Eric J. Nilles

Rapid spread of emerging Zika virus in the Pacific area

Zika virus (ZIKV) is an emerging arthropod-borne virus (arbovirus) belonging to the family Flaviviridae and genus Flavivirus. ZIKV was first isolated from a monkey in the Zika forest of Uganda in 1947 [1]. Subsequently, sporadic human infections were reported in Africa and Asia. In 2007, the first large documented ZIKV outbreak was reported from Yap State, Federated States of Micronesia [2]. No further transmission was identified in the Pacific until October 2013, when French Polynesia (FP) reported the first cases; a subsequent explosive outbreak resulted in an estimated 28 000 cases seeking medical care (approximately 11% of the population) [3,4]. Phylogenetic analyses demonstrated that the FP strain was closely related to Cambodia 2010 and Yap State 2007 strains, corroborating previous findings of the expansion of the ZIKV Asian lineage [3]. During the FP outbreak, most clinical cases presented with mild disease characterized by low-grade fever, maculopapular rash, arthralgia, and conjunctivitis. In November, a patient presented with Guillain–Barre syndrome (GBS), an autoimmune disease causing acute or subacute flaccid paralysis, 1 week after a confirmed acute ZIKV infection [5]. Subsequent GBS cases were identified, correlating temporally with the ZIKV outbreak. The incidence rate of GBS cases during the ZIKV outbreak was approximately 20-fold higher than expected given the size of the FP population and the established incidence rates of GBS (1–2/ 100 000 population per year) [6]. No severe disease resulting from ZIKV infection had been reported prior to the FP outbreak, but previous clinical characterization was based on a limited number of confirmed cases. The recent temporal and spatial association between the FP ZIKV outbreak and the highly unusual GBS cluster is very

Phylogeographical analysis of the dominant multidrug-resistant H58 clade of Salmonella Typhi identifies inter- and intracontinental transmission events

The emergence of multidrug-resistant (MDR) typhoid is a major global health threat affecting many countries where the disease is endemic. Here whole-genome sequence analysis of 1,832 Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi) identifies a single dominant MDR lineage, H58, that has emerged and spread throughout Asia and Africa over the last 30 years. Our analysis identifies numerous transmissions of H58, including multiple transfers from Asia to Africa and an ongoing, unrecognized MDR epidemic within Africa itself. Notably, our analysis indicates that H58 lineages are displacing antibiotic-sensitive isolates, transforming the global population structure of this pathogen. H58 isolates can harbor a complex MDR element residing either on transmissible IncHI1 plasmids or within multiple chromosomal integration sites. We also identify new mutations that define the H58 lineage. This phylogeographical analysis provides a framework to facilitate global management of MDR typhoid and is applicable to similar MDR lineages emerging in other bacterial species.

Transmission Dynamics of Zika Virus in Island Populations: A Modelling Analysis of the 2013–14 French Polynesia Outbreak

Between October 2013 and April 2014, more than 30,000 cases of Zika virus (ZIKV) disease were estimated to have attended healthcare facilities in French Polynesia. ZIKV has also been reported in Africa and Asia, and in 2015 the virus spread to South America and the Caribbean. Infection with ZIKV has been associated with neurological complications including Guillain-Barré Syndrome (GBS) and microcephaly, which led the World Health Organization to declare a Public Health Emergency of International Concern in February 2015. To better understand the transmission dynamics of ZIKV, we used a mathematical model to examine the 2013–14 outbreak on the six major archipelagos of French Polynesia. Our median estimates for the basic reproduction number ranged from 2.6–4.8, with an estimated 11.5% (95% CI: 7.32–17.9%) of total infections reported. As a result, we estimated that 94% (95% CI: 91–97%) of the total population of the six archipelagos were infected during the outbreak. Based on the demography of French Polynesia, our results imply that if ZIKV infection provides complete protection against future infection, it would take 12–20 years before there are a sufficient number of susceptible individuals for ZIKV to re-emerge, which is on the same timescale as the circulation of dengue virus serotypes in the region. Our analysis suggests that ZIKV may exhibit similar dynamics to dengue virus in island populations, with transmission characterized by large, sporadic outbreaks with a high proportion of asymptomatic or unreported cases.

Human Leptospirosis Infection in Fiji: An Eco-epidemiological Approach to Identifying Risk Factors and Environmental Drivers for Transmission

Leptospirosis is an important zoonotic disease in the Pacific Islands. In Fiji, two successive cyclones and severe flooding in 2012 resulted in outbreaks with 576 reported cases and 7% case-fatality. We conducted a cross-sectional seroprevalence study and used an eco-epidemiological approach to characterize risk factors and drivers for human leptospirosis infection in Fiji, and aimed to provide an evidence base for improving the effectiveness of public health mitigation and intervention strategies. Antibodies indicative of previous or recent infection were found in 19.4% of 2152 participants (81 communities on the 3 main islands). Questionnaires and geographic information systems data were used to assess variables related to demographics, individual behaviour, contact with animals, socioeconomics, living conditions, land use, and the natural environment. On multivariable logistic regression analysis, variables associated with the presence of Leptospira antibodies included male gender (OR 1.55), iTaukei ethnicity (OR 3.51), living in villages (OR 1.64), lack of treated water at home (OR 1.52), working outdoors (1.64), living in rural areas (OR 1.43), high poverty rate (OR 1.74), living <100m from a major river (OR 1.41), pigs in the community (OR 1.54), high cattle density in the district (OR 1.04 per head/sqkm), and high maximum rainfall in the wettest month (OR 1.003 per mm). Risk factors and drivers for human leptospirosis infection in Fiji are complex and multifactorial, with environmental factors playing crucial roles. With global climate change, severe weather events and flooding are expected to intensify in the South Pacific. Population growth could also lead to more intensive livestock farming; and urbanization in developing countries is often associated with urban and peri-urban slums where diseases of poverty proliferate. Climate change, flooding, population growth, urbanization, poverty and agricultural intensification are important drivers of zoonotic disease transmission; these factors may independently, or potentially synergistically, lead to enhanced leptospirosis transmission in Fiji and other similar settings.

Dengue Virus Type 3, South Pacific Islands, 2013

After an 18-year absence, dengue virus serotype 3 reemerged in the South Pacific Islands in 2013. Outbreaks in western (Solomon Islands) and eastern (French Polynesia) regions were caused by different genotypes. This finding suggested that immunity against dengue virus serotype, rather than virus genotype, was the principal determinant of reemergence.

An extended genotyping framework for Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi, the cause of human typhoid

The population of Salmonella enterica serovar Typhi (S. Typhi), the causative agent of typhoid fever, exhibits limited DNA sequence variation, which complicates efforts to rationally discriminate individual isolates. Here we utilize data from whole-genome sequences (WGS) of nearly 2,000 isolates sourced from over 60 countries to generate a robust genotyping scheme that is phylogenetically informative and compatible with a range of assays. These data show that, with the exception of the rapidly disseminating H58 subclade (now designated genotype 4.3.1), the global S. Typhi population is highly structured and includes dozens of subclades that display geographical restriction. The genotyping approach presented here can be used to interrogate local S. Typhi populations and help identify recent introductions of S. Typhi into new or previously endemic locations, providing information on their likely geographical source. This approach can be used to classify clinical isolates and provides a universal framework for further experimental investigations.

Typhoid fever in Fiji: a reversible plague?

The country of Fiji, with a population of approximately 870 000 people, faces a growing burden of several communicable diseases including the bacterial infection typhoid fever. Surveillance data suggest that typhoid has become increasingly common in rural areas of Fiji and is more frequent amongst young adults. Transmission of the organisms that cause typhoid is facilitated by faecal contamination of food or water and may be influenced by local behavioural practices in Fiji. The Fijian Ministry of Health, with support from Australian Aid, hosted a meeting in August 2012 to develop comprehensive control and prevention strategies for typhoid fever in Fiji. International and local specialists were invited to share relevant data and discuss typhoid control options. The resultant recommendations focused on generating a clearer sense of the epidemiology of typhoid in Fiji and exploring the contribution of potential transmission pathways. Additionally, the panel suggested steps such as ensuring that recommended ciprofloxacin doses are appropriate to reduce the potential for relapse and reinfection in clinical cases, encouraging proper hand hygiene of food and drink handlers, working with water and sanitation agencies to review current sanitation practices and considering a vaccination policy targeting epidemiologically relevant populations.

Impact of a Targeted Typhoid Vaccination Campaign Following Cyclone Tomas, Republic of Fiji, 2010

After a category 4 cyclone that caused extensive population displacement and damage to water and sanitation infrastructure in Fiji in March 2010, a typhoid vaccination campaign was conducted as part of the post-disaster response. During June-December 2010, 64,015 doses of typhoid Vi polysaccharide vaccine were administered to persons ≥ 2 years of age, primarily in cyclone-affected areas that were typhoid endemic. Annual typhoid fever incidence decreased during the post-campaign year (2011) relative to preceding years (2008-2009) in three subdivisions where a large proportion of the population was vaccinated (incidence rate ratios and 95% confidence intervals: 0.23, 0.13-0.41; 0.24, 0.14-0.41; 0.58, 0.40-0.86), and increased or remained unchanged in 12 subdivisions where little to no vaccination occurred. Vaccination played a role in reducing typhoid fever incidence in high-incidence areas after a disaster and should be considered in endemic settings, along with comprehensive control measures, as recommended by the World Health Organization.

Management of High Altitude Pulmonary Edema in the Himalaya: A Review of 56 Cases Presenting at Pheriche Medical Aid Post (4240 m)

OBJECTIVE The purpose of this study was to review the patient characteristics and management of 56 cases of high altitude pulmonary edema at the Pheriche Himalayan Rescue Association Medical Aid Post, and to measure the use of medications in addition to descent and oxygen. METHODS In a retrospective case series, we reviewed all patients diagnosed clinically with high altitude pulmonary edema during the 2010 Spring and Fall seasons. Nationality, altitude at onset of symptoms, physical examination findings, therapies administered, and evacuation methods were evaluated. RESULTS Of all patients, 23% were Nepalese, with no difference in clinical features compared with non-Nepalese patients; 28% of all patients were also suspected of having high altitude cerebral edema. Symptoms developed in 91% of all patients at an altitude higher than the aid post (median altitude of onset of 4834 m); 83% received oxygen therapy, and 87% received nifedipine, 44% sildenafil, 32% dexamethasone, and 39% acetazolamide. Patients who were administered sildenafil, dexamethasone, or acetazolamide had presented with significantly lower initial oxygen saturations (P ≤ .05). After treatment, 93% of all patients descended; 38% descended on foot without a supply of oxygen. CONCLUSIONS A significant number of patients presenting to the Pheriche medical aid post with high altitude pulmonary edema were given dexamethasone, sildenafil, or acetazolamide in addition to oxygen, nifedipine, and descent. This finding may be related to perceived severity of illness and evacuation limitations. Although no adverse effects were observed, the use of multiple medications is not supported by current evidence and should not be widely adopted without further study.

Ongoing outbreak of dengue serotype-3 in Solomon Islands, January to May 2013

INTRODUCTION In January 2013, clinicians in Honiara, Solomon Islands noted several patients presenting with dengue-like illness. Serum from three cases tested positive for dengue by rapid diagnostic test. Subsequent increases in cases were reported, and the outbreak was confirmed as being dengue serotype-3 by further laboratory tests. This report describes the ongoing outbreak investigation, findings and response. METHODS Enhanced dengue surveillance was implemented in the capital, Honiara, and in the provinces. This included training health staff on dengue case definitions, data collection and reporting. Vector surveillance was also conducted. RESULTS From 3 January to 15 May 2013, 5254 cases of suspected dengue were reported (101.8 per 10 000 population), including 401 hospitalizations and six deaths. The median age of cases was 20 years (range zero to 90), and 86% were reported from Honiara. Both Aedes aegyti and Aedes albopictus were identified in Honiara. Outbreak response measures included clinical training seminars, vector control activities, implementation of diagnostic and case management protocols and a public communication campaign. DISCUSSION This was the first large dengue outbreak documented in Solomon Islands. Factors that may have contributed to this outbreak include a largely susceptible population, the presence of a highly efficient dengue vector in Honiara, a high-density human population with numerous breeding sites and favourable weather conditions for mosquito proliferation. Although the number of cases has plateaued since 1 April, continued enhanced nationwide surveillance and response activities are necessary.