Eric L. Piza

Saturation Foot-Patrol in a High-Violence Area: A Quasi-Experimental Evaluation

This study incorporates a quasi-experimental design to evaluate a saturation foot-patrol initiative in Newark, NJ. Violent crime was measured for one year prior and during the initiative within the target area, a surrounding catchment area, and two separate control areas. The overall findings provide further support for foot-patrol as a crime prevention tactic. Total street violence as well as the disaggregate categories of murder, shootings, and nondomestic aggravated assault decreased within the target area absent of any displacement effects. However, robbery suffered from substantial levels of both temporal and spatial displacement, showing saturation foot-patrol to have varying impact on different types of street violence. This finding suggests that police should design large-scale foot-patrol initiatives in a manner that does not allow offenders, particularly robbers, to easily gauge the scope of the intervention and identify alternate crime opportunities.

“A Plague on both Your Houses?”: Risks, Repeats and Reconsiderations of Urban Residential Burglary

Research has shown that mapping techniques are useful in forecasting future crime events. However, the majority of prospective mapping techniques has focused on the event-dependent influence of instigator incidents on subsequent incidents and does not explicitly incorporate the risk heterogeneity of the setting. The study here discussed is a modest attempt to address this issue by using a two-step process: first, using risk terrain modeling, we operationalized the “environmental backcloth,” (the risk heterogeneity of an area) to forecast locations of residential burglaries in the urban city of Newark, New Jersey. Second, using the near repeat calculator, we assessed the variability of underlying risk between different types of residential burglaries. A discussion of the findings and the joint utility of these approaches is provided.

THE COMPANY YOU KEEP? THE SPILLOVER EFFECTS OF GANG MEMBERSHIP ON INDIVIDUAL GUNSHOT VICTIMIZATION IN A CO‐OFFENDING NETWORK

The effects of gang membership on individual social, behavior, cognitive, and health outcomes are well documented. Yet, research consistently has shown that gang membership and the boundaries of gangs are often fluid and amorphous. The current study examines how social proximity to a gang member in ones co-offending network influences the probability of being a gunshot victim. We re-create and analyze the social network of all individuals who were arrested, summonsed for a quality-of-life violation, and subjected to noncustodial police contacts in Newark, New Jersey, during a 1-year time period (N = 10,531). A descriptive network analysis finds an extreme concentration of fatal and nonfatal gunshot injuries within a small social network: Nearly one third of all shootings in Newark occur in a network that contains less than 4 percent of the citys total population. Furthermore, a series of logistic regression models finds that being directly or indirectly linked to a gang member in ones co-offending network has a significant effect on ones probability of being a gunshot victim. Implications of these findings for the study of gangs, gun violence, and a public health approach to violence are discussed.

Is the Punishment More Certain? An Analysis of CCTV Detections and Enforcement

The primary preventive mechanism of CCTV is considered to be deterrence. However, the relationship between CCTV and deterrence has been left implicit. Empirical research has yet to directly test whether CCTV increases the certainty of punishment, a key component of the deterrence doctrine. This study analyzes CCTV’s relation to punishment certainty in Newark, NJ. Across eight crime categories, CCTV and 9-1-1 calls-for-service case processing times and enforcement rates are compared through Mann-Whitney U and Fisher’s Exact tests, respectively, with a Holm-Bonferroni procedure correcting for multiple comparisons. ANOVA and negative binomial regression models further analyze the frequency of CCTV activity and the impact of various factors on the (downward) trend of detections and enforcement. Findings suggest that CCTV increases punishment certainty on a case-by-case basis. However, a reduction of CCTV activity caused by specific “surveillance barriers” likely minimized the effect of the enhanced enforcement.

Place-based correlates of Motor Vehicle Theft and Recovery: Measuring spatial influence across neighbourhood context

Social scientists have long shown great interest in the spatial correlates of crime patterns. A subset of the literature has focused on how micro-level spatial factors influence the formation of crime hot spots. At the same time, tangential research has highlighted how neighbourhood disadvantage influences crime occurrence. The current study focuses on the intersection of these perspectives through a spatial analysis of Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT) and Motor Vehicle Recovery (MVR) in Colorado Springs, CO. We begin by conducting a Risk Terrain Modelling analysis to identify spatial risk factors significantly related to MVT and MVR occurrence. We then test whether the spatial influences of the criminogenic risk factors differ across traditional measures of neighbourhood disadvantage. Findings suggest that while a citywide effect is evident for multiple risk factors, their spatial influence on crime significantly varies across neighbourhood contexts.

Joint Utility of Event-Dependent and Environmental Crime Analysis Techniques for Violent Crime Forecasting:

Violent crime incidents occurring in Irvington, New Jersey, in 2007 and 2008 are used to assess the joint analytical capabilities of point pattern analysis, hotspot mapping, near-repeat analysis, and risk terrain modeling. One approach to crime analysis suggests that the best way to predict future crime occurrence is to use past behavior, such as actual incidents or collections of incidents, as indicators of future behavior. An alternative approach is to consider the environment in which crimes occur and identify features of the landscape that would be conducive to crime. Thanks to advances in geographic information system technology and federally funded (free) software applications such as CrimeStat III or the Near Repeat Calculator, these methods have recently been made more accessible to “average” users. This study explores the information products that each method offers for the purposes of place-based violent crime forecasting and resource allocation. Findings help to answer questions about where, when, and why violent crimes occur in a jurisdiction. Ways in which event-dependent and environmental crime analysis techniques can be utilized as complementary instruments in a crime analyst’s tool kit are discussed in detail.

Exploring the Defensive Actions of Drug Sellers in Open-air Markets: A Systematic Social Observation

Objectives: The current study contributes to the literature through a systematic social observation of the defensive actions of drug sellers within open-air retail markets. The study expands upon previous literature by incorporating a novel data collection and coding method. Methods: Video footage of narcotics transactions was extracted from the closed-circuit television (CCTV) system of the Newark, NJ Police Department. Researchers transcribed and coded the footage to measure the frequency of defensive actions incorporated by drug sellers. Fisher’s exact tests measured whether the frequency of each defensive action significantly differed across geographic setting or time of day. Results: The frequency of many defensive actions was significantly related to geographic setting and time of day. The strongest relationship was observed between the use of stash spots and setting. Overall, the findings suggest that drug sellers adopt tenets of Opportunity Theory to protect themselves from law enforcement, specifically by acting as guardians and place managers on their own behalf. Conclusions: This study extends prior techniques and provides an additional case study on the use of CCTV footage in the study of street-level crime. This methodology can be used in concert with more traditional ethnographic techniques in the study of the drug trade and in crime-and-place research in general.

Crime in Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations to Explore the Dynamics of Criminogenic Behavior Settings

Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is a geospatial crime analysis tool designed to diagnose environmental risk factors for crime and identify the places where their spatial influence is collocated to produce vulnerability for illegal behavior. However, the collocation of certain risk factors’ spatial influences may result in more crimes than the collocation of a different set of risk factors’ spatial influences. Absent from existing RTM outputs and methods is a straightforward method to compare these relative interactions and their effects on crime. However, as a multivariate method for the analysis of discrete categorical data, conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) can enable exploration of the interrelationships between risk factors’ spatial influences and their varying effects on crime occurrence. In this study, we incorporate RTM outputs into a CACC to explore the dynamics among certain risk factors’ spatial influences and how they create unique environmental contexts, or behavior settings, for crime at microlevel places. We find that most crime takes place within a few unique behavior settings that cover a small geographic area and, further, that some behavior settings were more influential on crime than others. Moreover, we identified particular environmental risk factors that aggravate the influence of other risk factors. We suggest that by focusing on these microlevel environmental crime contexts, police can more efficiently target their resources and further enhance place-based approaches to policing that fundamentally address environmental features that produce ideal opportunities for crime.

Spatial risk factors of felonious battery to police officers

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to examine the spatial influence of features of the physical environment on the risk of aggression toward law enforcement. Design/methodology/approach – The spatial analytic technique, risk terrain modeling was performed on felonious battery data provided by the Chicago Police Department. Findings – Out of the 991 batteries against law enforcement officers (LEOs) in Chicago, 11 features of the physical environment were identified as presenting a statistically significant spatial risk of battery to LEOs. Calls for service within three blocks of foreclosures and/or within a dense area of problem buildings pose as much as two times greater risk of battery to police officers than what is presented by other significant spatial factors in the model. Originality/value – An abundance of existing research on aggression toward law enforcement is situated from the perspective of characteristics of the suspect or officer. The research advances the field of violence studies by il...

The crime prevention effect of CCTV in public places: a propensity score analysis

Abstract This study measures the effect of CCTV in Newark, NJ across three separate crime categories: auto theft, theft from auto, and violent crime. CCTV viewsheds, denoting camera line-of-sight, were units of analysis. Viewsheds for treatment units were created by digitizing live CCTV footage within a geographic information system (GIS). Control viewsheds were created with GIS tools and aerial imagery from Google maps. Treatment cases were matched with control cases via propensity score matching (PSM) to ensure statistical equivalency between groups. Effect was measured via odds ratios and average treatment on the treated statistics. Findings offer modest support for CCTV as a deterrent against auto theft while demonstrating no effect on the other crime types. These results suggest that CCTV appears to be a viable option for jurisdictions wishing to target auto theft. Agencies suffering from other street-level crime problems may not benefit from CCTV and may need to deploy CCTV alongside other evidence-based strategies, rather than as a stand-alone tactic, in order to achieve crime control benefits.