Emily J. Flies

Converting Mosquito Surveillance to Arbovirus Surveillance with Honey-Baited Nucleic Acid Preservation Cards.

Spatially and temporally accurate information about infectious mosquito distribution allows for pre-emptive public health interventions that can reduce the burden of mosquito-borne infections on human populations. However, the labile nature of arboviruses, the low prevalence of infection in mosquitoes, the expensive labor costs for mosquito identification and sorting, and the specialized equipment required for arbovirus testing can obstruct arbovirus surveillance efforts. The recently developed techniques of testing mosquito expectorate using honey-baited nucleic acid preservation cards or sugar bait stations allows a sensitive method of testing for infectious, rather than infected, mosquito vectors. Here we report the results from the first large-scale incorporation of honey-baited cards into an existing mosquito surveillance program. During 4 months of the peak virus season (January-April, 2014) for a total of 577 trap nights, we set CO2-baited encephalitis vector survey (EVS) light traps at 88 locations in South Australia. The collection container for the EVS trap was modified to allow for the placement of a honey-baited nucleic acid preservation card (FTA™ card) inside. After collection, mosquitoes were maintained in a humid environment and allowed access to the cards for 1 week. Cards were then analyzed for common endemic Australian arboviruses using a nested RT-PCR. Eighteen virus detections, including 11 Ross River virus, four Barmah Forest virus, and three Stratford virus (not previously reported from South Australia) were obtained. Our findings suggest that adding FTA cards to an existing mosquito surveillance program is a rapid and efficient way of detecting infectious mosquitoes with high spatial resolution.

Socioecological predictors of immune defences in wild spotted hyenas

Social rank can profoundly affect many aspects of mammalian reproduction and stress physiology, but little is known about how immune function is affected by rank and other socio-ecological factors in free-living animals.In this study we examine the effects of sex, social rank, and reproductive status on immune function in long-lived carnivores that are routinely exposed to a plethora of pathogens, yet rarely show signs of disease.Here we show that two types of immune defenses, complement-mediated bacterial killing capacity (BKC) and total IgM, are positively correlated with social rank in wild hyenas, but that a third type, total IgG, does not vary with rank.Female spotted hyenas, which are socially dominant to males in this species, have higher BKC, and higher IgG and IgM concentrations, than do males.Immune defenses are lower in lactating than pregnant females, suggesting the immune defenses may be energetically costly.Serum cortisol and testosterone concentrations are not reliable predictors of basic immune defenses in wild female spotted hyenas.These results suggest that immune defenses are costly and multiple socioecological variables are important determinants of basic immune defenses among wild hyenas. Effects of these variables should be accounted for when attempting to understand disease ecology and immune function.

Regional Comparison of Mosquito Bloodmeals in South Australia: Implications for Ross River Virus Ecology

Abstract Ross River virus (RRV) is responsible for the most notifications of human arboviral infection in Australia. Seroprevalence and experimental infection studies have implicated macropods (e.g., kangaroos) as the major reservoir hosts. However, transmission ecology varies spatially, and infections in urban areas have prompted the question of what animals serve as reservoirs in regions where macropods are scarce. In South Australia (SA), human infection rates for RRV vary greatly by region as do vector and reservoir abundance. We hypothesized that mosquito abundance and feeding patterns would vary among ecoregions of SA and could help explain divergent human case rates. To test our hypothesis, we amplified and sequenced a 457 base pair region of the cytochrome B segment of mitochondrial DNA from blood fed mosquitoes collected in three main ecoregions of SA and identified sequences using a BLAST search in NCBI. Domestic livestock made up the vast majority of bloodmeals from the region with the highest human infection rate. Livestock are generally not considered to be important reservoir hosts for RRV, but our results suggest they may have a role in transmission ecology in some places. Surprisingly, none of the 199 bloodmeal samples were identified as macropod in origin. In the context of these findings, we consider the possible RRV vectors and reservoir hosts in these regions and propose that diverse spatial and temporal transmission ecologies occur in SA, depending on vector and reservoir availability.

Ross River virus and the necessity of multi-scale, eco-epidemiological analyses

Background Zoonotic vector-borne disease prevalence is affected by vector, human, and reservoir host factors, which are influenced by habitat and climate; these 5 components interact on microhabitat-to-landscape scales but are often analyzed at a single spatial scale. Methods We present an information theoretic, multiscale, multiple regression analysis of the ecological drivers of Ross River virus. We analyze the spatial pattern of 20 years of Ross River virus infections from South Australia (1992-2012; n = 5261), using variables across these 5 components of disease ecology at 3 spatial scales. Results We found that covariate importance depended on the spatial scale of the analysis; some biotic variables were more important at fine scales and some abiotic variables were more important at coarser spatial scales. The urban score of an area was most predictive of infections, and mosquito variables did not improve the explanatory power of these models. Conclusions Through this multiscale analysis, we identified novel drivers of the spatial distribution of disease and recommend public health interventions. Our results underline that single-scale analyses may paint an incomplete picture of disease drivers, potentially creating a major flaw in epidemiological analyses. Multiscale, ecological analyses are needed to better understand infectious disease transmission.

Another emerging mosquito-borne disease? Endemic Ross River Virus transmission in the absence of marsupial reservoirs

Ross River virus (RRV) is endemic to Australia and Papua New Guinea, with marsupials (especially macropods) as the primary reservoir hosts. Its geographic range was thought to be limited by the distribution of reservoir hosts, but recent evidence suggests that the virus can circulate endemically in the Pacific Islands, where marsupials are absent. RRV therefore has the potential for wider emergence because mammalian diversity in the Pacific Islands is limited and the possible species that have been sustaining endemic transmission are panglobal in distribution. Furthermore, RRV is a vector generalist and can be transmitted by numerous mosquito species, including Culex and the globally invasive Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus. We review the evidence for RRV expanding its host and geographic range from prehistoric times to the present and for it to potentially pose a threat as another emerging arbovirus with significant implications for human health far beyond its currently known endemic range.

Forecasting future global food demand: A systematic review and meta-analysis of model complexity

Predicting future food demand is a critical step for formulating the agricultural, economic and conservation policies required to feed over 9 billion people by 2050 while doing minimal harm to the environment. However, published future food demand estimates range substantially, making it difficult to determine optimal policies. Here we present a systematic review of the food demand literature-including a meta-analysis of papers reporting average global food demand predictions-and test the effect of model complexity on predictions. We show that while estimates of future global kilocalorie demand have a broad range, they are not consistently dependent on model complexity or form. Indeed, time-series and simple income-based models often make similar predictions to integrated assessments (e.g., with expert opinions, future prices or climate influencing forecasts), despite having different underlying assumptions and mechanisms. However, reporting of model accuracy and uncertainty was uncommon, leading to difficulties in making evidence-based decisions about which forecasts to trust. We argue for improved model reporting and transparency to reduce this problem and improve the pace of development in this field.

Astro-ecology? Shifting the interdisciplinary collaboration paradigm

We present a case study whereby ecological research on fallen trees in forest plots was advanced by a collaboration with astronomers working on the vector fields of stars and gas, and we propose a framework by which such novel collaborations can progress.