John L. Beven

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2005

Abstract The 2005 Atlantic hurricane season was the most active of record. Twenty-eight storms occurred, including 27 tropical storms and one subtropical storm. Fifteen of the storms became hurricanes, and seven of these became major hurricanes. Additionally, there were two tropical depressions and one subtropical depression. Numerous records for single-season activity were set, including most storms, most hurricanes, and highest accumulated cyclone energy index. Five hurricanes and two tropical storms made landfall in the United States, including four major hurricanes. Eight other cyclones made landfall elsewhere in the basin, and five systems that did not make landfall nonetheless impacted land areas. The 2005 storms directly caused nearly 1700 deaths. This includes approximately 1500 in the United States from Hurricane Katrina—the deadliest U.S. hurricane since 1928. The storms also caused well over

Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center

100 billion in damages in the United States alone, making 2005 the costliest hurricane season of record.

THE DVORAK TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY ESTIMATION TECHNIQUE A Satellite-Based Method that Has Endured for over 30 Years

Abstract The National Hurricane Center issues analyses, forecasts, and warnings over large parts of the North Atlantic and Pacific Oceans, and in support of many nearby countries. Advances in observational capabilities, operational numerical weather prediction, and forecaster tools and support systems over the past 15–20 yr have enabled the center to make more accurate forecasts, extend forecast lead times, and provide new products and services. Important limitations, however, persist. This paper discusses the current workings and state of the nation’s hurricane warning program, and highlights recent improvements and the enabling science and technology. It concludes with a look ahead at opportunities to address challenges.

ANNUAL SUMMARY: Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2001

The history of meteorology has taught us that weather analysis and prediction usually advances by a series of small, progressive studies. Occasionally, however, a special body of work can accelerate this process. When that work pertains to high-impact weather events that can affect large populations, it is especially notable. In this paper we review the contributions by Vernon F. Dvorak, whose innovations using satellite observations of cloud patterns fundamentally enhanced the ability to monitor tropical cyclones on a global scale. We discuss how his original technique has progressed, and the ways in which new spaceborne instruments are being employed to complement Dvoraks original visions.

A REANALYSIS OF HURRICANE ANDREW'S INTENSITY

Abstract Activity during the 2001 hurricane season was similar to that of the 2000 season. Fifteen tropical storms developed, with nine becoming hurricanes and four major hurricanes. Two tropical depressions failed to become tropical storms. Similarities to the 2000 season include overall activity much above climatological levels and most of the cyclones occurring over the open Atlantic north of 25°N. The overall “lateness” of the season was notable, with 11 named storms, including all the hurricanes, forming after 1 September. There were no hurricane landfalls in the United States for the second year in a row. However, the seasons tropical cyclones were responsible for 93 deaths, including 41 from Tropical Storm Allison in the United States, and 48 from Hurricanes Iris and Michelle in the Caribbean.

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2004

Hurricane Andrew of 1992 caused unprecedented economic devastation along its path through the Bahamas, southeastern Florida, and Louisiana. Damage in the United States was estimated to be

An Evaluation of Dvorak Technique-Based Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimates

26 billion (in 1992 dollars), making Andrew one of the most expensive natural disasters in U.S. history. This hurricane struck southeastern Florida with maximum 1-min surface winds estimated in a 1992 poststorm analysis at 125 kt (64 m s−1). This original assessment was primarily based on an adjustment of aircraft reconnaissance flight-level winds to the surface. Based on recent advancements in the understanding of the eyewall wind structure of major hurricanes, the official intensity of Andrew was adjusted upward for five days during its track across the Atlantic Ocean and Gulf of Mexico by the National Hurricane Center Best Track Change Committee. In particular, Andrew is now assessed by the National Hurricane Center to be a Saffir–Simpson Hurricane Scale category-5 hurricane (the highest intensity category possible) ...

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2008

Abstract The 2004 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized, and the year’s tropical and subtropical cyclones are described. Fifteen named storms, including six “major” hurricanes, developed in 2004. Overall activity was nearly two and a half times the long-term mean. The season was one of the most devastating on record, resulting in over 3100 deaths basinwide and record property damage in the United States.

Atlantic Hurricane Season of 2002

Abstract The satellite-based Dvorak technique (DVKT) is the most widely available and readily used tool for operationally estimating the maximum wind speeds associated with tropical cyclones. The DVKT itself produces internally consistent results, is reproducible, and has shown practical accuracy given the high cost of in situ or airborne observations. For these reasons, the DVKT has been used in a reasonably uniform manner globally for approximately 20 years. Despite the nearly universal use of this technique, relatively few systematic verifications of the DVKT have been conducted. This study, which makes use of 20 yr of subjectively determined DVKT-based intensity estimates and best-track intensity estimates influenced by aircraft observations (i.e., ±2 h) in the Atlantic basin, seeks to 1) identify the factors (intensity, intensity trends, radius of outer closed isobar, storm speed, and latitude) that bias the DVKT-based intensity estimates, 2) quantify those biases as well as the general error charact...

Atlantic hurricane season of 2003

Abstract The 2008 Atlantic hurricane season is summarized and the year’s tropical cyclones are described. Sixteen named storms formed in 2008. Of these, eight became hurricanes with five of them strengthening into major hurricanes (category 3 or higher on the Saffir–Simpson hurricane scale). There was also one tropical depression that did not attain tropical storm strength. These totals are above the long-term means of 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes. The 2008 Atlantic basin tropical cyclones produced significant impacts from the Greater Antilles to the Turks and Caicos Islands as well as along portions of the U.S. Gulf Coast. Hurricanes Gustav, Ike, and Paloma hit Cuba, as did Tropical Storm Fay. Haiti was hit by Gustav and adversely affected by heavy rains from Fay, Ike, and Hanna. Paloma struck the Cayman Islands as a major hurricane, while Omar was a major hurricane when it passed near the northern Leeward Islands. Six consecutive cyclones hit the United States, including Hurrica...