Ken Casavant

Using Contingent Valuation to Measure User and Nonuser Benefits: An Application to Public Transit

The contingent valuation method (CVM) was used to measure the value of a community service, rural transit, that has both user and nonuser values. Traditional focus groups and a CVM questionnaire provide estimates of willingness to pay and willingness to accept. Tobit analysis was used to test relationships among the variables. Income was not related to the amount of perceived benefit, but the alternative desire to provide transit for others was statistically significant. Ranges for possible total benefits, user and nonuser, are provided for the test transit systems. Proper aggregation of benefits to the population was found to be critical.

Estimation of Demand for Transportation of Agricultural Commodities

A logit model is used to estimate the elasticities and cross elasticities for freight transport services. The model is applied to a sample of cherry and apple shipments. The performance of the model in explaining choice of transportation method is highly satisfactory. Estimated coefficients, with one exception, have expected signs and are statistically significant.

A spatial equilibrium port cargo projection model

A mathematical spatial programming model developed to analyse changes in international and hinterland commodity flows through a regional port system is applied to wheat shipments through the U.S. Pacific Northwest port system. Two scenarios, one focusing on a Chinese quarantine on wheat shipments from the Pacific Northwest and the other on possible closure of barge transportation on the Columbia-Snake River, illustrate the capacity of the model to evaluate the impacts of international and hinterland shocks on the regional port system.

Demand Forecasting for Rural Transit: Models Applied to Washington State

Rural transit demand forecasting is a tool that aids planners and analysts in the allocation of scarce resources for typically underserved populations. As the number of privately owned automobiles has increased over the past several decades, the provision of public transportation has decreased and lessened the ability of nondrivers to participate in the workforce, take advantage of social service programs, and receive adequate medical care. With Washington State as the case study, three models were developed on the basis of usage characteristics for several existing transportation systems in four Washington counties. Peer analysis was used to create three models with varying levels of complexity and data requirements to predict ridership on countywide public transportation systems. Results indicate that the disaggregated transit demand (DTD) model estimation techniques are the most refined and flexible. The DTD model provides a significant starting point for developing accurate equations for predicting transit need and demand for underserved areas in Washington State.

Perishables—The New Intermodal Battleground

years, with rail share increasing to 12% in 1983 (USDA). In this paper we discuss the reasons for possible continuance of this trend and then identify implications of this turnaround to the agricultural community. It is specifically argued that shipper/receiver (S/R) sensitivity to transportation service factors is the paramount consideration in selecting modes for FFV transportation. The extent to which railroads can continue to recapture perishable traffic will depend primarily upon their ability to capitalize on the service characteristics of intermodal transportation.

Understanding Grain Movements for Demand Estimation: The Columbia-Snake River System in Washington State

Grain producers and handlers in Washington State have benefited from a multimodal transportation network of roads, railroads, and the Columbia-Snake River barge system to move large amounts of grain effectively in a timely and economic manner. The competitive environment of the grain industry brings many changes, including the number of firms and houses, mergers, and modal competitiveness. Additionally, marketing strategies are affected because choices of available transportation modes reflect the decision processes of warehouses or firm managers. This aggregate study of grain marketing and transportation in the Pacific Northwest helps lay the groundwork for subsequent estimates of empirical demand. Such subsequent modeling attempts may include revealed and stated preference analysis in discrete choice demand models. A thorough understanding of the industry and market characteristics should improve empirical estimation efforts and produce more defensible policy analysis. Based on a 90% shipment volume response rate, results show that in the Columbia-Snake River grain situation, one destination absorbs more than 90% of shipments. Modal competition is active; barge has a market share of more than 50%, down 12-16% from 10 years ago. Multiple-car shipments have increased, but not drastically. Rates are consistently competitive over the period. Finally, grain demand is seasonal but generally has been stable over time. The revealed preferences from this aggregate analysis suggest that price elasticity may vary across shippers, times of movement, and modal availability.

Washington State Short-Line Railroads: Case Study in Meeting 21st-Century Demands with 19th-Century Infrastructure

Following the Staggers Act of 1980, the Class I railroads in Washington State abandoned nearly 2,000 mi of rail line, as similar events occurred throughout the country. This abandonment generated the opportunity for the creation of many short-line railroads on branch and light-density lines. Recognition of the degree of deferred maintenance throughout the country has become increasingly prevalent in recent years. Many short lines have not been upgraded to meet the standards and conditions required for modern freight rail load limits (286,000 lb per car) and frequently rely on century-old rail lines. Through in-depth interviews of short-line operators and owners, this paper finds that more than 55% (740 mi) of all current short-line miles within Washington State are unable to handle 286,000-lb railcars efficiently, putting those operators and owners at an increasing economic disadvantage. Overcoming this deficiency and bringing the state’s short-line system to Class II operating status will require infrastructure investments in excess of

Real-Time Assessment of the Columbia-Snake River Extended Lock Outage: Process and Impacts

600 million. The annual need throughout the state exceeds the current funding capabilities of most lines through their own revenue streams and public support, even if considered over a 20-year planning horizon. To put the effects of deferred maintenance in perspective, three short-line case studies illustrate the private and public benefits of investment in the short-line railroad system to ensure that short lines remain viable operations.

The impact of Alaskan oil development on the Washington-Alaska trade

Waterborne movements, one of the more economical methods of all modes of transportation, are a key component of the multimodal transportation system in the Pacific Northwest of the United States. The Columbia–Snake River system in the Pacific Northwest underwent a sustained lock outage from December 2010 to March 2011. This outage eliminated barge transportation on much of the upper Columbia River and all of the Snake River. Shippers, carriers, and ports on the river projected the impact of the loss of a major mode of transportation to be substantial and the impact on demands of other modes of transportation to be dramatic. A study done in real time took advantage of the disruption of the Columbia–Snake system to determine the dynamics of the overall process and the impacts of such a change induced by an outage. The study reported specifically on the Pacific Northwest wheat industry, 75% of downriver commodity movement. A transportation disruption like that of the extended lock outage on the Columbia–Snake River system had never occurred in the United States. The study authors were able to evaluate the logistic, economic, and environmental impacts of a sustained halt in barge transportation. Overall, Columbia–Snake River stakeholders were well prepared and managed to navigate the disruption in transportation without incurring inordinate costs at a net cost per bushel of 6 cents.

In The West

Washington State serves as a marketing and transportation center for Alaska trade. This study estimates, via a Location Quotient Input-Output model for Alaska, the impact Alaskan oil development will have on various economic sectors in both states. A “From-To” table and the existing Washington Input-Output table quantified the impacts on Washington.The Alaska oil development impact will result in a tripling of the Alaskan economys output from 1972 to 1980. The largest impact in Alaska will be on the Service, Finance, Agriculture, Trade, and State and Local Government sectors. The impact on Washington will be felt in sectors of Transportation, Finance, Trade, and Agriculture resulting in an aggregate increase in the Washington economy of 10.6 percent if 50 percent of Alaskas import requirements are provided by Washington, and 5.3 percent if the import movement is 25 percent.