Emanuela Cardia

The dynamics of a small open economy in response to monetary, fiscal, and productivity shocks

Abstract This paper evaluates empirically the relative importance of monetary and fiscal versus technology shocks in an open economy characterized by perfect international capital mobility. The variance-covariance matrix of these shocks is estimated. A stochastic model is used to perform numerical simulations. The results show that persistent shocks to productivity can reproduce several empirical regularities (including the puzzling high correlation between national saving and investment) remarkably well and that monetary and fiscal shocks play a minor role.

THE TRANSMISSION OF MONETARY POLICY IN A MULTISECTOR ECONOMY

This article constructs and estimates a sticky-price, Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium model with heterogeneous production sectors. Firms in different sectors vary in their price rigidity, production technology, and the combination of material and investment inputs. In particular, firms buy inputs from all sectors using the actual Input–Output Matrix and Capital Flow Table of the U.S. economy. By relaxing the standard assumption of symmetry, this model allows idiosyncratic sectoral dynamics in response to monetary policy shocks. The model is estimated by the Generalized Method of Moments using sectoral and aggregate U.S. time series.

Habit formation and the persistence of monetary shocks

Abstract The dynamic effects and relative importance of monetary shocks in the US business cycle are studied using a sticky-price dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with habit formation and capital adjustment costs. The model is estimated via maximum likelihood using data on output, real money balances, and the nominal interest rate. Econometric results indicate that the model has a strong internal propagation mechanism that can explain the persistent and hump-shaped response of US output and consumption to monetary shocks.

Intergenerational Time Transfers and Childcare

Although intergenerational transfers of time in the form of grandparenting are substantial, little is known about their role and importance. In this paper, we calibrate an overlapping generations model extended to allow for both time and monetary transfers to the US economy. We use simulations to show that time transfers have important positive effects on labor supply and capital accumulation. We also find that subsidizing the time of the retired spent grandparenting is the most effective child care policy when time transfers are allowed, while subsidizing child care expenses is the most effective when time transfers are not. They both lead to higher levels of child care with positive effects on output and capital accumulation. (Copyright: Elsevier)

Distortionary Taxation and Labor Supply

This paper examines empirically the effects of distortionary taxation on labor supply using a general equilibrium framework. The long-term relations predicted by the model are derived and tested using data from Canada, United States, Germany, and Japan. In all these countries, labor-tax changes are found to be persistent and to have played an important role in the observed downward trend in hours worked.

Crowding Out in Open Economies: Results from a Simulation Study

It has recently been shown that industrialized countries in the 1970s and 1980s are characterized by a high correlation between national saving and investment. This regularly is considered.puzzling in the context of highly integrated international capital markets. In this paper, the author shows that both the failure of real interest parity and productivity changes are each sufficient to generate a high positive correlation between national saving and investment. These results indicate that it is easier than previously thought to reproduce a high correlation between saving and investment in models with perfect capital mobility.

Altruism, intergenerational transfers of time and bequests

Abstract This paper uses a standard two-period overlapping generation model to examine the behavior of an economy where both intergenerational transfers of time and bequests are available. While bequests have been examined extensively, time transfers have received little or no attention in the literature. Assuming a log-linear utility function and a Cobb–Douglas production function, we derive an explicit solution for the dynamics and show that altruistic intergenerational time transfers can take place in presence of a binding non-negativity constraint on bequests. We also show that with either type of transfers capital is an increasing function of the intergenerational degree of altruism. However while with time transfers the labor supply of the young increases with the degree of altruism, with bequests it may decrease.

Sectoral price rigidity and aggregate dynamics

This paper studies the business cycle implications of sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity using a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model is estimated by the Simulated Method of Moments using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are consistent with those reported in micro-based studies. We show that heterogeneity in price rigidity is the primary factor explaining the heterogeneity in the responses of sectoral output and inflation to a monetary policy shock. We also find that ignoring sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity leads to the mismeasurement of the relative importance of aggregate and sector-specific shocks in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations.

Optimal Public Spending in a Business Cycle Model

We build a model of optimal time-consistent public spending in a dynamic general equilibrium model of the business cycle. We analyze the welfare properties of optimal public spending and characterize the optimal response of spending to exogenous economic shocks.

Sectoral Price Rigidity and Aggregate Dynamics

This paper studies the business cycle implications of sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity using a highly disaggregated multi-sector model. The model is estimated by the Simulated Method of Moments using a mix of aggregate and sectoral U.S. data. The frequencies of price changes implied by our estimates are consistent with those reported in micro-based studies. We show that heterogeneity in price rigidity is the primary factor explaining the heterogeneity in the responses of sectoral output and inflation to a monetary policy shock. We also find that ignoring sectoral heterogeneity in price rigidity leads to the mismeasurement of the relative importance of aggregate and sector-specific shocks in aggregate and sectoral fluctuations.