Eric Jessup

The relative impact of macroeconomic and yearling-specific variables in determining thoroughbred yearling price

The Present study is the first to examine the relative importance of macroeconomic and yearling-specific variables on the price of thoroughbred yearlings. Regression results indicated that it is the yearling-specific variables that are more influential in explaining yearling price, yet both types of variables are important. The main explanatory variables are the stud fee of the yearlingans sire, and the annual gross total dollar purchases of thoroughbred yearlings by foreign investors.

Demand Forecasting for Rural Transit: Models Applied to Washington State

Rural transit demand forecasting is a tool that aids planners and analysts in the allocation of scarce resources for typically underserved populations. As the number of privately owned automobiles has increased over the past several decades, the provision of public transportation has decreased and lessened the ability of nondrivers to participate in the workforce, take advantage of social service programs, and receive adequate medical care. With Washington State as the case study, three models were developed on the basis of usage characteristics for several existing transportation systems in four Washington counties. Peer analysis was used to create three models with varying levels of complexity and data requirements to predict ridership on countywide public transportation systems. Results indicate that the disaggregated transit demand (DTD) model estimation techniques are the most refined and flexible. The DTD model provides a significant starting point for developing accurate equations for predicting transit need and demand for underserved areas in Washington State.

Estimating Truck Trips with Product Specific Data: a Disruption Case Study in Washington Potatoes

Abstract Currently, knowledge of actual freight flows in the US is insufficient at a level of geographic resolution that permits corridor-level freight transportation analysis and planning. Commodity specific origins, destinations, and routes are typically estimated from four-step models or commodity flow models. At a sub-regional level, both of these families of models are built on important assumptions driven by the limited availability of data. This study was motivated by a desire to determine whether efforts to gather corridor-level freight movement data will bring significant new insights over current approaches to freight transportation modeling. Through a case study of Washington States potato and value added potato products industry, we show that significant insight can be gained by collecting commodity-specific truck trip generation and destination data: the approach allows product specific truck trips to be estimated for each roadway link. When considering a network change, the number of affected trips can be identified, and their re-route distance quantified.

Understanding Grain Movements for Demand Estimation: The Columbia-Snake River System in Washington State

Grain producers and handlers in Washington State have benefited from a multimodal transportation network of roads, railroads, and the Columbia-Snake River barge system to move large amounts of grain effectively in a timely and economic manner. The competitive environment of the grain industry brings many changes, including the number of firms and houses, mergers, and modal competitiveness. Additionally, marketing strategies are affected because choices of available transportation modes reflect the decision processes of warehouses or firm managers. This aggregate study of grain marketing and transportation in the Pacific Northwest helps lay the groundwork for subsequent estimates of empirical demand. Such subsequent modeling attempts may include revealed and stated preference analysis in discrete choice demand models. A thorough understanding of the industry and market characteristics should improve empirical estimation efforts and produce more defensible policy analysis. Based on a 90% shipment volume response rate, results show that in the Columbia-Snake River grain situation, one destination absorbs more than 90% of shipments. Modal competition is active; barge has a market share of more than 50%, down 12-16% from 10 years ago. Multiple-car shipments have increased, but not drastically. Rates are consistently competitive over the period. Finally, grain demand is seasonal but generally has been stable over time. The revealed preferences from this aggregate analysis suggest that price elasticity may vary across shippers, times of movement, and modal availability.

Estimating the Impact of Seasonal Truck Shortages on the Movement of Time-Sensitive, Perishable Products: Transportation Cost Minimization Approach

This research focuses on the frequent and persistent problem of truck shortages for time-sensitive, perishable produce shipment out of the Pacific Northwest. Washington State is the number one apple-producing state in the United States, accounting for more than 2.7 million tons of apples per year valued in excess of

Spatial Investigation of Mineral Transportation Characteristics in the State of Washington

1 billion. However, without timely and accessible transportation to move the product from production to the consumers table, the value to apple producers and the states economy diminishes rapidly. This research aims to identify and quantify the change in total transportation cost that occurs as a result of seasonal truck shortages and associated rate increases and to provide an avenue for evaluating changes in specific destination markets, modal changes, and market competitiveness. A cost-minimizing optimization model is used to represent apple shipments from 29 producing supply points to 16 domestic markets and three international export markets over four seasons for two modes (truck and r...

Study of Rural Transportation Issues

This study investigates the spatial relationships between construction aggregate shipments and the per axle payload weights of trucks as they pertain to highway deterioration in the state of Washington. A previous study investigated the transportation characteristics of mined aggregates using a spatial autoregressive model, where a significant positive relationship between payload weights and shipment distances was established. This paper expands the previous study by assessing the contribution of aggregate hauling trucks to pavement deterioration using per-axle loads by truck configuration. Results showed a positive relationship between weights per axle load and several shipment distance categories. According to the well-established per axle weight and pavement damage relationship, incremental changes in per axle payload weights resulting from longer shipment distances clearly suggest that longer haulage increases the magnitude of pavement deterioration. This direct relationship between road impact and the distance hauled emphasizes the importance of the proximity of mine sites to different end users.