Eric J. Pitcher

The Response of a Spectral General Circulation Model to Refinements in Radiative Processes

Abstract We present here results and analyses of a series of numerical experiments performed with a spectral general circulation model (GCM). The purpose of the GCM experiments is to examine the role of radiation/cloud processes in the general circulation of the troposphere and stratosphere. The experiments were primarily motivated by the significant improvements in the GCM zonal mean simulation as refinements were made in the model treatment of clear-sky radiation and cloud-radiative interactions. The GCM with the improved cloud/radiation model is able to reproduce many observed features, such as: a clear separation between the wintertime tropospheric jet and the polar night jet; winter polar stratospheric temperatures of about 200 K; interhemispheric and seasonal asymmetries in the zonal winds. In a set of sensitivity experiments, we have stripped the cloud/radiation model of its improvements, the result being a significant degradation of the zonal mean simulations by the GCM. Through these experiments ...

A General Circulation Model Study of January Climate Anomaly Patterns Associated with Interannual Variation of Equatorial Pacific Sea Surface Temperatures

Abstract A general circulation model has been run in the perpetual January mode to produce several long-term simulations, each distinguished by a different imposed equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature. From each of them simulations we have extracted an eight-member ensemble of 90-day averaged fields. Ensemble-mean difference maps are presented in this paper, together with an estimate of the statistical significance of features which appear in thee maps. These results are compared with observational studies in the literature that present difference maps of Northern Hemisphere winter fields composited according to some index related to the two extremes of equatorial Pacific sea-surface temperature variation. The results show many anomaly patterns of high statistical significance that are also in good agreement with those observed. In the tropics, them include 990 mb wind, sea level pressure and rainfall anomalies constituting the Southern Oscillation, as well as a 200 mb height anomaly at all longitud...

January and July Simulations with a Spectral General Circulation Model

Abstract We describe the results of January and July simulations carded out with a nine-level spectral model, employing a rhomboidal truncation at wavenumber 15. Sea-surface temperature, sea-ice distribution and solar zenith angle are held constant in each simulation. The model includes interactive clouds and radiative processes after Ramanathan et al. (1983). Selected fields are shown which highlight the models strengths and weaknesses. The latitude-height distribution of the zonal wind is successfully simulated. The model captures the separation between the wintertime westerly jets in the troposphere and stratosphere and thus simulates the sign reversal in the vertical wind shear across the jet axis in the upper troposphere. In addition to the zonal wind, we show also the zonally averaged temperature, meridional wind and vertical velocity. Regional distributions of sea-level pressure, surface air temperature, precipitation and a number of other fields defined at various pressure levels are compared in ...

The Effect of North Pacific Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies on the January Climate of a General Circulation Model

Abstract Four perpetual January integrations of an atmospheric general circulation model have been performed, in each of which a different sea surface temperature (SST) anomaly was specified in the North Pacific. The observed SST anomaly for the 1976/77 winter was chosen as the basic anomaly, and 1200-day runs were carded out in which this anomaly was multiplied by ±1 and ±2. A fifth run was performed which combined the basic midlatitude SST anomaly from 1976/77 with a tropical Pacific SST anomaly representative of the mature phase of a warm El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episode. An ensemble of eight, independent 90-day averaged realizations was extracted from each simulation. Maps of ensemble-mean differences from the model climatology are presented in this paper, together with estimates of the statistical significance of some of the features which appear on these maps. The model response to the basic SST anomaly and to twice the basic SST anomaly is a midiatitude teleconnection pattern, the Pacifi...

Application of Stochastic Dynamic Prediction to Real Data

Abstract The technique of stochastic dynamic prediction proposed by Epstein is applied to atmospheric data. The motivation for the approach is discussed and a review is given of the development of the stochastic dynamic equations which, subject to the third-moment discard approximation, describe the evolution of the first two moments of a probability density characterizing an ensemble of possible true states. The method of “least squares” is used to extract the moments directly from radiosonde observations of the 500 mb geopotential height field. Approaching the analysis problem from a Bayesian standpoint leads to a weighted average of the new observations and the forecast, the appropriate weighting for the latter being supplied by the stochastic forecast itself. The basic physical model employed is a spectral form of the equivalent barotropic. The effects of the simplicity of the dynamical model on the growth of error (external error growth) must be considered explicitly when making stochastic forecasts,...

The Significance of Thermodynamic Forcing by Cumulus Convection in a General Circulation Model

Abstract To assess the effects of cumulus convection on the general circulation of the atmosphere, a medium-resolution, spectral general circulation model was integrated twice for 40 simulated days from identical initial conditions, with and without a version of a cumulus parameterization scheme developed by Kuo. The cumulus parameterization scheme allows cumuli to interact with the large-scale flow by condensation and cumulus flux convergences of entropy and moisture; cumulus friction is not included. Cumulus convection warms the upper troposphere and slightly cools the lower tropical troposphere; additional cooling occurs in the lower troposphere of the winter-hemisphere baroclinic zone. Cumulus convection also dries the lower troposphere, especially in the tropics and summer hemisphere, and weakens the Hadley cells. The zonal wind field responds geostrophically to cumulus-induced temperature changes. Condensation and cumulus vertical-flux convergence are both important in determining the interaction be...

The Simulation of Stationary and Transient Geopotential-Height Eddies in January and July with a Spectral General Circulation Model

Abstract We examine the characteristics of stationary and transient eddies in the geopotential-height field as simulated by a spectral general circulation model. The model possesses a realistic distribution of continents and oceans and realistic, but smoothed, topography. Two simulations with perpetual January and July forcing by climatological sea surface temperatures, sea ice, and insulation were extended to 1200 days, of which the final 600 days were used for the results in this study. We find that the stationary waves are well simulated in both seasons in the Northern Hemisphere, where strong forcing by orography and land-sea thermal contrasts exists. However, in the Southern Hemisphere, where no continents are present in midlatitudes, the stationary waves have smaller amplitude than that observed in both seasons. In both hemispheres, the transient eddies are well simulated in the winter season but are too weak in the summer season. The model fails to generate a sufficiently intense summertime midlati...