Emmi Nieminen

Optimal Bioeconomic Multispecies Fisheries Management: A Baltic Sea Case Study

Abstract We assess cod, herring, and sprat fisheries in the Baltic Sea under different environmental conditions using a bioeconomic model with simple predation functions. We compare the status quo fishing policy to an optimal policy under two different salinity conditions, which have a link to climate change. The fishery of these species is not at the most profitable level. If the fishing mortalities are lower, economic return will be greater in the long run. A lower fishing mortality for cod, which allows time for individuals to grow and achieve a higher economic value and reproduction potential, would result in the recovery of the cod stock. Under a high salinity level, which leads to better conditions for cod recruitment, the cod stock has a better chance to recover even without a decrease in fishing mortality. Therefore, fishery management is even more important under conditions of low salinity, which are likely to prevail in the future due to changing climate. JEL Classification Codes: Q22, Q54, Q57

Trends in marine climate change research in the Nordic region since the first IPCC report

Oceans are exposed to anthropogenic climate change shifting marine systems toward potential instabilities. The physical, biological and social implications of such shifts can be assessed within individual scientific disciplines, but can only be fully understood by combining knowledge and expertise across disciplines. For climate change related problems these research directions have been well-established since the publication of the first IPCC report in 1990, however it is not well-documented to what extent these directions are reflected in published research. Focusing on the Nordic region, we evaluated the development of climate change related marine science by quantifying trends in number of publications, disciplinarity, and scientific focus of 1362 research articles published between 1990 and 2011. Our analysis showed a faster increase in publications within climate change related marine science than in general marine science indicating a growing prioritisation of research with a climate change focus. The composition of scientific disciplines producing climate change related publications, which initially was dominated by physical sciences, shifted toward a distribution with almost even representation of physical and biological sciences with social sciences constituting a minor constant proportion. These trends suggest that the predominantly model-based directions of the IPCC have favoured the more quantitatively oriented natural sciences rather than the qualitative traditions of social sciences. In addition, despite being an often declared prerequisite to successful climate science, we found surprisingly limited progress in implementing interdisciplinary research indicating that further initiatives nurturing scientific interactions are required.

International Fisheries Agreements with a Shifting Stock

When a fish stock shifts from one nation to another nation, e.g., due to climate change, the nation that loses the resource has incentives to deplete it, while the other nation, receiving the resource, has incentives to conserve it. We propose an analytical model to study under which circumstances self-enforcing agreements can align incentives. Our setup allows to distinguish between a fast and a slow shift and between a smooth or a sudden shift in ownership. We show that the shorter the expected duration of the transition, the higher the total equilibrium exploitation rate. Similarly, a sudden shift implies—by and large—more aggressive non-cooperative exploitation than a gradual shift. However, a self-enforcing agreement without side-payments is more likely for a sudden than for a smooth shift. Further, the scope for cooperation increases with the expected duration of the transition, and it decreases with the renewability of the resource and the discount rate. Most importantly, we show that concentrating on in-kind transfers can be very detrimental for shifting renewable resources: In some cases, there is no efficient bargaining solution without side-payments, even when there are only two players.

International fisheries management and recreational benefits: The case of Baltic salmon

ABSTRACT This article studies how accounting for the benefits of recreational fisheries affects the formation and stability of an international fisheries agreement (IFA) on the management of Baltic salmon stocks. The interaction between four countries is modelled through a partition function game, under two scenarios. In the first scenario, countries take their participation decision for the IFA based only on the net present value of profits from commercial fisheries. In the second scenario, the net present value of the recreational benefits from angling is also considered. The results show that accounting for recreational benefits leads to the formation of the grand coalition, whereas only partial cooperation occurs when payoffs are confined to profits from commercial fisheries. JEL Codes: C70, F53, Q22.