Joel M. Caplan

Risk Terrain Modeling: Brokering Criminological Theory and GIS Methods for Crime Forecasting

The research presented here has two key objectives. The first is to apply risk terrain modeling (RTM) to forecast the crime of shootings. The risk terrain maps that were produced from RTM use a range of contextual information relevant to the opportunity structure of shootings to estimate risks of future shootings as they are distributed throughout a geography. The second objective was to test the predictive power of the risk terrain maps over two six‐month time periods, and to compare them against the predictive ability of retrospective hot spot maps. Results suggest that risk terrains provide a statistically significant forecast of future shootings across a range of cut points and are substantially more accurate than retrospective hot spot mapping. In addition, risk terrain maps produce information that can be operationalized by police administrators easily and efficiently, such as for directing police patrols to coalesced high‐risk areas.

“A Plague on both Your Houses?”: Risks, Repeats and Reconsiderations of Urban Residential Burglary

Research has shown that mapping techniques are useful in forecasting future crime events. However, the majority of prospective mapping techniques has focused on the event-dependent influence of instigator incidents on subsequent incidents and does not explicitly incorporate the risk heterogeneity of the setting. The study here discussed is a modest attempt to address this issue by using a two-step process: first, using risk terrain modeling, we operationalized the “environmental backcloth,” (the risk heterogeneity of an area) to forecast locations of residential burglaries in the urban city of Newark, New Jersey. Second, using the near repeat calculator, we assessed the variability of underlying risk between different types of residential burglaries. A discussion of the findings and the joint utility of these approaches is provided.

The Impact of Severe Mental Illness On Parole Decisions Social Integration Within a Prison Setting

This study examined the extent to which severe mental illness (SMI) affects parole release decisions either directly or indirectly through its association with other factors considered in the parole release decision-making process. A random sample of 407 inmates with parole release decisions in 2007 (200 with SMI and 207 without SMI) was selected from the New Jersey State Parole Board. Data on inmates’ program participation, misconduct, and job assignments while incarcerated along with levels of community support and other pertinent release factors were collected. Differences between the SMI and non-SMI groups as well as the relationships among study variables, SMI, and release decisions were examined. Findings indicate that persons with SMI were released to parole at a rate similar to that of persons without SMI. However, the presence of SMI was associated with disciplinary infractions while incarcerated, which in turn negatively affected parole release decisions. Policy implications are discussed.

Is the Punishment More Certain? An Analysis of CCTV Detections and Enforcement

The primary preventive mechanism of CCTV is considered to be deterrence. However, the relationship between CCTV and deterrence has been left implicit. Empirical research has yet to directly test whether CCTV increases the certainty of punishment, a key component of the deterrence doctrine. This study analyzes CCTV’s relation to punishment certainty in Newark, NJ. Across eight crime categories, CCTV and 9-1-1 calls-for-service case processing times and enforcement rates are compared through Mann-Whitney U and Fisher’s Exact tests, respectively, with a Holm-Bonferroni procedure correcting for multiple comparisons. ANOVA and negative binomial regression models further analyze the frequency of CCTV activity and the impact of various factors on the (downward) trend of detections and enforcement. Findings suggest that CCTV increases punishment certainty on a case-by-case basis. However, a reduction of CCTV activity caused by specific “surveillance barriers” likely minimized the effect of the enhanced enforcement.

Place-based correlates of Motor Vehicle Theft and Recovery: Measuring spatial influence across neighbourhood context

Social scientists have long shown great interest in the spatial correlates of crime patterns. A subset of the literature has focused on how micro-level spatial factors influence the formation of crime hot spots. At the same time, tangential research has highlighted how neighbourhood disadvantage influences crime occurrence. The current study focuses on the intersection of these perspectives through a spatial analysis of Motor Vehicle Theft (MVT) and Motor Vehicle Recovery (MVR) in Colorado Springs, CO. We begin by conducting a Risk Terrain Modelling analysis to identify spatial risk factors significantly related to MVT and MVR occurrence. We then test whether the spatial influences of the criminogenic risk factors differ across traditional measures of neighbourhood disadvantage. Findings suggest that while a citywide effect is evident for multiple risk factors, their spatial influence on crime significantly varies across neighbourhood contexts.

Joint Utility of Event-Dependent and Environmental Crime Analysis Techniques for Violent Crime Forecasting:

Violent crime incidents occurring in Irvington, New Jersey, in 2007 and 2008 are used to assess the joint analytical capabilities of point pattern analysis, hotspot mapping, near-repeat analysis, and risk terrain modeling. One approach to crime analysis suggests that the best way to predict future crime occurrence is to use past behavior, such as actual incidents or collections of incidents, as indicators of future behavior. An alternative approach is to consider the environment in which crimes occur and identify features of the landscape that would be conducive to crime. Thanks to advances in geographic information system technology and federally funded (free) software applications such as CrimeStat III or the Near Repeat Calculator, these methods have recently been made more accessible to “average” users. This study explores the information products that each method offers for the purposes of place-based violent crime forecasting and resource allocation. Findings help to answer questions about where, when, and why violent crimes occur in a jurisdiction. Ways in which event-dependent and environmental crime analysis techniques can be utilized as complementary instruments in a crime analyst’s tool kit are discussed in detail.

POLICE CYNICISM: POLICE SURVIVAL TOOL?

This article broadly defines cynicism as a pessimistic and suspicious outlook on the part of police officers towards their job, the public and society as a whole. Cynicism is an evolving characteristic of even the most idealistic police recruits. Since it appears to be inevitable, should it be considered an unpleasant epidemic and condemned, or should it be respected and embraced as a necessary police survival skill? Through comprehensive research and the authors self-analysis of journal entries made when he worked as a police officer, this article seeks to understand why police become cynical. Then it looks at the effects of cynicism on the police personality and police–community relations. While cynicism has negative side-effects for police personnel, its positive role in police work cannot be overlooked. The public expects a proactive, crime-fighting police force. For this reason, cynicism can be a valuable tool for the police.

A Profile of Paroling Authorities in America: The Strange Bedfellows of Politics and Professionalism

The use of discretionary decision making in parole has been the subject of much criticism over the past three decades. Whether it is either discretionary decision making per se or the context within which such decisions are made that is problematic is unknown. This article captures a profile of how paroling authorities are organized, how their members are appointed, and the work experience, training, and credential requirements that underpin the appointment process. The importance of the relationship between professionalism and discretionary decision making is discussed. Recommendations are made for future studies addressing the relationship between professional qualifications of paroling authority members and parole outcomes.

Crime in Context: Utilizing Risk Terrain Modeling and Conjunctive Analysis of Case Configurations to Explore the Dynamics of Criminogenic Behavior Settings

Risk terrain modeling (RTM) is a geospatial crime analysis tool designed to diagnose environmental risk factors for crime and identify the places where their spatial influence is collocated to produce vulnerability for illegal behavior. However, the collocation of certain risk factors’ spatial influences may result in more crimes than the collocation of a different set of risk factors’ spatial influences. Absent from existing RTM outputs and methods is a straightforward method to compare these relative interactions and their effects on crime. However, as a multivariate method for the analysis of discrete categorical data, conjunctive analysis of case configurations (CACC) can enable exploration of the interrelationships between risk factors’ spatial influences and their varying effects on crime occurrence. In this study, we incorporate RTM outputs into a CACC to explore the dynamics among certain risk factors’ spatial influences and how they create unique environmental contexts, or behavior settings, for crime at microlevel places. We find that most crime takes place within a few unique behavior settings that cover a small geographic area and, further, that some behavior settings were more influential on crime than others. Moreover, we identified particular environmental risk factors that aggravate the influence of other risk factors. We suggest that by focusing on these microlevel environmental crime contexts, police can more efficiently target their resources and further enhance place-based approaches to policing that fundamentally address environmental features that produce ideal opportunities for crime.

Home Nodes, Criminogenic Places, and Parolee Failure: Testing an Environmental Model of Offender Risk

This article examines whether potentially criminogenic places (including bars, liquor stores, restaurants, public transport hubs, drug markets, and more), located within a 1,240-feet radius of parolees’ residences (the home “node”), predict their rearrest or revocation. Taking these features into account, in addition to individual traits and behaviors, might pave the way for more accurate risk assessment that could help make supervision sensitive to place-based risks. However, multivariate survival analysis of 1,632 parolees released to Newark during July 2007 to June 2009 found little evidence that these factors increased the risk of failure. Successful operationalization of environmental risk will probably need to incorporate more detailed measures of parolees’ routine activities, including the settings and paths they frequent beyond their home environment.