Erica E. M. Moodie

T-Cell Assays for Tuberculosis Infection: Deriving Cut-Offs for Conversions Using Reproducibility Data

Background Although interferon-gamma release assays (IGRA) are promising alternatives to the tuberculin skin test, interpretation of repeated testing results is hampered by lack of evidence on optimal cut-offs for conversions and reversions. A logical start is to determine the within-person variability of T-cell responses during serial testing. Methodology/Principal Findings We performed a pilot study in India, to evaluate the short-term reproducibility of QuantiFERON-TB Gold In Tube assay (QFT) among 14 healthcare workers (HCWs) who underwent 4 serial QFT tests on day 0, 3, 9 and 12. QFT ELISA was repeated twice on the same sets of specimens. We assessed two types of reproducibility: 1) test-retest reproducibility (between-test variability), and 2) within-person reproducibility over time. Test-retest reproducibility: with dichotomous test results, extremely high concordance was noticed between two tests performed on the same sets of specimens: of the 56 samples, the test and re-test results agreed for all but 2 individuals (κ = 0.94). Discordance was noted in subjects who had IFN-γ values around the cut-off point, with both increases and decreases noted. With continuous IFN-γ results, re-test results tended to produce higher estimates of IFN-γ than the original test. Within-person reproducibility: when continuous IFN-γ data were analyzed, the within-person reproducibility was moderate to high. While persons with negative QFT results generally stayed negative, positive results tended to vary over time. Our data showed that increases of more than 16% in the IFN-γ levels are statistically improbable in the short-term. Conclusions Conservatively assuming that long-term variability might be at least twice higher than short-term, we hypothesize that a QFT conversion requires two conditions to be met: 1) change from negative to positive result, and 2) at least 30% increase in the baseline IFN-γ response. Larger studies are needed to confirm our preliminary findings, and determine the conversion thresholds for IGRAs.

The impact of antibiotics on growth in children in low and middle income countries: systematic review and meta-analysis of randomised controlled trials

Objectives To determine whether antibiotic treatment leads to improvements in growth in prepubertal children in low and middle income countries, to determine the magnitude of improvements in growth, and to identify moderators of this treatment effect. Design Systematic review and meta-analysis. Data sources Medline, Embase, Scopus, the Cochrane central register of controlled trials, and Web of Science. Study selection Randomised controlled trials conducted in low or middle income countries in which an orally administered antibacterial agent was allocated by randomisation or minimisation and growth was measured as an outcome. Participants aged 1 month to 12 years were included. Control was placebo or non-antimicrobial intervention. Results Data were pooled from 10 randomised controlled trials representing 4316 children, across a variety of antibiotics, indications for treatment, treatment regimens, and countries. In random effects models, antibiotic use increased height by 0.04 cm/month (95% confidence interval 0.00 to 0.07) and weight by 23.8 g/month (95% confidence interval 4.3 to 43.3). After adjusting for age, effects on height were larger in younger populations and effects on weight were larger in African studies compared with other regions. Conclusion Antibiotics have a growth promoting effect in prepubertal children in low and middle income countries. This effect was more pronounced for ponderal than for linear growth. The antibiotic growth promoting effect may be mediated by treatment of clinical or subclinical infections or possibly by modulation of the intestinal microbiota. Better definition of the mechanisms underlying this effect will be important to inform optimal and safe approaches to achieving healthy growth in vulnerable populations.

Is Antiretroviral Therapy Causing Long-Term Liver Damage? A Comparative Analysis of HIV-Mono-Infected and HIV/Hepatitis C Co-Infected Cohorts

The effects of highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) on progression of hepatic fibrosis in HIV-hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infection are not well understood. Deaths from liver diseases have risen in the post-HAART era, yet some cross-sectional studies have suggested that HAART use is associated with improved fibrosis rates. In a retrospective cohort of 533 HIV mono-infected and 127 HIV/HCV co-infected patients, followed between January 1991 and July 2005 at a university-based HIV clinic, we investigated the relationship between cumulative HAART exposure and hepatic fibrosis, as measured by the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI). We used a novel methodological approach to estimate the dose-response relationship of the effect of HAART exposure on APRI. HAART was associated with increasing APRI over time in HIV/HCV co-infected patients suggesting that they may be experiencing cumulative hepatotoxicity from antiretrovirals. The estimated median change (95% confidence interval) in APRI per one year of HAART intake was of −0.46% (−1.61% to 0.71%) in HIV mono-infected compared to 2.54% (−1.77% to 7.03%) in HIV/HCV co-infected patients. Similar results were found when the direct effect of HAART intake since the last visit was estimated on the change in APRI. HAART use associated is with increased APRI in patients with HIV/HCV co-infection. Therefore treatment for HCV infection may be required to slow the growing epidemic of end-stage liver disease in this population.

Effect of Cumulating Exposure to Abacavir on the Risk of Cardiovascular Disease Events in Patients From the Swiss HIV Cohort Study.

Background:Patients with HIV exposed to the antiretroviral drug abacavir may have an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD). There is concern that this association arises because of a channeling bias. Even if exposure is a risk, it is not clear how that risk changes as exposure cumulates. Methods:We assess the effect of exposure to abacavir on the risk of CVD events in the Swiss HIV Cohort Study. We use a new marginal structural Cox model to estimate the effect of abacavir as a flexible function of past exposures while accounting for risk factors that potentially lie on a causal pathway between exposure to abacavir and CVD. Results:A total of 11,856 patients were followed for a median of 6.6 years; 365 patients had a CVD event (4.6 events per 1000 patient-years). In a conventional Cox model, recent—but not cumulative—exposure to abacavir increased the risk of a CVD event. In the new marginal structural Cox model, continued exposure to abacavir during the past 4 years increased the risk of a CVD event (hazard ratio = 2.06; 95% confidence interval: 1.43 to 2.98). The estimated function for the effect of past exposures suggests that exposure during the past 6–36 months caused the greatest increase in risk. Conclusions:Abacavir increases the risk of a CVD event: the effect of exposure is not immediate, rather the risk increases as exposure cumulates over the past few years. This gradual increase in risk is not consistent with a rapidly acting mechanism, such as acute inflammation.

How generalizable are the results from trials of Direct Antiviral Agents to people coinfected with HIV/Hepatitis C virus in the real world?

Trial results are used to support licensure, inform cost-effectiveness analyses, and guide clinical decision making. We found the majority of coinfected patients were not included in clinical trials of direct-acting antivirals, raising concerns about the generalizability of these trial results.

The Impact of Antiretroviral Therapy in a Cohort of HIV Infected Patients Going in and out of the San Francisco County Jail

Background Jails are an important venue of HIV care and a place for identification, treatment and referral for care. HIV infected inmates in the San Francisco County jail are offered antiretroviral treatment (ART), which many take only while in jail. We evaluated the effect of ART administration in a cohort of jail inmates going in and out of jail over a nine year period. Methodology/Principal Findings In this retrospective study, we examined inmates with HIV going in and out of jail. Inmates were categorized by patterns of ART use: continuous ART - ART both in and out of jail, intermittent ART - ART only in jail; never on ART - eligible by national guidelines, but refused ART. CD4 and HIV viral load (VL) were compared over time in these groups. Over a 9 year period, 512 inmates were studied: 388 (76%) on intermittent ART, 79 (15%) on continuous ART and 45(9%) never-on ART. In a linear mixed model analysis, inmates on intermittent ART were 1.43; 95%CI (1.03, 1.99) times and those never on ART were 2.89; 95%CI (1.71, 4.87) times more likely to have higher VL than inmates on continuous ART. Furthermore, Inmates on intermittent ART and never-on ART lost 1.60; 95%CI (1.06, 2.13) and 1.97; 95%CI (0.96, 3.00) more CD4 cells per month, respectively, compared to continuously treated inmates. The continuous ART inmates gained 0.67CD4 cells/month. Conclusions/Significance Continuous ART therapy in jail inmates benefits CD4 cell counts and control of VL especially compared to those who never took ART. Although jail inmates on intermittent ART were more likely to lose CD4 cells and experience higher VL over time than those on continuous ART, CD4 cell loss was slower in these inmates as compared to inmates never on ART. Further studies are needed to evaluate whether or not intermittent ART provides some benefit in outcome if continuous ART is not possible or likely.

Estimating Response-Maximized Decision Rules With Applications to Breastfeeding

To estimate the sequence of actions that optimizes response in a longitudinal setting, it is important to study the actions as part of a set of decision rules rather than in a series of single-action comparisons. We take as our motivating example the estimation of the set of decision rules for the duration of breastfeeding with a view to maximizing infant growth. Breastfeeding has many well-recognized beneficial effects on health and development. However observational evidence has suggested that breastfeeding is associated with reduced infant growth, although the long-term consequences for stature and adiposity remain controversial. The Promotion of Breastfeeding Intervention Trial (PROBIT) recruited 17,046 women in which hospitals and their affiliated polyclinics in Belarus were randomized to a breastfeeding promotion intervention or to standard care. In this article, we propose Structural Mean Models and estimate their parameters using G-estimation to obtain unbiased estimates of the effect of continued breastfeeding on infant growth (weight or length) at one year of age. We also implement a modified version of the G-estimation algorithm that is asymptotically unbiased; this is the first real-data application of the algorithm. Finally, we compare the decision rules implied by the G-estimates with the decision implied by a myopic optimization estimation approach, that is, we compare with decision rules that maximize response in the short-term. The breastfeeding regimes selected by each of the three models are optimal in the sense that specific criteria were optimized; the criteria considered here (maximizing weight or length) were chosen for simplicity, but may not lead to better overall health. We demonstrate in the context of a breastfeeding promotion intervention trial that optimal myopic decision strategies do not coincide with strategies that optimize a longer-term response. Please see the online supplements for a correction to this article.

HIV and hepatitis C virus coinfection in Canada: challenges and opportunities for reducing preventable morbidity and mortality

Hepatitis C virus (HCV) has emerged as an important health problem in the era of effective HIV treatment. However, very few data exist on the health status and disease burden of HIV/HCV‐coinfected Canadians.

Marijuana Smoking Does Not Accelerate Progression of Liver Disease in HIV–Hepatitis C Coinfection: A Longitudinal Cohort Analysis

In a large human immunodeficiency virus–hepatitis C virus coinfection cohort, we found no evidence that marijuana smoking accelerated progression to significant liver fibrosis, cirrhosis, or end-stage liver disease. Previous studies reporting an association may have been biased by reverse causation due to self-medication.

Antiretroviral treatment interruption leads to progression of liver fibrosis in HIV-hepatitis C virus co-infection.

Objective:Despite potential negative consequences, HIV/hepatitis C virus (HCV) co-infected patients may discontinue antiretroviral treatment (ART) for several reasons. We examined the impact of ART interruption on liver fibrosis progression in co-infected adults, using the aspartate aminotransferase-to-platelet ratio index (APRI) as a surrogate marker of liver fibrosis. Method:Data were analyzed from a multisite prospective cohort of 541 HIV–HCV co-infected adults. ART interruption was included as a time-updated variable and defined as the cessation of all antiretrovirals for at least 14 days. The primary endpoint was the development of an APRI score at least 1.5. Time-dependent Cox proportional hazards regression and inverse probability-of-treatment weighting (IPTW) in a marginal structural model were used to evaluate the association of baseline and time-varying covariates with developing significant fibrosis. Results:Patients were followed for a median of 1.02 years; 10% (n = 53) interrupted ART and 10% (n = 53) developed significant fibrosis. After accounting for potential confounders, including CD4+ T-cell count, HIV viral load, baseline APRI score, age and gender, the hazard ratio for ART interruption was 2.52 (95% confidence interval 1.20–5.28). Use of IPTW resulted in a similar effect estimate, suggesting that mediation by time-varying confounders was negligible. Conclusion:ART interruption was associated with an increased risk of fibrosis progression in HIV–HCV co-infection that was only partially accounted for by HIV viral load and CD4+ T-cell counts. Our findings suggest that liver disease progression observed in ART-treated co-infected patients is partly due to the consequences of treatment interruptions.