Emmanuela Gakidou

Smoking prevalence and cigarette consumption in 187 countries, 1980-2012.

IMPORTANCE Tobacco is a leading global disease risk factor. Understanding national trends in prevalence and consumption is critical for prioritizing action and evaluating tobacco control progress. OBJECTIVE To estimate the prevalence of daily smoking by age and sex and the number of cigarettes per smoker per day for 187 countries from 1980 to 2012. DESIGN Nationally representative sources that measured tobacco use (n = 2102 country-years of data) were systematically identified. Survey data that did not report daily tobacco smoking were adjusted using the average relationship between different definitions. Age-sex-country-year observations (n = 38,315) were synthesized using spatial-temporal gaussian process regression to model prevalence estimates by age, sex, country, and year. Data on consumption of cigarettes were used to generate estimates of cigarettes per smoker per day. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Modeled age-standardized prevalence of daily tobacco smoking by age, sex, country, and year; cigarettes per smoker per day by country and year. RESULTS Global modeled age-standardized prevalence of daily tobacco smoking in the population older than 15 years decreased from 41.2% (95% uncertainty interval [UI], 40.0%-42.6%) in 1980 to 31.1% (95% UI, 30.2%-32.0%; P < .001) in 2012 for men and from 10.6% (95% UI, 10.2%-11.1%) to 6.2% (95% UI, 6.0%-6.4%; P < .001) for women. Global modeled prevalence declined at a faster rate from 1996 to 2006 (mean annualized rate of decline, 1.7%; 95% UI, 1.5%-1.9%) compared with the subsequent period (mean annualized rate of decline, 0.9%; 95% UI, 0.5%-1.3%; P = .003). Despite the decline in modeled prevalence, the number of daily smokers increased from 721 million (95% UI, 700 million-742 million) in 1980 to 967 million (95% UI, 944 million-989 million; P < .001) in 2012. Modeled prevalence rates exhibited substantial variation across age, sex, and countries, with rates below 5% for women in some African countries to more than 55% for men in Timor-Leste and Indonesia. The number of cigarettes per smoker per day also varied widely across countries and was not correlated with modeled prevalence. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE Since 1980, large reductions in the estimated prevalence of daily smoking were observed at the global level for both men and women, but because of population growth, the number of smokers increased significantly. As tobacco remains a threat to the health of the worlds population, intensified efforts to control its use are needed.

India's Janani Suraksha Yojana, a conditional cash transfer programme to increase births in health facilities: an impact evaluation

BACKGROUND In 2005, with the goal of reducing the numbers of maternal and neonatal deaths, the Government of India launched Janani Suraksha Yojana (JSY), a conditional cash transfer scheme, to incentivise women to give birth in a health facility. We independently assessed the effect of JSY on intervention coverage and health outcomes. METHODS We used data from the nationwide district-level household surveys done in 2002-04 and 2007-09 to assess receipt of financial assistance from JSY as a function of socioeconomic and demographic characteristics; and used three analytical approaches (matching, with-versus-without comparison, and differences in differences) to assess the effect of JSY on antenatal care, in-facility births, and perinatal, neonatal, and maternal deaths. FINDINGS Implementation of JSY in 2007-08 was highly variable by state-from less than 5% to 44% of women giving birth receiving cash payments from JSY. The poorest and least educated women did not always have the highest odds of receiving JSY payments. JSY had a significant effect on increasing antenatal care and in-facility births. In the matching analysis, JSY payment was associated with a reduction of 3.7 (95% CI 2.2-5.2) perinatal deaths per 1000 pregnancies and 2.3 (0.9-3.7) neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths. In the with-versus-without comparison, the reductions were 4.1 (2.5-5.7) perinatal deaths per 1000 pregnancies and 2.4 (0.7-4.1) neonatal deaths per 1000 livebirths. INTERPRETATION The findings of this assessment are encouraging, but they also emphasise the need for improved targeting of the poorest women and attention to quality of obstetric care in health facilities. Continued independent monitoring and evaluations are important to measure the effect of JSY as financial and political commitment to the programme intensifies. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Increased educational attainment and its effect on child mortality in 175 countries between 1970 and 2009: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND In addition to the inherent importance of education and its essential role in economic growth, education and health are strongly related. We updated previous systematic assessments of educational attainment, and estimated the contribution of improvements in womens education to reductions in child mortality in the past 40 years. METHODS We compiled 915 censuses and nationally representative surveys, and estimated mean number of years of education by age and sex. By use of a first-differences model, we investigated the association between child mortality and womens educational attainment, controlling for income per person and HIV seroprevalence. We then computed counterfactual estimates of child mortality for every country year between 1970 and 2009. FINDINGS The global mean number of years of education increased from 4·7 years (95% uncertainty interval 4·4-5·1) to 8·3 years (8·0-8·6) for men (aged ≥25 years) and from 3·5 years (3·2-3·9) to 7·1 years (6·7 -7·5) for women (aged ≥25 years). For women of reproductive age (15-44 years) in developing countries, the years of schooling increased from 2·2 years (2·0-2·4) to 7·2 years (6·8-7·6). By 2009, in 87 countries, women (aged 25-34 years) had higher educational attainment than had men (aged 25-34 years). Of 8·2 million fewer deaths in children younger than 5 years between 1970 and 2009, we estimated that 4·2 million (51·2%) could be attributed to increased educational attainment in women of reproductive age. INTERPRETATION The substantial increase in education, especially of women, and the reversal of the gender gap have important implications not only for health but also for the status and roles of women in society. The continued increase in educational attainment even in some of the poorest countries suggests that rapid progress in terms of Millennium Development Goal 4 might be possible. FUNDING Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Coverage of cervical cancer screening in 57 countries: low average levels and large inequalities.

Emmanuela Gakidou and colleagues find that coverage of cervical cancer screening in developing countries is on average 19% compared to 63% in developed countries.

Prevention of cardiovascular disease in high-risk individuals in low-income and middle-income countries: health effects and costs

In 2005, a global goal of reducing chronic disease death rates by an additional 2% per year was established. Scaling up coverage of evidence-based interventions to prevent cardiovascular disease in high-risk individuals in low-income and middle-income countries could play a major part in reaching this goal. We aimed to estimate the number of deaths that could be averted and the financial cost of scaling up, above current coverage levels, a multidrug regimen for prevention of cardiovascular disease (a statin, aspirin, and two blood-pressure-lowering medicines) in 23 such countries. Identification of individuals was limited to those already accessing health services, and treatment eligibility was based on the presence of existing cardiovascular disease or absolute risk of cardiovascular disease by use of easily measurable risk factors. Over a 10-year period, scaling up this multidrug regimen could avert 17.9 million deaths from cardiovascular disease (95% uncertainty interval 7.4 million-25.7 million). 56% of deaths averted would be in those younger than 70 years, with more deaths averted in women than in men owing to larger absolute numbers of women at older ages. The 10-year financial cost would be US

Population health metrics: crucial inputs to the development of evidence for health policy

47 billion (

Public Policy for the Poor? A Randomised Assessment of the Mexican Universal Health Insurance Programme

33 billion-

Assessing the effect of the 2001–06 Mexican health reform: an interim report card

61 billion) or an average yearly cost per head of

Benchmarking of performance of Mexican states with effective coverage

1.08 (

China's health system performance

0.75-1.40), ranging from