Eric Bair

Semi-Supervised Methods to Predict Patient Survival from Gene Expression Data

An important goal of DNA microarray research is to develop tools to diagnose cancer more accurately based on the genetic profile of a tumor. There are several existing techniques in the literature for performing this type of diagnosis. Unfortunately, most of these techniques assume that different subtypes of cancer are already known to exist. Their utility is limited when such subtypes have not been previously identified. Although methods for identifying such subtypes exist, these methods do not work well for all datasets. It would be desirable to develop a procedure to find such subtypes that is applicable in a wide variety of circumstances. Even if no information is known about possible subtypes of a certain form of cancer, clinical information about the patients, such as their survival time, is often available. In this study, we develop some procedures that utilize both the gene expression data and the clinical data to identify subtypes of cancer and use this knowledge to diagnose future patients. These procedures were successfully applied to several publicly available datasets. We present diagnostic procedures that accurately predict the survival of future patients based on the gene expression profile and survival times of previous patients. This has the potential to be a powerful tool for diagnosing and treating cancer.

Prediction by Supervised Principal Components

In regression problems where the number of predictors greatly exceeds the number of observations, conventional regression techniques may produce unsatisfactory results. We describe a technique called supervised principal components that can be applied to this type of problem. Supervised principal components is similar to conventional principal components analysis except that it uses a subset of the predictors selected based on their association with the outcome. Supervised principal components can be applied to regression and generalized regression problems, such as survival analysis. It compares favorably to other techniques for this type of problem, and can also account for the effects of other covariates and help identify which predictor variables are most important. We also provide asymptotic consistency results to help support our empirical findings. These methods could become important tools for DNA microarray data, where they may be used to more accurately diagnose and treat cancer.

Characterization of variant patterns of nodular lymphocyte predominant Hodgkin lymphoma with immunohistologic and clinical correlation

Nodular lymphocyte predominant Hodgkin lymphoma (NLPHL) has traditionally been recognized as having two morphologic patterns, nodular and diffuse, and the current WHO definition of NLPHL requires at least a partial nodular pattern. Variant patterns have not been well documented. We analyzed retrospectively the morphologic and immunophenotypic patterns of NLPHL from 118 patients (total of 137 biopsy samples). Histology plus antibodies directed against CD20, CD3, and CD21 were used to evaluate the immunoarchitecture. We identified six distinct immunoarchitectural patterns in our cases of NLPHL: “classic” (B-cell-rich) nodular, serpiginous/interconnected nodular, nodular with prominent extranodular L&H cells, T-cell-rich nodular, diffuse with a T-cell-rich background (T-cell-rich B-cell lymphoma [TCRBCL]-like), and a (diffuse) B-cell-rich pattern. Small germinal centers within neoplastic nodules were found in approximately 15% of cases, a finding not previously emphasized in NLPHL. Prominent sclerosis was identified in approximately 20% of cases and was frequently seen in recurrent disease. Clinical follow-up was obtained on 56 patients, including 26 patients who had not had recurrence of disease and 30 patients who had recurrence. The follow-up period was 5 months to 16 years (median 2.5 years). The presence of a diffuse (TCRBCL-like) pattern was significantly more common in patients with recurrent disease than those without recurrence. Furthermore, the presence of a diffuse pattern (TCRBCL-like) was shown to be an independent predictor of recurrent disease (P = 0.00324). In addition, there is a tendency for progression to an increasingly more diffuse pattern over time. Analysis of sequential biopsies from patients with recurrent disease suggests that the presence of prominent extranodular L&H cells might represent early evolution to a diffuse (TCRBCL-like) pattern. We also report three patients who presented initially with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma and later developed NLPHL.

A Gene Expression Signature of Genetic Instability in Colon Cancer

Genetic instability plays a central role in the development and progression of human cancer. Two major classes of genetic instability, microsatellite instability (MSI) and chromosome instability (microsatellite stable; MSS), are best understood in the context of colon cancer, where MSI tumors represent approximately 15% of cases, and compared with MSS tumors, more often arise in the proximal colon and display favorable clinical outcome. To further explore molecular differences, we profiled gene expression in a set of 18 colon cancer cell lines using cDNA microarrays representing approximately 21,000 different genes. Supervised analysis identified a robust expression signature distinguishing MSI and MSS samples. As few as eight genes predicted with high accuracy the underlying genetic instability in the original and in three independent sample sets, comprising 13 colon cancer cell lines, 61 colorectal tumors, and 87 gastric tumors. Notably, the MSI signature was retained despite genetically correcting the underlying instability, suggesting the signature reflects a legacy of the tumor having arisen from MSI, rather than sensing the ongoing state of MSI. Our findings support a model in which MSI and MSS preferentially target different genes and pathways in cancer. Further, among the MSI signature genes, our findings implicate a role of elevated metallothionein expression in the clinical behavior of MSI cancers.

hCAP-D3 expression marks a prostate cancer subtype with favorable clinical behavior and androgen signaling signature.

Growing evidence suggests that only a fraction of prostate cancers detected clinically are potentially lethal. An important clinical issue is identifying men with indolent cancer who might be spared aggressive therapies with associated morbidities. Previously, using microarray analysis we defined 3 molecular subtypes of prostate cancer with different gene-expression patterns. One, subtype-1, displayed features consistent with more indolent behavior, where an immunohistochemical marker (AZGP1) for subtype-1 predicted favorable outcome after radical prostatectomy. Here we characterize a second candidate tissue biomarker, hCAP-D3, expressed in subtype-1 prostate tumors. hCAP-D3 expression, assayed by RNA in situ hybridization on a tissue microarray comprising 225 cases, was associated with decreased tumor recurrence after radical prostatectomy (P=0.004), independent of pathologic tumor stage, Gleason grade, and preoperative prostate-specific antigen levels. Simultaneous assessment of hCAP-D3 and AZGP1 expression in this tumor set improved outcome prediction. We have previously demonstrated that hCAP-D3 is induced by androgen in prostate cells. Extending this finding, Gene Set Enrichment Analysis revealed enrichment of androgen-responsive genes in subtype-1 tumors (P=0.019). Our findings identify hCAP-D3 as a new biomarker for subtype-1 tumors that improves prognostication, and reveal androgen signaling as an important biologic feature of this potentially clinically favorable molecular subtype.