Eric S. Blake

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005

Abstract The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, including 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina—the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over

Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center

100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record.

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2004

Abstract The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008

Abstract The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized, and the year’s tropical and subtropical cyclones are described. Fifteen named storms, including six “major” hurricanes, developed in 2004. Overall activity was nearly two and a half times the long-term mean. The season was one of the most devastating on record, resulting in over 3100 deaths basinwide and record property damage in the United States.

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2006

Abstract The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. Sixteen named storms formed in 2008. Of these, eight became hurricanes with five of them strengthening into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). There was also one tropical depression that did not attain tropical storm strength. These totals are above the long-term means of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced significant impacts from the Greater Antilles to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma hit Cuba, as did Tropical Storm Fay. Haiti was hit by Gustav and adversely affected by heavy rains from Fay, Ike, and Hanna. Paloma struck the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane, while Omar was a major hurricane when it passed near the northern Leeward Islands. Six consecutive cyclones hit the United States, including Hurrica...

The record-breaking 2015 hurricane season in the eastern North Pacific: An analysis of environmental conditions

The hurricane season of 2006 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Also, the official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are verified and evaluated. The 2006 eastern North Pacific season was an active one, in which 18 tropical storms formed. Of these, 10 became hurricanes and 5 became major hurricanes. A total of 2 hurricanes and 1 tropical depression made landfall in Mexico, causing 13 direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2006 were quite skillful. No appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecasts was noted, however.

North-Central Pacific Tropical Cyclones: Impacts of El Niño–Southern Oscillation and the Madden–Julian Oscillation

The presence of a near-record El Nino and a positive Pacific Meridional Mode provided an extraordinarily warm background state that fueled the 2015 eastern North Pacific hurricane season to near-record levels. We find that the western portion of the eastern North Pacific, referred to as the Western Development Region (WDR; 10°–20°N, 116°W–180°), set records for named storms, hurricane days, and Accumulated Cyclone Energy in 2015. When analyzing large-scale environmental conditions, we show that record warm sea surface temperatures, high midlevel relative humidity, high low-level relative vorticity, and record low vertical wind shear were among the environmental forcing factors contributing to the observed tropical cyclone activity. We assess how intraseasonal atmospheric variability may have contributed to active and inactive periods observed during the 2015 hurricane season. We document that, historically, active seasons are associated with May–June El Nino conditions, potentially allowing for predictability of future active WDR seasons.

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2008

AbstractBoth El Nino–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) have been documented in previous research to impact tropical cyclone (TC) activity around the globe. This study examines the relationship of each mode individually along with a combined index on tropical cyclone activity in the north-central Pacific. Approximately twice as many tropical cyclones form in the north-central Pacific in El Nino years compared with La Nina years. These differences are attributed to a variety of factors, including warmer sea surface temperatures, lower sea level pressures, increased midlevel moisture, and anomalous midlevel ascent in El Nino years. When the convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is located over the eastern and central tropical Pacific, the north-central Pacific tends to have more tropical cyclone activity, likely because of reduced vertical wind shear, lower sea level pressures, and increased vertical motion. The convectively enhanced phase of the MJO is also responsible for...

Eastern North Pacific Hurricane Season of 2011

Abstract The hurricane season of 2008 in the eastern North Pacific basin is summarized, and the individual tropical cyclones are described. Official track and intensity forecasts of these cyclones are also evaluated. The 2008 eastern North Pacific season was relatively quiet, with overall activity at about 75% of the long-term median. A total of 16 tropical storms formed, of which 7 became hurricanes and 2 became major hurricanes. One hurricane, one tropical storm, and two tropical depressions made landfall in Mexico, causing eight direct deaths in that country along with significant property damage. In addition, Tropical Storm Alma was the first tropical cyclone on record to make landfall along the Pacific coast of Nicaragua. On average, the official track forecasts in the eastern Pacific for 2008 were quite skillful and set records for accuracy from 1 to 3 days. However, no appreciable improvement in mean intensity forecast skill was noted.

Comments on “Structure and Evolution of a Possible U.S. Landfalling Tropical Storm in 2006”

AbstractOverall activity during the 2011 eastern North Pacific hurricane season was near average. Of the 11 tropical storms that formed, 10 became hurricanes and 6 reached major hurricane strength (category 3 or stronger on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane wind scale). For comparison, the 1981–2010 averages are about 15 tropical storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes. Interestingly, although the number of named storms was below average, the numbers of hurricanes and major hurricanes were above average. The 2011 season had the most hurricanes since 2006 and the most major hurricanes since 1998. Two hurricanes affected the southwestern coast of Mexico (Beatriz as a category 1 hurricane and Jova as a category 2 hurricane), and the season’s tropical cyclones caused about 49 deaths. On average, the National Hurricane Center track forecasts in the eastern North Pacific for 2011 were very skillful.