Eric D. Gould

Crime Rates and Local Labor Market Opportunities in the United States: 1979-1997

The labor market prospects of young, unskilled men fell dramatically in the 1980s and improved in the 1990s. Crime rates show a reverse pattern: increasing during the 1980s and falling in the 1990s. Because young, unskilled men commit most crime, this paper seeks to establish a causal relationship between the two trends. Previous work on the relationship between labor markets and crime focused mainly on the relationship between the unemployment rate and crime, and found inconclusive results. In contrast, this paper examines the impact of both wages and unemployment on crime, and uses instrumental variables to establish causality. We conclude that both wages and unemployment are significantly related to crime, but that wages played a larger role in the crime trends over the last few decades. These results are robust to the inclusion of deterrence variables, controls for simultaneity, and controlling for individual and family characteristics.

Internalizing Externalities: The Pricing of Space in Shopping Malls

Consumers are attracted to malls because of the presence of well‐known anchors—department stores with recognized names. Anchors generate mall traffic that indirectly increases the sales of lesser‐known mall stores. Lesser‐known stores can free ride off of the reputations of better‐known stores. Mall developers internalize these externalities by offering rent subsidies to anchors and by charging rent premiums to other mall tenants. We estimate that anchors receive a per foot rent subsidy of no less than 72 percent that which nonanchor stores pay. Anchors pay a lower rent per square foot in larger malls (with several department stores) than in smaller malls (with fewer department stores), even though sales per square foot of anchors are the same in the two types of malls. In contrast, the sales and rent per square foot of other mall stores are higher in superregional malls than in regional malls.

Precautionary Demand for Education, Inequality, and Technological Progress

This paper offers an explanation for the evolution of wage inequality within and between industries and education groups over the past several decades. The model is based on the disproportionate depreciation of technology-specific skills versus general skills due to technological progress, which occurs randomly across sectors. Consistent with empirical evidence, the model predicts that increasing randomness is the primary source of inequality growth within uneducated workers, whereas inequality growth within educated workers is determined more by changes in the composition and return to ability. Increasing randomness generates a “precautionary” demand for education, which we show empirically to be significant.

Immigrating to Opportunity: Estimating the Effect of School Quality Using a Natural Experiment on Ethiopians in Israel

In May 1991, 15,000 Ethiopian Jews were brought to Israel in an overnight airlift and sorted in a haphazard and essentially random fashion to absorption centres across the country. This quasi-random assignment produced a natural experiment whereby the initial schooling environment of Ethiopian children can be considered exogenous to their family background and parental decisions. We examine the extent to which the initial elementary school environment affected the high school outcomes of Ethiopian children, using administrative panel data on the educational career of each child in Israel through much of the 1990s. The results show that the early school environment has an important effect on high school dropout and repetition rates and on end-of-high-school matriculation exams. The results are robust to controlling for observable characteristics of the community, suggesting that characteristics of the elementary school itself, such as the quality of instruction and peer effects, are important for high school success.

Interactions between Workers and the Technology of Production: Evidence from Professional Baseball

This paper shows that workers can affect the productivity of their coworkers based on income maximization considerations, rather than relying on behavioral considerations such as peer pressure, social norms, and shame. We show that a workers effort has a positive effect on the effort of coworkers if they are complements in production, and a negative effect if they are substitutes. The theory is tested using a panel data set of baseball players from 1970 to 2003. The results are consistent with the idea that the effort choices of workers interact in ways that are dependent on the technology of production.

Fashion, Styling, and the Within-Season Decline in Automobile Prices

Between 1954 and 1989 the seasonal variation in retail new car prices declined, while the annual percentage decline in used car prices lessened. To explain these long-term changes, this article suggests that a rise in the cost of a major model change has reduced the frequency of major model changes, changed the characteristics of new models, and resulted in smaller within-season price declines. New cars of adjacent model years have become closer substitutes as the importance of the annual model change has lessened. The American automobile has slowly become less of a fashion product because it has become increasingly costly to supply frequent styling changes. In contrast, the within-season price decline in womens apparel has increased over time as fashion has become more important. Reasons for the different price patterns are investigated.

The Long-Run Effect of 9/11: Terrorism, Backlash, and the Assimilation of Muslim Immigrants in the West

This paper investigates whether the 9/11 attacks will have a long-term impact by altering the fertility and assimilation rate of immigrants from Muslim countries in the United States. Terror attacks by Islamic groups are likely to induce a backlash against the Muslim community, and therefore, tend to raise the costs of assimilation for Muslims in the West. We test this hypothesis by exploiting variation across states in the number of hate crimes against Muslims in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. Our results show that Muslim immigrants living in states which experienced the sharpest increase in hate crimes also exhibit: (i) greater chances of marrying within their own ethnic group; (ii) higher fertility; (iii) lower female labor force participation; and (iv) lower English proficiency. Importantly, the state-level increase in hate crimes against Muslims after the 9/11 attacks was not correlated with the pre-existing state-level trend in any of these assimilation outcomes. Moreover, we do not find similar effects for any other immigrant group after the 9/11 attacks. Overall, our results show that the backlash induced by the 9/11 attacks increased the ethnic identity and demographic strength of the Muslim immigrant community in the U.S. These findings shed light on the increasing use of terror attacks on Western countries, with the concurrent rise in social and political tensions surrounding the assimilation of Muslim immigrants in several European countries.

Does High Inequality Attract High Skilled Immigrants

This study examines how the sources and levels of income inequality affect how a country attracts and retains high skilled workers. With parameter values that yield realistic levels of emigration, our model shows that emigration rates increase with education when the returns to education are higher abroad. However, the relationship between unobservable skills (‘residual wages’) and emigration can display an inverse U-shaped pattern, if unobservable skills are composed of both ‘general’ and ‘country-specific’ skills. Using data on Israeli emigrants before they decide to emigrate, we find strong empirical evidence in support of the models predictions.

Skill obsolescence and wage inequality within education groups

Technological progress renders various skills obsolete, however, the rate of skill obsolescence will vary according to the workers human capital investments. Workers heavily invested in general skills, such as education, will not suffer high rates of obsolescence, while less-educated workers who invest more in “technology-specific” skills will suffer more when the technology is changed. Consistent with this framework, this chapter demonstrates that increasing randomness is the primary source of inequality growth within uneducated workers, whereas inequality growth within educated workers is determined more by predictable factors. Furthermore, this chapter shows that increasing randomness generates a “precautionary” demand for education.

Growing Apart, Losing Trust? The Impact of Inequality on Social Capital

There is a widespread perception that trust and social capital have declined in United States as well as other advanced economies, while income inequality has tended to increase. While previous research has noted that measured trust declines as individuals become less similar to one another, this paper examines whether the downward trend in social capital is responding to the increasing gaps in income. The analysis uses data from the American National Election Survey (ANES) for the United States, and the European Social Survey (ESS) for Europe. Our analysis for the United States exploits variation across states and over time (1980-2010), while our analysis of the ESS utilizes variation across European countries and over time (2002-2012). The results provide robust evidence that overall inequality lowers an individual’s sense of trust in others in the United States as well as in other advanced economies. These effects mainly stem from residual inequality, which may be more closely associated with the notion of fairness, as well as inequality in the bottom of the distribution. Since trust has been linked to economic growth and development in the existing literature, these findings suggest an important, indirect way through which inequality affects macro-economic performance.