Erik A. Beever

Patterns of apparent extirpation among isolated populations of pikas (Ochotona princeps) in the Great Basin

Abstract We conducted exploratory analyses to examine the relative roles played by natural and anthropogenic influences on persistence of a montane mammal. We revisited historical locations of pikas (Ochotona princeps) within the hydrographic Great Basin during summers of 1994–1999. Seven of 25 populations (28%) reported earlier in the 20th century appeared to have experienced recent extirpations. We assessed causative agents of faunal change using several alternative, but not mutually exclusive, hypotheses. Higher probability of persistence was correlated with greater area of talus habitat at local and mountain-range scales, higher elevation, more easterly longitude, more southern latitude, lack of livestock grazing, greater distance to primary roads, and wilderness management. However, only area of habitat in the mountain range, maximum elevation of talus habitat, and distance to primary roads appeared in the most parsimonious model of persistence when we used Akaikes information criterion model-selection technique. These results suggest that relaxation of montane faunas may occur more rapidly than previously expected; that biogeographic models of species occurrence can be refined by including more proximate factors (e.g., grazing status, proximity to roads); and that habitat-based approaches to modelling vertebrate trends should be accompanied by field data because population loss can occur with no apparent change in habitat.

Evidence and implications of recent and projected climate change in Alaska's forest ecosystems

The structure and function of Alaskas forests have changed significantly in response to a changing climate, including alterations in species composition and climate feedbacks (e.g., carbon, radiation budgets) that have important regional societal consequences and human feedbacks to forest ecosystems. In this paper we present the first comprehensive synthesis of climate-change impacts on all forested ecosystems of Alaska, highlighting changes in the most critical biophysical factors of each region. We developed a conceptual framework describing climate drivers, biophysical factors and types of change to illustrate how the biophysical and social subsystems of Alaskan forests interact and respond directly and indirectly to a changing climate. We then identify the regional and global implications to the climate system and associated socio-economic impacts, as presented in the current literature. Projections of temperature and precipitation suggest wildfire will continue to be the dominant biophysical factor in the Interior-boreal forest, leading to shifts from conifer- to deciduous-dominated forests. Based on existing research, projected increases in temperature in the Southcentral- and Kenai-boreal forests will likely increase the frequency and severity of insect outbreaks and associated wildfires, and increase the probability of establishment by invasive plant species. In the Coastal-temperate forest region snow and ice is regarded as the dominant biophysical factor. With continued warming, hydrologic changes related to more rapidly melting glaciers and rising elevation of the winter snowline will alter discharge in many rivers, which will have important consequences for terrestrial and marine ecosystem productivity. These climate-related changes will affect plant species distribution and wildlife habitat, which have regional societal consequences, and trace-gas emissions and radiation budgets, which are globally important. Our conceptual framework facilitates assessment of current and future consequences of a changing climate, emphasizes regional differences in biophysical factors, and points to linkages that may exist but that currently lack supporting research. The framework also serves as a visual tool for resource managers and policy makers to develop regional and global management strategies and to inform policies related to climate mitigation and adaptation.

American Pikas (Ochotona princeps) in Northwestern Nevada: A Newly Discovered Population at a Low-elevation Site

Abstract The central tenet of island biogeography theory—that species assemblages on islands are functions of island area, isolation from mainlands, and vicariance—has been altered by the demonstrable effects that rapid climate change is imposing on insular faunas, at least in isolated mountaintops. Although populations of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) continue to suffer extirpations, and although the lower bounds of the pikas elevational distribution are shifting upslope across the Great Basin, we report here on the new discovery of a low-elevation population of pikas in a mountain range from which they had not been reported previously. This discovery, particularly in the context of relatively rapid ecological change, highlights the importance of seeking out original sources of information and performing spatially extensive fieldwork. Results presented here further illustrate that although thermal influences appear to be the single strongest determinant of pika distribution currently, such influences interact with a number of other factors to determine persistence.

Assessing the components of adaptive capacity to improve conservation and management efforts under global change

Natural-resource managers and other conservation practitioners are under unprecedented pressure to categorize and quantify the vulnerability of natural systems based on assessment of the exposure, sensitivity, and adaptive capacity of species to climate change. Despite the urgent need for these assessments, neither the theoretical basis of adaptive capacity nor the practical issues underlying its quantification has been articulated in a manner that is directly applicable to natural-resource management. Both are critical for researchers, managers, and other conservation practitioners to develop reliable strategies for assessing adaptive capacity. Drawing from principles of classical and contemporary research and examples from terrestrial, marine, plant, and animal systems, we examined broadly the theory behind the concept of adaptive capacity. We then considered how interdisciplinary, trait- and triage-based approaches encompassing the oft-overlooked interactions among components of adaptive capacity can be used to identify species and populations likely to have higher (or lower) adaptive capacity. We identified the challenges and value of such endeavors and argue for a concerted interdisciplinary research approach that combines ecology, ecological genetics, and eco-physiology to reflect the interacting components of adaptive capacity. We aimed to provide a basis for constructive discussion between natural-resource managers and researchers, discussions urgently needed to identify research directions that will deliver answers to real-world questions facing resource managers, other conservation practitioners, and policy makers. Directing research to both seek general patterns and identify ways to facilitate adaptive capacity of key species and populations within species, will enable conservation ecologists and resource managers to maximize returns on research and management investment and arrive at novel and dynamic management and policy decisions.

Understanding relationships among abundance, extirpation, and climate at ecoregional scales

Recent research on mountain-dwelling species has illustrated changes in species distributional patterns in response to climate change. Abundance of a species will likely provide an earlier warning indicator of change than will occupancy, yet relationships between abundance and climatic factors have received less attention. We tested whether predictors of counts of American pikas (Ochotona princeps) during surveys from the Great Basin region in 1994-1999 and 2003-2008 differed between the two periods. Additionally, we tested whether various modeled aspects of ecohydrology better predicted relative density than did average annual precipitation, and whether risk of site-wide extirpation predicted subsequent population counts of pikas. We observed several patterns of change in pika abundance at range edges that likely constitute early warnings of distributional shifts. Predictors of pika abundance differed strongly between the survey periods, as did pika extirpation patterns previously reported from this region. Additionally, maximum snowpack and growing-season precipitation resulted in better-supported models than those using average annual precipitation, and constituted two of the top three predictors of pika density in the 2000s surveys (affecting pikas perhaps via vegetation). Unexpectedly, we found that extirpation risk positively predicted subsequent population size. Our results emphasize the need to clarify mechanisms underlying biotic responses to recent climate change at organism-relevant scales, to inform management and conservation strategies for species of concern.

CHARACTERIZING GRAZING DISTURBANCE IN SEMIARID ECOSYSTEMS ACROSS BROAD SCALES, USING DIVERSE INDICES

Although management and conservation strategies continue to move toward broader spatial scales and consideration of many taxonomic groups simultaneously, researchers have struggled to characterize responses to disturbance at these scales. Most studies of disturbance by feral grazers investigate effects on only one or two ecosystem elements across small spatial scales, limiting their applicability to ecosystem-level management. To address this inadequacy, in 1997 and 1998 we examined disturbance created by feral horses (Equus caballus) in nine mountain ranges of the western Great Basin, USA, using plants, small mammals, ants, and soil compaction as indicators. Nine horse-occupied and 10 horse-removed sites were stratified into high- and low-elevation groups, and all sites at each elevation had similar vegetation type, aspect, slope gradient, and recent (≥15-yr) fire and livestock-grazing histories. Using reciprocal averaging and TWINSPAN analyses, we compared relationships among sites using five data sets: abiotic variables, percent cover by plant species, an index of abundance by plant species, 10 disturbance-sensitive response variables, and grass and shrub species considered “key” indicators by land managers. Although reciprocal averaging and TWINSPAN analyses of percent cover, abiotic variables, and key species suggested relationships between sites influenced largely by biogeography (i.e., mountain range), disturbance-sensitive variables clearly segregated horse-occupied and horse-removed sites. These analyses suggest that the influence of feral horses on many Great Basin ecosystem attributes is not being detected by monitoring only palatable plant species. We recommend development of an expanded monitoring strategy based not only on established vegetation measurements investigating forage consumption, but also including disturbance-sensitive variables (e.g., soil surface hardness, abundance of ant mounds) that more completely reflect the suite of effects that a large-bodied grazer may impose on mountain ecosystems, independent of vegetation differences. By providing a broader-based mechanism for detection of adverse effects, this strategy would provide management agencies with defensible data in a sociopolitical arena that has been embroiled in conflict for several decades. Corresponding Editor: D. P. C. Peters.

Long‐term plant responses to climate are moderated by biophysical attributes in a North American desert

Summary 1. Recent elevated temperatures and prolonged droughts in many already water-limited regions throughout the world, including the southwestern United States, are likely to intensify according to future climate-model projections. This warming and drying can negatively affect perennial vegetation and lead to the degradation of ecosystem properties. 2. To better understand these detrimental effects, we formulate a conceptual model of dryland ecosystem vulnerability to climate change that integrates hypotheses on how plant species will respond to increases in temperature and drought, including how plant responses to climate are modified by landscape, soil and plant attributes that are integral to water availability and use. We test the model through a synthesis of fifty years of repeat measurements of perennial plant species cover in large permanent plots across the Mojave Desert, one of the most water-limited ecosystems in North America. 3. Plant species ranged in their sensitivity to precipitation in different seasons, capacity to increase in cover with high precipitation and resistance to decrease in cover with low precipitation. 4. Our model successfully explains how plant responses to climate are modified by biophysical attributes in the Mojave Desert. For example, deep-rooted plants were not as vulnerable to drought on soils that allowed for deep-water percolation, whereas shallow-rooted plants were better buffered from drought on soils that promoted water retention near the surface. 5. Synthesis. Our results emphasize the importance of understanding climate–vegetation relationships in the context of biophysical attributes that influence water availability and provide an important forecast of climate-change effects, including plant mortality and land degradation in dryland regions throughout the world.

Ecological consequences of climate change: mechanisms, conservation, and management.

Ecological Consequences of Climate Change: Mechanisms, Conservation, and Management provides a mechanistic understanding of biotic responses to climate change, in order to better inform conservation and management strategies. Incorporating modeling and real-world examples from diverse taxa, ecosystems, and spatio-temporal scales, the book first presents research on recently observed rapid shifts in temperature and precipitation. It then explains how these shifts alter the biotic landscape within species and ecosystems, and how they may be expected to impose changes in the future. Also included are major sections on monitoring and conservation efforts in the face of contemporary climate change. Contributors highlight the general trends expected in wildlife and ecological responses as well as the exceptions and contingencies that may mediate those responses.

Successes and Challenges from Formation to Implementation of Eleven Broad-Extent Conservation Programs

Integration of conservation partnerships across geographic, biological, and administrative boundaries is increasingly relevant because drivers of change, such as climate shifts, transcend these boundaries. We explored successes and challenges of established conservation programs that span multiple watersheds and consider both social and ecological concerns. We asked representatives from a diverse set of 11 broad-extent conservation partnerships in 29 countries 17 questions that pertained to launching and maintaining partnerships for broad-extent conservation, specifying ultimate management objectives, and implementation and learning. Partnerships invested more funds in implementing conservation actions than any other aspect of conservation, and a programs context (geographic extent, United States vs. other countries, developed vs. developing nation) appeared to substantially affect program approach. Despite early successes of these organizations and benefits of broad-extent conservation, specific challenges related to uncertainties in scaling up information and to coordination in the face of diverse partner governance structures, conflicting objectives, and vast uncertainties regarding future system dynamics hindered long-term success, as demonstrated by the focal organizations. Engaging stakeholders, developing conservation measures, and implementing adaptive management were dominant challenges. To inform future research on broad-extent conservation, we considered several challenges when we developed detailed questions, such as what qualities of broad-extent partnerships ensure they complement, integrate, and strengthen, rather than replace, local conservation efforts and which adaptive management processes yield actionable conservation strategies that account explicitly for dynamics and uncertainties regarding multiscale governance, environmental conditions, and knowledge of the system?

Microrefuges and the occurrence of thermal specialists: implications for wildlife persistence amidst changing temperatures

BackgroundContemporary climate change is affecting nearly all biomes, causing shifts in animal distributions, phenology, and persistence. Favorable microclimates may buffer organisms against rapid changes in climate, thereby allowing time for populations to adapt. The degree to which microclimates facilitate the local persistence of climate-sensitive species, however, is largely an open question. We addressed the importance of microrefuges in mammalian thermal specialists, using the American pika (Ochotona princeps) as a model organism. Pikas are sensitive to ambient temperatures, and are active year-round in the alpine where conditions are highly variable. We tested four hypotheses about the relationship between microrefuges and pika occurrence: 1) Local-habitat Hypothesis (local-habitat conditions are paramount, regardless of microrefuge); 2) Surface-temperature Hypothesis (surrounding temperatures, unmoderated by microrefuge, best predict occurrence); 3) Interstitial-temperature Hypothesis (temperatures within microrefuges best predict occurrence), and 4) Microrefuge Hypothesis (the degree to which microrefuges moderate the surrounding temperature facilitates occurrence, regardless of other habitat characteristics). We examined pika occurrence at 146 sites across an elevational gradient. We quantified pika presence, physiographic habitat characteristics and forage availability at each site, and deployed paired temperature loggers at a subset of sites to measure surface and subterranean temperatures.ResultsWe found strong support for the Microrefuge Hypothesis. Pikas were more likely to occur at sites where the subsurface environment substantially moderated surface temperatures, especially during the warm season. Microrefugium was the strongest predictor of pika occurrence, independent of other critical habitat characteristics, such as forage availability.ConclusionsBy modulating surface temperatures, microrefuges may strongly influence where temperature-limited animals persist in rapidly warming environments. As climate change continues to manifest, efforts to understand the changing dynamics of animal-habitat relationships will be enhanced by considering the quality of microrefuges.