Eric Raufaste

Dimensionality of the Revised Life Orientation Test and the status of filler items

Dispositional optimism was originally construed as unidimensional (Scheier & Carver, 1992). However, LOT‐R data (Scheier, Carver, & Bridges, 1994) generally appeared bidimensional as a number of studies suggest a two‐correlated‐factor model representing optimism and pessimism. Attempts at corroborating one‐factor models suggest that correlated errors between positively worded items are required for an adequate account of the data. This article explains bidimensionality by the influence of social desirability (i.e., being positive is desirable). Namely, in the present study, correlated errors are interpreted as the presence of individual differences related to the tendency to present oneself in a positive manner. Moreover, response styles can be corroborated by appropriately modelling the entire covariance matrix (i.e., including fillers), by checking that fillers with positive meaning correlate with the faking‐good group factor. Students (N = 442) responded to a French adaptation of the LOT‐R. The data we...

Pertinence generation in radiological diagnosis: Spreading activation and the nature of expertise

An empirical study of human expert reasoning processes is presented. Its purpose is to test a model of how a human expert’s cognitive system learns to detect, and does detect, pertinent data and hypotheses. This process is called pertinence generation. The model is based on the phenomenon of spreading activation within semantic networks. Twenty-two radiologists were asked to produce diagnoses from two very difficult X-ray films. As the model predicted, pertinence increased with experience and with semantic network integration. However, the experts whose daily work involved explicit reasoning were able, in addition, to go beyond and to generate more pertinence. The results suggest that two qualitatively different kinds of expertise, basic and super, should be distinguished. A reinterpretation of the results of Lesgold et al. (1988) is proposed, suggesting that apparent nonmonotonicities in performance ore not representative of common radiological expertise acquisition but result from the inclusion of basic and super expertise on the same curve.

Testing the descriptive validity of possibility theory in human judgments of uncertainty

Many works in the past showed that human judgments of uncertainty do not conform very well to probability theory. The present paper reports four experiments that were conducted in order to evaluate if human judgments of uncertainty conform better to possibility theory. At first, two experiments investigate the descriptive properties of some basic possibilistic measures. Then a new measurement apparatus is used, the Ψ-scale, to compare possibilistic vs. probabilistic disjunction and conjunction. Results strongly suggest that a human judgment is qualitative in essence, closer to a possibilistic than to a probabilistic approach of uncertainly. The paper also describes a qualitative heuristic, for conjunction, which was used by expert radiologists.

Processing of normal, inverted, and scrambled faces in a patient with prosopagnosia: behavioural and eye tracking data.

In this study, we addressed the issue of a spared processing of faces in a patient (SB) with severe prosopagnosia. We designed an experiment comprising of two parts. In Part I, normal upright faces were entwined with scrambled faces, while in Part II normal upright faces were mixed with inverted faces, under unlimited time exposure. Performance, decision times, and eye movements were measured in both parts. The results indicated that SB categorised the normal faces better in the context of inverted faces than in the context of scrambled faces. Furthermore, SBs performance was better for the inverted faces than for the scrambled faces. Overall, SB performed better on the abnormal faces than on the normal faces, as did the control participants. Eye-tracking data showed that the pattern observed for the number of fixations and for exploration order was similar in SB and in controls. In the discussion, we propose that, despite his severe prosopagnosia, SB might have retained some kind of processing specific to face perception. Further investigations will be required, using limited time exposure, to determine the nature of this spared processing.

Politeness and Conditional Reasoning: Interpersonal Cues to the Indirect Suppression of Deductive Inferences.

A successful theory of conditional reasoning requires an account of how reasoners recognize the pragmatic function a conditional statement is meant to perform. Situations in which it is ambiguous whether a conditional statement was meant to add information or to correct a mistake are discussed in this article. This ambiguity has direct consequences on the way reasoners update their beliefs and derive conclusions. In an analysis of ambiguity from the perspective of politeness theory, the authors suggest that any contextual factor that increases the face threat of a correction will encourage reasoners to construe the ambiguous conditional as a correction. This construal will impact their beliefs about the piece of information that is ambiguously corrected, and their beliefs will affect the deductive conclusions they are willing to draw. This nested mediation structure was observed in 2 experiments. The first experiment manipulated the threat level of a correction through the portrayed personality of the person being corrected; the second experiment manipulated the affective distance between the corrector and the corrected.

An Empirical Study of Statistical Properties of the Choquet and Sugeno Integrals

This paper investigates the statistical properties of the Choquet and Sugeno integrals, used as multiattribute models. The investigation is done on an empirical basis, and focuses on two topics: the distribution of the output of these integrals when the input is corrupted with noise, and the robustness of these models when they are identified using some set of learning data through some learning procedure.

Determinants of conflict detection: a model of risk judgments in air traffic control

Objective: A model of conflict judgments in air traffic control (ATC) is proposed. Background: Three horizontal distances determine risk judgments about conflict between two aircraft: (a) Dt 0 is the distance between the crossing of the aircraft trajectories and the first aircraft to reach that point; (b) Dt h is the distance between the two aircraft when they are horizontally closest; and (c) Dt v is the horizontal distance between the two aircraft when their growing vertical distance reaches 1,000 feet. Methods: Two experiments tested whether the variables in the model reflect what controllers do. In Experiment 1, 125 certified controllers provided risk judgments about situations in which the model variables were manipulated. Experiment 2 investigated the relationship between the model and expertise by comparing a population of certified controllers with a population of ATC students. Results: Across both experiments, the model accounted for 44% to 50% of the variance in risk judgments by certified controllers (N = 161) but only 20% in judgments by ATC students (N = 88). There were major individual differences in the predictive power of the model as well as in the contributions of the three variables. In Experiment 2, the model described experts better than novices. Conclusion: The model provided a satisfying account of the data, albeit with substantial individual differences. It is argued that an individual-differences approach is required when investigating the strategies involved in conflict judgment in ATC. Application: These findings should have implications for developing user-friendly interfaces with conflict detection devices and for devising ATC training programs.

Non-Bayesian Inference: Causal Structure Trumps Correlation

The study tests the hypothesis that conditional probability judgments can be influenced by causal links between the target event and the evidence even when the statistical relations among variables are held constant. Three experiments varied the causal structure relating three variables and found that (a) the target event was perceived as more probable when it was linked to evidence by a causal chain than when both variables shared a common cause; (b) predictive chains in which evidence is a cause of the hypothesis gave rise to higher judgments than diagnostic chains in which evidence is an effect of the hypothesis; and (c) direct chains gave rise to higher judgments than indirect chains. A Bayesian learning model was applied to our data but failed to explain them. An explanation-based hypothesis stating that statistical information will affect judgments only to the extent that it changes beliefs about causal structure is consistent with the results.

Imperfect or Perfect Dynamic Bipolarity? The Case of Antonymous Affective Judgments.

How is affective change rated with positive adjectives such as good related to change rated with negative adjectives such as bad? Two nested perfect and imperfect forms of dynamic bipolarity are defined using latent change structural equation models based on tetrads of items. Perfect bipolarity means that latent change scores correlate -1. Meaningful structural equation modeling (SEM) analyses of self-rated affect may require analyzing polychoric correlations, if self-ratings are collected using ordered categories. The models were applied to 6 4-wave datasets from Steyer and Riedl (2004). Results suggest that perfect bipolarity is generally compatible with valence self-ratings, whereas imperfect bipolarity is compatible with tension and energy self-ratings. Methodological and substantive limits of the approach are discussed.

Elicitating Sugeno Integrals: Methodology and a Case Study

Sugeno integrals are aggregation functions that return a global evaluation that is between the minimum and the maximum of the combined evaluations. The paper addresses the problem of the elicitation of (families of) Sugeno integrals agreeing with a set of data, made of tuples gathering the partial evaluations according to the different evaluation criteria together with the corresponding global evaluation. The situation where there is no Sugeno integral that is compatible with a whole set of data is especially studied. The representation of mental workload data is used as an illustrative example, where several distinct families of Sugeno integrals are necessary for covering the set of data (since the way mental workload depends on its evaluation criteria may vary with contexts). Apart this case study illustration, the contributions of the paper are an analytical characterization of the set of Sugeno integrals compatible with a set of data, the expression of conditions ensuring that pieces of data are compatible with a representation by a common Sugeno integral, and a simulated annealing optimization algorithm for computing a minimal number of families of Sugeno integrals sufficient for covering a set of data.