Emilio Duhau

Predicting land-cover and land-use change in the urban fringe A case in Morelia city, Mexico

Land-cover and land-use (LCLU) change was quantified for the last 35 years within and in the vicinity of a fast growing city in Mexico, using rectified aerial photographs and geographic information systems (GIS). LCLU change was projected for the next 20 years using Markov chains and regression analyses. The study explored the relationships between urban growth and landscape change, and between urban growth and population growth. The analysis of Markov matrices suggests that the highest LCLU attractor is the city of Morelia, followed by plantations and croplands. Grasslands and shrublands are the least stable categories. The most powerful use of the Markov transition matrices seems to be at the descriptive rather than the predictive level. Linear regression between urban and population growth offered a more robust prediction of urban growth in Morelia. Hence, we suggest that linear regression should be used when projecting growth tendencies of cities in regions with similar characteristics.

Nuevas centralidades y prácticas de consumo en la Ciudad de México: del microcomercio al hipermercado

This paper addresses the phenomenon of the simultaneous and explosive expansion since the late eighties all over Mexico City metropolitan space, of the globalized retail chains and the street informal micro commerce. The processes linked to this phenomenon are explored by examining evidences regarding metropolitan population consumption practices, observed in a sample of neighbourhoods areas concerning a wide spectrum of urban environments and socio-spatial strata co-existing in the metropolitan territory. The analysis shows, on one hand, a transformation of consumption practices that, as it was expected, are differentiated according to residential location and its corresponding urban environment, individual and household socio-economic level, and alternative forms of mobility (private car – public transport). But, on the other hand, that these practices are also shaped by a specific economy of mobility and by specific compatibilities between globalized consumption forms -which tend to incorporate, though under different modalities, all social classes-, and the role played by the informal micro commerce.

Las políticas sociales en América Latina: ¿del universalismo fragmentado a la dualización?

Latina son objeto de un andlisis desarrollado en tres partes. En la primera se presentan de modo mds o menos sumario las caracteristicas centrales de los sislemas de bienestar social predominantes hasta los anos ochenta, las criticas de que han sido objeto dichos sistemas y los principios que han venido orientando su transformaci6n. En la segunda se analiza la aplica6zn de las nuevas tnientacones a partir del examen en particular de las reformas e innovaciones aplicadas en Chile y Mexico. Y en la tercera, y uiltima parte, se discuten las premisas y objetivos que sustentan dichas reformas e innovaciones. Abstract: Th7e recent social policy orientations underlying the transformation of social welfare systems in Latin America jfrm the basis of this three-part analysis. The first part summarizes the central features of the welfare systems which prevailed until the 1980s, the critiissms leveled at them and the principles guiding their transformation. The second part analyzes the implementation of the new orientations on the basis of a detailed examination of the reforms and innovations implemented in Chile and Mexico, while the third and final part discusses the premises and aims of these reforms and innovations.