Eric A. Hendricks

The role of vortical hot towers in the formation of tropical cyclone Diana (1984)

Abstract A high-resolution (3-km horizontal grid spacing) near-cloud-resolving numerical simulation of the formation of Hurricane Diana (1984) is used to examine the contribution of deep convective processes to tropical cyclone formation. This study is focused on the 3-km horizontal grid spacing simulation because this simulation was previously found to furnish an accurate forecast of the later stages of the observed storm life cycle. The numerical simulation reveals the presence of vortical hot towers, or cores of deep cumulonimbus convection possessing strong vertical vorticity, that arise from buoyancy-induced stretching of local absolute vertical vorticity in a vorticity-rich prehurricane environment. At near-cloud-resolving scales, these vortical hot towers are the preferred mode of convection. They are demonstrated to be the most important influence to the formation of the tropical storm via a two-stage evolutionary process: (i) preconditioning of the local environment via diabatic production of mul...

Quantifying Environmental Control on Tropical Cyclone Intensity Change

Abstract Composite analysis is used to examine environmental and climatology and persistence characteristics of tropical cyclones (TCs) undergoing different intensity changes in the western North Pacific (WPAC) and North Atlantic (ATL) ocean basins. Using the cumulative distribution functions of 24-h intensity changes from the 2003–08 best-track data, four intensity change bins are defined: rapidly intensifying (RI), intensifying, neutral, and weakening. The Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System daily 0000 and 1200 UTC global analysis and Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Microwave Imager data are then used as proxies for the real atmosphere, and composites of various environmental fields believed relevant to TC intensity change are made in the vicinity of the TCs. These composites give the average characteristics near the TC, prior to undergoing a given intensity change episode. For the environmental variables, statistically significant differences are examined between RI storms and the...

What Is the Source of the Stratospheric Gravity Wave Belt in Austral Winter

AbstractDuring austral winter, and away from orographic maxima or “hot spots,” stratospheric gravity waves in both satellite observations and Interim European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim) data reveal enhanced amplitudes in a broad midlatitude belt extending across the Southern Ocean from east of the Andes to south of New Zealand. The peak latitude of this feature slowly migrates poleward from 50° to 60°S. Wave amplitudes are much weaker across the midlatitude Pacific Ocean. These features of the wave field are in striking agreement with diagnostics of baroclinic growth rates in the troposphere associated with midlatitude winter storm tracks and the climatology of the midlatitude jet. This correlation suggests that these features of the stratospheric gravity wave field are controlled by geographical variations of tropospheric nonorographic gravity wave sources in winter storm tracks: spontaneous adjustment emission from the midlatitude winter jet, frontogenesi...

Life Cycles of Hurricane-Like Vorticity Rings

Abstract The asymmetric dynamics of potential vorticity mixing in the hurricane inner core are further advanced by examining the end states that result from the unforced evolution of hurricane-like vorticity rings in a nondivergent barotropic model. The results from a sequence of 170 numerical simulations are summarized. The sequence covers a two-dimensional parameter space, with the first parameter defining the hollowness of the vortex (i.e., the ratio of eye to inner-core relative vorticity) and the second parameter defining the thickness of the ring (i.e., the ratio of the inner and outer radii of the ring). In approximately one-half of the cases, the ring becomes barotropically unstable, and there ensues a vigorous vorticity mixing episode between the eye and eyewall. The output of the barotropic model is used to (i) verify that the nonlinear model approximately replicates the linear theory of the fastest-growing azimuthal mode in the early phase of the evolution, and (ii) characterize the end states ...

Observed Inner-Core Structural Variability in Hurricane Dolly (2008)*

AbstractHurricane Dolly (2008) exhibited dramatic inner-core structural variability during a 6-h rapid intensification and deepening event just prior to making landfall in southern Texas at 1800 UTC 23 July. In particular, the eyewall was highly asymmetric from 0634–1243 UTC, with azimuthal wavenumber m = 4–7 patterns in the eyewall radar reflectivity and prominent mesovortex and polygonal eyewall signatures. Evidence is presented that the most likely cause of the high-wavenumber asymmetries is a convectively modified form of barotropic instability of the thin eyewall potential vorticity ring. The rapid intensification and deepening event occurred while Dolly was in a favorable environment with weak deep-layer vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures; however, the environmental conditions were becoming less favorable during the period of rapid intensification. Therefore, it is plausible that the internal vortex dynamics were dominant contributors to the rapid intensification and deepening.

Structural and Intensity Changes of Concentric Eyewall Typhoons in the Western North Pacific Basin

AbstractAn objective method is developed to identify concentric eyewalls (CEs) for typhoons using passive microwave satellite imagery from 1997 to 2011 in the western North Pacific basin. Three CE types are identified: a CE with an eyewall replacement cycle (ERC; 37 cases), a CE with no replacement cycle (NRC; 17 cases), and a CE that is maintained for an extended period (CEM; 16 cases). The inner eyewall (outer eyewall) of the ERC (NRC) type dissipates within 20 h after CE formation. The CEM type has its CE structure maintained for more than 20 h (mean duration time is 31 h). Structural and intensity changes of CE typhoons are demonstrated using a T–Vmax diagram (where T is the brightness temperature and Vmax is the best-track estimated intensity) for a time sequence of the intensity and convective activity (CA) relationship. While the intensity of typhoons in the ERC and CEM cases weakens after CE formation, the CA is maintained or increases. In contrast, the CA weakens in the NRC cases. The NRC (CEM) c...

Hurricane Eyewall Evolution in a Forced Shallow-Water Model

A forced shallow-water model is used to understand the role of diabatic and frictional effects in the generation, maintenance, and breakdown of the hurricane eyewall potential vorticity (PV) ring. Diabatic heating is parameterized as an annular mass sink of variable width and magnitude, and the nonlinear evolution of tropical storm‐like vortices is examined under this forcing. Diabatic heating produces a strengthening and thinning PV ring in time due to the combined effects of the mass sink and radial PV advection by the induced divergent circulation. If the forcing makes the ring thin enough, then it can become dynamically unstable and break down into polygonal asymmetries or mesovortices. The onset of barotropic instability is marked by simultaneous drops in both the maximum instantaneous velocity and minimum pressure, consistent with unforced studies. However, in a sensitivity test where the heating is proportional to the relative vorticity, universal intensification occurs during barotropic instability, consistent with a recent observational study. Friction is shown to help stabilize the PV ring by reducing the eyewall PV and the unstable-mode barotropic growth rate. The radial location and structure of the heating is shown to be of critical importance for intensity variability. While it is well known that it is critical to heat in the inertially stable region inside the radius of maximum winds to spin up the hurricane vortex, these results demonstrate the additional importance of havingthenetheatingascloseaspossibletothecenterofthestorm,partiallyexplainingwhytropicalcyclones with very small eyes can rapidly intensify to high peak intensities.

Performance of a Dynamic Initialization Scheme in the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System for Tropical Cyclones (COAMPS-TC)

AbstractA dynamic initialization scheme for tropical cyclone structure and intensity in numerical prediction systems is described and tested. The procedure involves the removal of the analyzed vortex and, then, insertion of a new vortex that is dynamically initialized to the observed surface pressure into the numerical model initial conditions. This new vortex has the potential to be more balanced, and to have a more realistic boundary layer structure than by adding synthetic data in the data assimilation procedure to initialize the tropical cyclone in a model. The dynamic initialization scheme was tested on multiple tropical cyclones during 2008 and 2009 in the North Atlantic and western North Pacific Ocean basins using the Naval Research Laboratory’s tropical cyclone version of the Coupled Ocean–Atmosphere Mesoscale Prediction System (COAMPS-TC). The use of this initialization procedure yielded significant improvements in intensity forecasts, with no degradation in track performance. Mean absolute error...

Evaluation of a Fast-Running Urban Dispersion Modeling System Using Joint Urban 2003 Field Data

Abstract An urban dispersion modeling system was evaluated using the Joint Urban 2003 field data. The system consists of a fast-running urban airflow model (RUSTIC, for Realistic Urban Spread and Transport of Intrusive Contaminants) that is coupled with a Lagrangian particle transport and diffusion model (MESO) that uses random-walk tracer diffusion techniques. Surface measurements from fast-response and integrated bag samplers were used to evaluate model performance in predicting near-field (less than 1 km from the source) dispersion in the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, central business district. Comparisons were made for six different intense operating periods (IOPs) composed of three different release locations and stable nighttime and unstable daytime meteorological conditions. Overall, the models were shown to have an underprediction bias of 47%. A possible influence to this underprediction is that the higher density of sulfur hexafluoride in comparison with air was not taken into account in the simulatio...

Modeling Turbulent Flow in an Urban Central Business District

Abstract The Realistic Urban Spread and Transport of Intrusive Contaminants (RUSTIC) model has been developed as a simplified computational fluid dynamics model with a k–ω turbulence model to be used to provide moderately fast simulations of turbulent airflow in an urban environment. RUSTIC simulations were compared with wind tunnel measurements to refine and “calibrate” the parameters for the k–ω model. RUSTIC simulations were then run and compared with data from five different periods during the Joint Urban 2003 experiment. Predictions from RUSTIC were compared with data from 33 near-surface sonic anemometers as well as 8 sonic anemometers on a 90-m tower and a sodar wind profiler located in the Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, central business district. The data were subdivided into daytime and nighttime datasets and then the daytime data were further subdivided into exposed and sheltered sonic anemometers. While there was little difference between day and night for wind speed and direction comparisons, there ...