Erica A. H. Smithwick

Continued warming could transform Greater Yellowstone fire regimes by mid-21st century

Climate change is likely to alter wildfire regimes, but the magnitude and timing of potential climate-driven changes in regional fire regimes are not well understood. We considered how the occurrence, size, and spatial location of large fires might respond to climate projections in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem (GYE) (Wyoming), a large wildland ecosystem dominated by conifer forests and characterized by infrequent, high-severity fire. We developed a suite of statistical models that related monthly climate data (1972–1999) to the occurrence and size of fires >200 ha in the northern Rocky Mountains; these models were cross-validated and then used with downscaled (∼12 km × 12 km) climate projections from three global climate models to predict fire occurrence and area burned in the GYE through 2099. All models predicted substantial increases in fire by midcentury, with fire rotation (the time to burn an area equal to the landscape area) reduced to <30 y from the historical 100–300 y for most of the GYE. Years without large fires were common historically but are expected to become rare as annual area burned and the frequency of regionally synchronous fires increase. Our findings suggest a shift to novel fire–climate–vegetation relationships in Greater Yellowstone by midcentury because fire frequency and extent would be inconsistent with persistence of the current suite of conifer species. The predicted new fire regime would transform the flora, fauna, and ecosystem processes in this landscape and may indicate similar changes for other subalpine forests.

POTENTIAL UPPER BOUNDS OF CARBON STORES IN FORESTS OF THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST

Placing an upper bound to carbon (C) storage in forest ecosystems helps to constrain predictions on the amount of C that forest management strategies could sequester and the degree to which natural and anthropogenic disturbances change C storage. The potential, upper bound to C storage is difficult to approximate in the field because it requires studying old-growth forests, of which few remain. In this paper, we put an upper bound (or limit) on C storage in the Pacific Northwest (PNW) of the United States using field data from old-growth forests, which are near steady-state conditions. Specifically, the goals of this study were: (1) to approximate the upper bounds of C storage in the PNW by estimating total ecosystem carbon (TEC) stores of 43 old-growth forest stands in five distinct biogeoclimatic provinces and (2) to compare these TEC storage estimates with those from other biomes, globally. Finally, we suggest that the upper bounds of C storage in forests of the PNW are higher than current estimates of C stores, presumably due to a combination of natural and anthropogenic disturbances, which indicates a potentially substantial and economically significant role of C sequestration in the region. Results showed that coastal Oregon stands stored, on average, 1127 Mg C/ha, which was the highest for the study area, while stands in eastern Oregon stored the least, 195 Mg C/ha. In general, coastal Oregon stands stored 307 Mg C/ha more than coastal Washington stands. Similarly, the Oregon Cascades stands stored 75 Mg C/ha more, on average, than the Washington Cascades stands. A simple, area-weighted average TEC storage to 1 m soil depth (TEC 100 ) for the PNW was 671 Mg C/ha. When soil was included only to 50 cm (TEC50), the area-weighted average was 640 Mg C/ha. Subtracting estimates of current forest C storage from the potential, upper bound of C storage in this study, a maximum of 338 Mg C/ha (TEC100) could be stored in PNW forests in addition to current stores.

Predicting fine root lifespan from plant functional traits in temperate trees

Although linkages of leaf and whole-plant traits to leaf lifespan have been rigorously investigated, there is a limited understanding of similar linkages of whole-plant and fine root traits to root lifespan. In comparisons across species, do suites of traits found in leaves also exist for roots, and can these traits be used to predict root lifespan? We observed the fine root lifespan of 12 temperate tree species using minirhizotrons in a common garden and compared their median lifespans with fine-root and whole-plant traits. We then determined which set of combined traits would be most useful in predicting patterns of root lifespan. Median root lifespan ranged widely among species (95-336 d). Root diameter, calcium content, and tree wood density were positively related to root lifespan, whereas specific root length, nitrogen (N) : carbon (C) ratio, and plant growth rate were negatively related to root lifespan. Root diameter and plant growth rate, together (R² = 0.62) or in combination with root N : C ratio (R² = 0.76), were useful predictors of root lifespan across the 12 species. Our results highlight linkages between fine root lifespan in temperate trees and plant functional traits that may reduce uncertainty in predictions of root lifespan or turnover across species at broader spatial scales.

Spatial Extrapolation: The Science of Predicting Ecological Patterns and Processes

Abstract Ecologists are often asked to contribute to solutions for broadscale problems. The extent of most ecological research is relatively limited, however, necessitating extrapolation to broader scales or to new locations. Spatial extrapolation in ecology tends to follow a general framework in which (a) the objectives are defined and a conceptual model is derived; (b) a statistical or simulation model is developed to generate predictions, possibly entailing scaling functions when extrapolating to broad scales; and (c) the results are evaluated against new data. In this article, we examine the application of this framework in a variety of contexts, using examples from the scientific literature. We conclude by discussing the challenges, limitations, and future prospects for extrapolation.

Postfire Soil N Cycling in Northern Conifer Forests Affected by Severe, Stand-Replacing Wildfires

Severe, stand-replacing fires affect large areas of northern temperate and boreal forests, potentially modifying ecosystem function for decades after their occurrence. Because these fires occur over large extents, and in areas where plant production is limited by nitrogen (N) availability, the effect of fire on N cycling may be important for long-term ecosystem productivity. In this article, we review what is known about postfire N cycling in northern temperate and boreal forests experiencing stand-replacing fires. We then build upon existing literature to identify the most important mechanisms that control postfire N availability in systems experiencing severe, stand-replacing fires compared with fires of lower severity. These mechanisms include changes in abiotic conditions caused by the opening of the canopy (for example, decreased LAI, increased solar radiation), changes in ground layer quantity and quality (for example, nutrient release, permafrost levels), and postfire plant and microbial adaptations affecting N fixation and N uptake (for example, serotiny, germination cues). Based on the available literature, these mechanisms appear to affect N inputs, internal N cycling, and N outputs in various ways, indicating that severe fire systems are variable across time and space as a result of complex interactions between postfire abiotic and biotic factors. Future experimental work should be focused on understanding these mechanisms and their variability across the landscape.

Inorganic nitrogen availability after severe stand-replacing fire in the Greater Yellowstone ecosystem

Understanding ecosystem processes as they relate to wildfire and vegetation dynamics is of growing importance as fire frequency and extent increase throughout the western United States. However, the effects of severe, stand-replacing wildfires are poorly understood. We studied inorganic nitrogen pools and mineralization rates after stand-replacing wildfires in the Greater Yellowstone Ecosystem, Wyoming. After fires that burned in summer 2000, soil ammonium concentration peaked in 2001 (33 mg NH4-N· kgsoil−1); soil nitrate increased subsequently (2.7 mg NO3-N·kgsoil−1 in 2003) but was still low. However, annual net ammonification rates were largely negative from 2001 to 2004, indicating ammonium depletion. Thus, although net nitrification rates were positive, annual net nitrogen mineralization (net ammonification plus net nitrification) remained low. Aboveground net primary production (ANPP) increased from 0.25 to 1.6 Mg·ha−1·yr−1 from 2001 to 2004, but variation in ANPP among stands was not related to net nitrogen mineralization rates. Across a broader temporal gradient (stand age zero to >250 yr), negative rates of net annual ammonification were especially pronounced in the first postfire year. Laboratory incubations using 15N isotope pool dilution revealed that gross production of ammonium was reduced and ammonium consumption greatly exceeded gross production during the initial postfire years. Our results suggest a microbial nitrogen sink for several years after severe, stand-replacing fire, confirming earlier hypotheses about postdisturbance succession and nutrient cycling in cold, fire-dominated coniferous forests. Postfire forests in Yellowstone seem to be highly conservative for nitrogen, and microbial immobilization of ammonium plays a key role during early succession.

Variability in root production, phenology, and turnover rate among 12 temperate tree species

The timing of fine root production and turnover strongly influences both the seasonal potential for soil resource acquisition among competing root systems and the plant fluxes of root carbon into soil pools. However, basic patterns and variability in the rates and timing or fine root production and turnover are generally unknown among perennial plants species. We address this shortfall using a heuristic model relating root phenology to turnover together with three years of minirhizotron observations of root dynamics in 12 temperate tree species grown in a common garden. We specifically investigated how the amount and the timing of root production differ among species and how they impact estimates of fine root turnover. Across the 12 species, there was wide variation in the timing of root production with some species producing a single root flush in early summer and others producing roots either more uniformly over the growing season or in multiple pulses. Additionally, the pattern and timing of root production appeared to be consistent across years for some species but varied in others. Root turnover rate was related to total root production (P < 0.001) as species with greater root production typically had faster root turnover rates. We also found that, within species, annual root production varied up to a threefold increase between years, which led to large interannual differences in turnover rate. Results from the heuristic model indicated that shifting the pattern or timing of root production can impact estimates of root turnover rates for root populations with life spans less than one year while estimates of root turnover rate for longer lived roots were unaffected by changes in root phenology. Overall, we suggest that more detailed observations of root phenology and production will improve fidelity of root turnover estimates. Future efforts should link patterns of root phenology and production with whole-plant life history traits and variation in annual and seasonal climate.

Landscape heterogeneity following large fires: insights from Yellowstone National Park, USA

We characterised the remarkable heterogeneity following the large, severe fires of 1988 in Yellowstone National Park (YNP), in the northern Rocky Mountains, Wyoming, USA, by focussing on spatial variation in post-fire structure, composition and ecosystem function at broad, meso, and fine scales. Ecological heterogeneity at multiple scales may enhance resilience to large, severe disturbances by providing structural, biological and functional redundancy. Post-fire heterogeneity in stand age, coarse wood abundance, microbial and understorey communities reflected interactions between existing pre-fire patterns and fire severity at different scales, suggesting that environmental context plays an important role in successional responses to large fires. In response to these post-fire patterns, heterogeneity in carbon (C) and nitrogen (N) storage, N mineralisation, decomposition, and productivity was also evident at multiple scales and may confer resiliency to large fires. For example, at broad scales, C storage in YNP appears resistant to changes in age-class structure associated with large stand-replacing fires. In summary, the YNP landscape is recovering rapidly from the 1988 fires through natural mechanisms, owing to the abundance and spatial heterogeneity of post-fire residuals, but other systems with fewer biotic legacies may be less resilient to such large, severe fires.

Buruli Ulcer Disease and Its Association with Land Cover in Southwestern Ghana

Background Buruli ulcer (BU), one of 17 neglected tropical diseases, is a debilitating skin and soft tissue infection caused by Mycobacterium ulcerans. In tropical Africa, changes in land use and proximity to water have been associated with the disease. This study presents the first analysis of BU at the village level in southwestern Ghana, where prevalence rates are among the highest globally, and explores fine and medium-scale associations with land cover by comparing patterns both within BU clusters and surrounding landscapes. Methodology/Principal Findings We obtained 339 hospital-confirmed BU cases in southwestern Ghana between 2007 and 2010. The clusters of BU were identified using spatial scan statistics and the percentages of six land cover classes were calculated based on Landsat and Rapid Eye imagery for each of 154 villages/towns. The association between BU prevalence and each land cover class was calculated using negative binomial regression models. We found that older people had a significantly higher risk for BU after considering population age structure. BU cases were positively associated with the higher percentage of water and grassland surrounding each village, but negatively associated with the percent of urban. The results also showed that BU was clustered in areas with high percentage of mining activity, suggesting that water and mining play an important and potentially interactive role in BU occurrence. Conclusions/Significance Our study highlights the importance of multiple land use changes along the Offin River, particularly mining and agriculture, which might be associated with BU disease in southwestern Ghana. Our study is the first to use both medium- and high-resolution imagery to assess these changes. We also show that older populations (≥ 60 y) appear to be at higher risk of BU disease than children, once BU data were weighted by population age structures.

Regional scale patterns of fine root lifespan and turnover under current and future climate

Fine root dynamics control a dominant flux of carbon from plants and into soils and mediate potential uptake and cycling of nutrients and water in terrestrial ecosystems. Understanding of these patterns is needed to accurately describe critical processes like productivity and carbon storage from ecosystem to global scales. However, limited observations of root dynamics make it difficult to define and predict patterns of root dynamics across broad spatial scales. Here, we combine species-specific estimates of fine root dynamics with a model that predicts current distribution and future suitable habitat of temperate tree species across the eastern United States (US). Estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover are based on empirical observations and relationships with fine root and whole-plant traits and apply explicitly to the fine root pool that is relatively short-lived and most active in nutrient and water uptake. Results from the combined model identified patterns of faster root turnover rates in the North Central US and slower turnover rates in the Southeastern US. Portions of Minnesota, Ohio, and Pennsylvania were also predicted to experience >10% increases in root turnover rates given potential shifts in tree species composition under future climate scenarios while root turnover rates in other portions of the eastern US were predicted to decrease. Despite potential regional changes, the average estimates of root lifespan and turnover for the entire study area remained relatively stable between the current and future climate scenarios. Our combined model provides the first empirically based, spatially explicit, and spatially extensive estimates of fine root lifespan and turnover and is a potentially powerful tool allowing researchers to identify reasonable approximations of forest fine root turnover in areas where no direct observations are available. Future efforts should focus on reducing uncertainty in estimates of root dynamics by better understanding how climate and soil factors drive variability in root dynamics of different species.