Roy Burstein

Global burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010

BACKGROUND We used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) to estimate the burden of disease attributable to mental and substance use disorders in terms of disability-adjusted life years (DALYs), years of life lost to premature mortality (YLLs), and years lived with disability (YLDs). METHODS For each of the 20 mental and substance use disorders included in GBD 2010, we systematically reviewed epidemiological data and used a Bayesian meta-regression tool, DisMod-MR, to model prevalence by age, sex, country, region, and year. We obtained disability weights from representative community surveys and an internet-based survey to calculate YLDs. We calculated premature mortality as YLLs from cause of death estimates for 1980-2010 for 20 age groups, both sexes, and 187 countries. We derived DALYs from the sum of YLDs and YLLs. We adjusted burden estimates for comorbidity and present them with 95% uncertainty intervals. FINDINGS In 2010, mental and substance use disorders accounted for 183·9 million DALYs (95% UI 153·5 million-216·7 million), or 7·4% (6·2-8·6) of all DALYs worldwide. Such disorders accounted for 8·6 million YLLs (6·5 million-12·1 million; 0·5% [0·4-0·7] of all YLLs) and 175·3 million YLDs (144·5 million-207·8 million; 22·9% [18·6-27·2] of all YLDs). Mental and substance use disorders were the leading cause of YLDs worldwide. Depressive disorders accounted for 40·5% (31·7-49·2) of DALYs caused by mental and substance use disorders, with anxiety disorders accounting for 14·6% (11·2-18·4), illicit drug use disorders for 10·9% (8·9-13·2), alcohol use disorders for 9·6% (7·7-11·8), schizophrenia for 7·4% (5·0-9·8), bipolar disorder for 7·0% (4·4-10·3), pervasive developmental disorders for 4·2% (3·2-5·3), childhood behavioural disorders for 3·4% (2·2-4·7), and eating disorders for 1·2% (0·9-1·5). DALYs varied by age and sex, with the highest proportion of total DALYs occurring in people aged 10-29 years. The burden of mental and substance use disorders increased by 37·6% between 1990 and 2010, which for most disorders was driven by population growth and ageing. INTERPRETATION Despite the apparently small contribution of YLLs--with deaths in people with mental disorders coded to the physical cause of death and suicide coded to the category of injuries under self-harm--our findings show the striking and growing challenge that these disorders pose for health systems in developed and developing regions. In view of the magnitude of their contribution, improvement in population health is only possible if countries make the prevention and treatment of mental and substance use disorders a public health priority. FUNDING Queensland Department of Health, National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia, National Drug and Alcohol Research Centre-University of New South Wales, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, University of Toronto, Technische Universität, Ontario Ministry of Health and Long Term Care, and the US National Institute of Alcohol Abuse and Alcoholism.

The global burden of low back pain: estimates from the Global Burden of Disease 2010 study

Objective To estimate the global burden of low back pain (LBP). Methods LBP was defined as pain in the area on the posterior aspect of the body from the lower margin of the twelfth ribs to the lower glutaeal folds with or without pain referred into one or both lower limbs that lasts for at least one day. Systematic reviews were performed of the prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and mortality risk of LBP. Four levels of severity were identified for LBP with and without leg pain, each with their own disability weights. The disability weights were applied to prevalence values to derive the overall disability of LBP expressed as years lived with disability (YLDs). As there is no mortality from LBP, YLDs are the same as disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). Results Out of all 291 conditions studied in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study, LBP ranked highest in terms of disability (YLDs), and sixth in terms of overall burden (DALYs). The global point prevalence of LBP was 9.4% (95% CI 9.0 to 9.8). DALYs increased from 58.2 million (M) (95% CI 39.9M to 78.1M) in 1990 to 83.0M (95% CI 56.6M to 111.9M) in 2010. Prevalence and burden increased with age. Conclusions LBP causes more global disability than any other condition. With the ageing population, there is an urgent need for further research to better understand LBP across different settings.

Global burden of disease attributable to illicit drug use and dependence: findings from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010.

BACKGROUND No systematic attempts have been made to estimate the global and regional prevalence of amphetamine, cannabis, cocaine, and opioid dependence, and quantify their burden. We aimed to assess the prevalence and burden of drug dependence, as measured in years of life lived with disability (YLDs), years of life lost (YLLs), and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). METHODS We conducted systematic reviews of the epidemiology of drug dependence, and analysed results with Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2010 (GBD 2010) Bayesian meta-regression technique (DisMod-MR) to estimate population-level prevalence of dependence and use. GBD 2010 calculated new disability weights by use of representative community surveys and an internet-based survey. We combined estimates of dependence with disability weights to calculate prevalent YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs, and estimated YLDs, YLLs, and DALYs attributable to drug use as a risk factor for other health outcomes. FINDINGS Illicit drug dependence directly accounted for 20·0 million DALYs (95% UI 15·3-25·4 million) in 2010, accounting for 0·8% (0·6-1·0) of global all-cause DALYs. Worldwide, more people were dependent on opioids and amphetamines than other drugs. Opioid dependence was the largest contributor to the direct burden of DALYs (9·2 million, 95% UI 7·1-11·4). The proportion of all-cause DALYs attributed to drug dependence was 20 times higher in some regions than others, with an increased proportion of burden in countries with the highest incomes. Injecting drug use as a risk factor for HIV accounted for 2·1 million DALYs (95% UI 1·1-3·6 million) and as a risk factor for hepatitis C accounted for 502,000 DALYs (286,000-891,000). Suicide as a risk of amphetamine dependence accounted for 854,000 DALYs (291,000-1,791,000), as a risk of opioid dependence for 671,000 DALYs (329,000-1,730,000), and as a risk of cocaine dependence for 324,000 DALYs (109,000-682,000). Countries with the highest rate of burden (>650 DALYs per 100,000 population) included the USA, UK, Russia, and Australia. INTERPRETATION Illicit drug use is an important contributor to the global burden of disease. Efficient strategies to reduce disease burden of opioid dependence and injecting drug use, such as delivery of opioid substitution treatment and needle and syringe programmes, are needed to reduce this burden at a population scale. FUNDING Australian National Health and Medical Research Council, Australian Government Department of Health and Ageing, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

The global burden of neck pain

Objective To estimate the global burden of neck pain. Methods Neck pain was defined as pain in the neck with or without pain referred into one or both upper limbs that lasts for at least 1 day. Systematic reviews were performed of the prevalence, incidence, remission, duration and mortality risk of neck pain. Four levels of severity were identified for neck pain with and without arm pain, each with their own disability weights. A Bayesian meta-regression method was used to pool prevalence and derive missing age/sex/region/year values. The disability weights were applied to prevalence values to derive the overall disability of neck pain expressed as years lived with disability (YLDs). YLDs have the same value as disability-adjusted life years as there is no evidence of mortality associated with neck pain. Results The global point prevalence of neck pain was 4.9% (95% CI 4.6 to 5.3). Disability-adjusted life years increased from 23.9 million (95% CI 16.5 to 33.1) in 1990 to 33.6 million (95% CI 23.5 to 46.5) in 2010. Out of all 291 conditions studied in the Global Burden of Disease 2010 Study, neck pain ranked 4th highest in terms of disability as measured by YLDs, and 21st in terms of overall burden. Conclusions Neck pain is a common condition that causes substantial disability. With aging global populations, further research is urgently needed to better understand the predictors and clinical course of neck pain, as well as the ways in which neck pain can be prevented and better managed.

Development assistance for health: trends and prospects

The global economic crisis that began to unfold in 2008 has raised serious concerns about the ability of developing countries to meet targets for improvements in population health outcomes, and about the ability of developed countries to meet their commitments to fund health programmes in developing countries. This uncertainty underscores the importance of tracking spending on global health, to ensure resources are directed effi ciently to the world’s most pressing health issues. In 2009, Nirmala Ravishankar and colleagues from the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, reported on the massive expansion of development assistance for health between 1990 and 2007. This study introduced standardised defi nitions for tracking such assistance, and integrated fi nancial statements, tax returns, and other data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development’s Creditor Reporting System, UN health agencies, the World Bank, the Global Fund to Fight AIDS, Tuberculosis and Malaria, the GAVI Alliance, foundations, and non-governmental organisations. The fi ndings gave quantitative detail about the expansion of global health, and the increase in the number of institutions and actors channelling these resources. New bodies, such as the Global Fund, GAVI Alliance, and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, along with the UK’s Department for International Development and US development agencies, were responsible for a rising share of development assistance for health, whereas some organisations (such as WHO) accounted for a steadily decreasing fraction of resources. We have now updated that information, publishing new data, analysis, and preliminary estimates associated with development assistance for health. As part of this new study, we incorporated several key methodological improvements in response to reactions to our 2009 work. First, in addition to providing comparable fi gures for 2008, we generated preliminary estimates for 2009 and 2010. To do this, we examined the relation between past budgets and subsequent disbursements for bilateral development agencies, the European Commission, UN agencies, and the multilateral banks. These relations were used to project likely disbursements in 2009 and 2010, on the basis of annual budget data. For foundations and non-governmental organisations, we forecasted disbursements in 2010 on the basis of information from fi nancial data between 1990 and 2009, and key covariates, including gross domestic product per head and asset-value indices. Second, we used in-kind income as reported by US non-governmental organisations on their tax returns. Many non-governmental organisations use US wholesale prices for donated drugs and equipment. We studied the relation between US wholesale prices, international prices, and federal upper-limit prices for 386 unique products. We used Figure: Development assistance for health by channel of assistance, 1990–2010 IBRD=International Bank for Reconstruction and Development. IDA=International Development Association. *2009 and 2010 are preliminary estimates based on information from the channels, including budgets, appropriations, and correspondence. 28

Nets, spray or both? The effectiveness of insecticide-treated nets and indoor residual spraying in reducing malaria morbidity and child mortality in sub-Saharan Africa

BackgroundMalaria control programmes currently face the challenge of maintaining, as well as accelerating, the progress made against malaria with fewer resources and uncertain funding. There is a critical need to determine what combination of malaria interventions confers the greatest protection against malaria morbidity and child mortality under routine conditions.MethodsThis study assesses intervention effectiveness experienced by children under the age of five exposed to both insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) and indoor residual spraying (IRS), as compared to each intervention alone, based on nationally representative survey data collected from 17 countries in sub-Saharan Africa.ResultsLiving in households with both ITNs and IRS was associated with a significant risk reduction against parasitaemia in medium and high transmission areas, 53% (95% CI 37% to 67%) and 31% (95% CI 11% to 47%) respectively. For medium transmission areas, an additional 36% (95% CI 7% to 53%) protection was garnered by having both interventions compared with exposure to only ITNs or only IRS. Having both ITNs and IRS was not significantly more protective against parasitaemia than either intervention alone in low and high malaria transmission areas. In rural and urban areas, exposure to both interventions provided significant protection against parasitaemia, 57% (95% CI 48% to 65%) and 39% (95% CI 10% to 61%) respectively; however, this effect was not significantly greater than having a singular intervention. Statistically, risk for all-cause child mortality was not significantly reduced by having both ITNs and IRS, and no additional protectiveness was detected for having dual intervention coverage over a singular intervention.ConclusionsThese findings suggest that greater reductions in malaria morbidity and health gains for children may be achieved with ITNs and IRS combined beyond the protection offered by IRS or ITNs alone.

Travel time to maternity care and its effect on utilization in rural Ghana: A multilevel analysis

Rates of neonatal and maternal mortality are high in Ghana. In-facility delivery and other maternal services could reduce this burden, yet utilization rates of key maternal services are relatively low, especially in rural areas. We tested a theoretical implication that travel time negatively affects the use of in-facility delivery and other maternal services. Empirically, we used geospatial techniques to estimate travel times between populations and health facilities. To account for uncertainty in Ghana Demographic and Health Survey cluster locations, we adopted a novel approach of treating the location selection as an imputation problem. We estimated a multilevel random-intercept logistic regression model. For rural households, we found that travel time had a significant effect on the likelihood of in-facility delivery and antenatal care visits, holding constant education, wealth, maternal age, facility capacity, female autonomy, and the season of birth. In contrast, a facilitys capacity to provide sophisticated maternity care had no detectable effect on utilization. As the Ghanaian health network expands, our results suggest that increasing the availability of basic obstetric services and improving transport infrastructure may be important interventions.

Mapping under-5 and neonatal mortality in Africa, 2000–15: a baseline analysis for the Sustainable Development Goals

Summary Background During the Millennium Development Goal (MDG) era, many countries in Africa achieved marked reductions in under-5 and neonatal mortality. Yet the pace of progress toward these goals substantially varied at the national level, demonstrating an essential need for tracking even more local trends in child mortality. With the adoption of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in 2015, which established ambitious targets for improving child survival by 2030, optimal intervention planning and targeting will require understanding of trends and rates of progress at a higher spatial resolution. In this study, we aimed to generate high-resolution estimates of under-5 and neonatal all-cause mortality across 46 countries in Africa. Methods We assembled 235 geographically resolved household survey and census data sources on child deaths to produce estimates of under-5 and neonatal mortality at a resolution of 5 × 5 km grid cells across 46 African countries for 2000, 2005, 2010, and 2015. We used a Bayesian geostatistical analytical framework to generate these estimates, and implemented predictive validity tests. In addition to reporting 5 × 5 km estimates, we also aggregated results obtained from these estimates into three different levels—national, and subnational administrative levels 1 and 2—to provide the full range of geospatial resolution that local, national, and global decision makers might require. Findings Amid improving child survival in Africa, there was substantial heterogeneity in absolute levels of under-5 and neonatal mortality in 2015, as well as the annualised rates of decline achieved from 2000 to 2015. Subnational areas in countries such as Botswana, Rwanda, and Ethiopia recorded some of the largest decreases in child mortality rates since 2000, positioning them well to achieve SDG targets by 2030 or earlier. Yet these places were the exception for Africa, since many areas, particularly in central and western Africa, must reduce under-5 mortality rates by at least 8·8% per year, between 2015 and 2030, to achieve the SDG 3.2 target for under-5 mortality by 2030. Interpretation In the absence of unprecedented political commitment, financial support, and medical advances, the viability of SDG 3.2 achievement in Africa is precarious at best. By producing under-5 and neonatal mortality rates at multiple levels of geospatial resolution over time, this study provides key information for decision makers to target interventions at populations in the greatest need. In an era when precision public health increasingly has the potential to transform the design, implementation, and impact of health programmes, our 5 × 5 km estimates of child mortality in Africa provide a baseline against which local, national, and global stakeholders can map the pathways for ending preventable child deaths by 2030. Funding Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Benchmarking health system performance across states in Nigeria: a systematic analysis of levels and trends in key maternal and child health interventions and outcomes, 2000-2013

BackgroundNigeria has made notable gains in improving childhood survival but the country still accounts for a large portion of the world’s overall disease burden, particularly among women and children. To date, no systematic analyses have comprehensively assessed trends for health outcomes and interventions across states in Nigeria.MethodsWe extracted data from 19 surveys to generate estimates for 20 key maternal and child health (MCH) interventions and outcomes for 36 states and the Federal Capital Territory from 2000 to 2013. Source-specific estimates were generated for each indicator, after which a two-step statistical model was applied using a mixed-effects model followed by Gaussian process regression to produce state-level trends. National estimates were calculated by population-weighting state values.ResultsUnder-5 mortality decreased in all states from 2000 to 2013, but a large gap remained across them. Malaria intervention coverage stayed low despite increases between 2009 and 2013, largely driven by rising rates of insecticide-treated net ownership. Overall, vaccination coverage improved, with notable increases in the coverage of three-dose oral polio vaccine. Nevertheless, immunization coverage remained low for most vaccines, including measles. Coverage of other MCH interventions, such as antenatal care and skilled birth attendance, generally stagnated and even declined in many states, and the range between the lowest- and highest-performing states remained wide in 2013. Countrywide, a measure of overall intervention coverage increased from 33% in 2000 to 47% in 2013 with considerable variation across states, ranging from 21% in Sokoto to 66% in Ekiti.ConclusionsWe found that Nigeria made notable gains for a subset of MCH indicators between 2000 and 2013, but also experienced stalled progress and even declines for others. Despite progress for a subset of indicators, Nigeria’s absolute levels of intervention coverage remained quite low. As Nigeria rolls out its National Health Bill and seeks to strengthen its delivery of health services, continued monitoring of local health trends will help policymakers track successes and promptly address challenges as they arise. Subnational benchmarking ought to occur regularly in Nigeria and throughout sub-Saharan Africa to inform local decision-making and bolster health system performance.

Patient satisfaction and perceived quality of care: evidence from a cross-sectional national exit survey of HIV and non-HIV service users in Zambia

Objective To examine the associations between perceived quality of care and patient satisfaction among HIV and non-HIV patients in Zambia. Setting Patient exit survey conducted at 104 primary, secondary and tertiary health clinics across 16 Zambian districts. Participants 2789 exiting patients. Primary independent variables Five dimensions of perceived quality of care (health personnel practice and conduct, adequacy of resources and services, healthcare delivery, accessibility of care, and cost of care). Secondary independent variables Respondent, visit-related, and facility characteristics. Primary outcome measure Patient satisfaction measured on a 1–10 scale. Methods Indices of perceived quality of care were modelled using principal component analysis. Statistical associations between perceived quality of care and patient satisfaction were examined using random-effect ordered logistic regression models, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, visit and facility characteristics. Results Average satisfaction was 6.9 on a 10-point scale for non-HIV services and 7.3 for HIV services. Favourable perceptions of health personnel conduct were associated with higher odds of overall satisfaction for non-HIV (OR=3.53, 95% CI 2.34 to 5.33) and HIV (OR=11.00, 95% CI 3.97 to 30.51) visits. Better perceptions of resources and services were also associated with higher odds of satisfaction for both non-HIV (OR=1.66, 95% CI 1.08 to 2.55) and HIV (OR=4.68, 95% CI 1.81 to 12.10) visits. Two additional dimensions of perceived quality of care—healthcare delivery and accessibility of care—were positively associated with higher satisfaction for non-HIV patients. The odds of overall satisfaction were lower in rural facilities for non-HIV patients (OR 0.69; 95% CI 0.48 to 0.99) and HIV patients (OR=0.26, 95% CI 0.16 to 0.41). For non-HIV patients, the odds of satisfaction were greater in hospitals compared with health centres/posts (OR 1.78; 95% CI 1.27 to 2.48) and lower at publicly-managed facilities (OR=0.41, 95% CI=0.27 to 0.64). Conclusions Perceived quality of care is an important driver of patient satisfaction with health service delivery in Zambia.