Emily L. Weiser

Simulating Retention of Rare Alleles in Small Populations to Assess Management Options for Species with Different Life Histories

Preserving allelic diversity is important because it provides the capacity for adaptation and thus enables long-term population viability. Allele retention is difficult to predict in animals with overlapping generations, so we used a new computer model to simulate retention of rare alleles in small populations of 3 species with contrasting life-history traits: North Island Brown Kiwi (Apteryx mantelli; monogamous, long-lived), North Island Robins (Petroica longipes; monogamous, short-lived), and red deer (Cervus elaphus; polygynous, moderate lifespan). We simulated closed populations under various demographic scenarios and assessed the amounts of artificial immigration needed to achieve a goal of retaining 90% of selectively neutral rare alleles (frequency in the source population = 0.05) after 10 generations. The number of immigrants per generation required to meet the genetic goal ranged from 11 to 30, and there were key similarities and differences among species. None of the species met the genetic goal without immigration, and red deer lost the most allelic diversity due to reproductive skew among polygynous males. However, red deer required only a moderate rate of immigration relative to the other species to meet the genetic goal because nonterritorial breeders had a high turnover. Conversely, North Island Brown Kiwi needed the most immigration because the long lifespan of locally produced territorial breeders prevented a large proportion of immigrants from recruiting. In all species, the amount of immigration needed generally decreased with an increase in carrying capacity, survival, or reproductive output and increased as individual variation in reproductive success increased, indicating the importance of accurately quantifying these parameters to predict the effects of management. Overall, retaining rare alleles in a small, isolated population requires substantial investment of management effort. Use of simulations to explore strategies optimized for the populations in question will help maximize the value of this effort..

AlleleRetain: a program to assess management options for conserving allelic diversity in small, isolated populations

Preserving genetic health is an important aspect of species conservation. Allelic diversity is particularly important to conserve, as it provides capacity for adaptation and thus enables long‐term population viability. Allele retention is difficult to predict beyond one generation for real populations with complex demography and life‐history traits, so we developed a computer model to simulate allele retention in small populations. AlleleRetain is an individual‐based model implemented in r and can be applied to assess management options for conserving allelic diversity in small populations of animals with overlapping generations. AlleleRetain remedies the limitations of similar existing software, and its source code is freely available for further modification. AlleleRetain and its supporting materials can be downloaded from https://sites.google.com/site/alleleretain/ or CRAN (http://cran.r-project.org).

Unexpected positive and negative effects of continuing inbreeding in one of the world's most inbred wild animals.

Inbreeding depression, the reduced fitness of offspring of related individuals, is a central theme in evolutionary biology. Inbreeding effects are influenced by the genetic makeup of a population, which is driven by any history of genetic bottlenecks and genetic drift. The Chatham Island black robin represents a case of extreme inbreeding following two severe population bottlenecks. We tested whether inbreeding measured by a 20‐year pedigree predicted variation in fitness among individuals, despite the high mean level of inbreeding and low genetic diversity in this species. We found that paternal and maternal inbreeding reduced fledgling survival and individual inbreeding reduced juvenile survival, indicating that inbreeding depression affects even this highly inbred population. Close inbreeding also reduced survival for fledglings with less‐inbred mothers, but unexpectedly improved survival for fledglings with highly inbred mothers. This counterintuitive interaction could not be explained by various potentially confounding variables. We propose a genetic mechanism, whereby a highly inbred chick with a highly inbred parent inherits a “proven” genotype and thus experiences a fitness advantage, which could explain the interaction. The positive and negative effects we found emphasize that continuing inbreeding can have important effects on individual fitness, even in populations that are already highly inbred.

Environmental and ecological conditions at Arctic breeding sites have limited effects on true survival rates of adult shorebirds

ABSTRACT Many Arctic shorebird populations are declining, and quantifying adult survival and the effects of anthropogenic factors is a crucial step toward a better understanding of population dynamics. We used a recently developed, spatially explicit Cormack–Jolly–Seber model in a Bayesian framework to obtain broad-scale estimates of true annual survival rates for 6 species of shorebirds at 9 breeding sites across the North American Arctic in 2010–2014. We tested for effects of environmental and ecological variables, study site, nest fate, and sex on annual survival rates of each species in the spatially explicit framework, which allowed us to distinguish between effects of variables on site fidelity versus true survival. Our spatially explicit analysis produced estimates of true survival rates that were substantially higher than previously published estimates of apparent survival for most species, ranging from S = 0.72 to 0.98 across 5 species. However, survival was lower for the arcticola subspecies of Dunlin (Calidris alpina arcticola; S = 0.54), our only study taxon that migrates through the East Asian–Australasian Flyway. Like other species that use that flyway, arcticola Dunlin could be experiencing unsustainably low survival rates as a result of loss of migratory stopover habitat. Survival rates of our study species were not affected by timing of snowmelt or summer temperature, and only 2 species showed minor variation among study sites. Furthermore, although previous reproductive success, predator abundance, and the availability of alternative prey each affected survival of one species, no factors broadly affected survival across species. Overall, our findings of few effects of environmental or ecological variables suggest that annual survival rates of adult shorebirds are generally robust to conditions at Arctic breeding sites. Instead, conditions at migratory stopovers or overwintering sites might be driving adult survival rates and should be the focus of future studies.

Delayed egg‐laying and shortened incubation duration of Arctic‐breeding shorebirds coincide with climate cooling

Abstract Biological impacts of climate change are exemplified by shifts in phenology. As the timing of breeding advances, the within‐season relationships between timing of breeding and reproductive traits may change and cause long‐term changes in the population mean value of reproductive traits. We investigated long‐term changes in the timing of breeding and within‐season patterns of clutch size, egg volume, incubation duration, and daily nest survival of three shorebird species between two decades. Based on previously known within‐season patterns and assuming a warming trend, we hypothesized that the timing of clutch initiation would advance between decades and would be coupled with increases in mean clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival rate. We monitored 1,378 nests of western sandpipers, semipalmated sandpipers, and red‐necked phalaropes at a subarctic site during 1993–1996 and 2010–2014. Sandpipers have biparental incubation, whereas phalaropes have uniparental incubation. We found an unexpected long‐term cooling trend during the early part of the breeding season. Three species delayed clutch initiation by 5 days in the 2010s relative to the 1990s. Clutch size and daily nest survival showed strong within‐season declines in sandpipers, but not in phalaropes. Egg volume showed strong within‐season declines in one species of sandpiper, but increased in phalaropes. Despite the within‐season patterns in traits and shifts in phenology, clutch size, egg volume, and daily nest survival were similar between decades. In contrast, incubation duration did not show within‐season variation, but decreased by 2 days in sandpipers and increased by 2 days in phalaropes. Shorebirds demonstrated variable breeding phenology and incubation duration in relation to climate cooling, but little change in nonphenological components of traits. Our results indicate that the breeding phenology of shorebirds is closely associated with the temperature conditions on breeding ground, the effects of which can vary among reproductive traits and among sympatric species.