epidemiology in Brazil will be small, although increased domestic travel might have an eff ect. Travellers, particularly those attending matches in high-risk cities, identifi ed as Recife, Fortaleza, and Natal by Lowe and colleagues, might return home with dengue. Undoubtedly, Brazilian authorities, drawing on their vast public health experience, are instituting intensive vector control at stadiums, airports, and in high risk areas. These eff orts will greatly reduce risk. But many will come from temperate European countries without A aegypti, although the secondary vector Aedes albopictus is present in southern Europe. Those who return home unwell will seek treatment. Doctors must be aware of causes for febrile illness in World Cup spectators. Diagnosis of dengue is important for exclusion of other diagnoses, such as malaria. Symptomatic treatment will be suffi cient for most patients with dengue, apart from the few individuals, if any, who develop severe dengue. We expect that few spectators will originate from tropical low-income and middle-income countries, and those who do will probably be wealthy, able to access good medical care, and likely to protect themselves from mosquito bites. Even in those who infect mosquitoes on their return, most will live in dengue endemic countries where the introduction of Brazilian dengue virus will make little diff erence to local epidemiology. Perhaps a few will return to tropical centres in wealthy countries where A aegypti is present but where the incidence of dengue is low. One such example is Cairns in far north Queensland, Australia, where dengue epidemics causally linked to, but geographically distant from, the World Cup in Brazil are possible. The FIFA World Cup is a major sporting event. The results for dengue epidemiology, and on the football pitch, will be fascinating. We await both outcomes with interest. Lancet Infect Dis 2014