Erin A. Orrick

Analyzing the Presence and Consequences of Unobserved Heterogeneity in Recidivism Research

This study extends research on recidivism by examining the phenomenon via a survival mixture modeling approach, a method that is analogous to mixture modeling approaches used in trajectory analyses. Using this approach, the authors discover that multiple recidivism profiles are identifiable within a random sample of inmates released from Florida prisons between January 1998 and June 2001. Findings revealed that certain covariates predicted class membership and operated differently across the groups in predicting the hazard of recidivism, suggesting that a unilateral approach to reducing recidivism risk is an ineffective strategy. The Discussion section presents the findings in the context of theory, research, and policy.

Were cell phones associated with lower crime in the 1990s and 2000s

Empirical studies of the crime decline of the 1990s and early 2000s have focused on factors such as: incarceration, economy, policing, demographics, security-related technology, and abortion. One recent analysis examined the growth in mobile phone technology, finding tentative support for a deterrent effect, but is in need of expansion and replication. The current study uses national-level data from 1984 to 2009 and performs time-series analysis to examine the relationship between cell phone ownership and a range of crime types. Results indicate a significant, negative relationship between changes in cell phone ownership rates and changes in the property crime index, even with controls for relevant crime-drop variables, but a very minimal relationship to the violent crime index. Implications and directions for future research are noted.

Assessing the Impact of Mexican Nativity on Sentence Length

Discussions about race/ethnicity and crime are controversial and not surprisingly, such controversies have extended to the immigration–crime link as well. The emerging quantitative knowledge base on this relationship however suggests that immigrant status may actually serve as a protective factor against (serious) criminal involvement. Largely absent from this line of research has been a consideration of how immigrant status, especially Mexican nativity, is related to criminal justice sentencing decisions. In this article, we use data from more than 12,000 U.S. state and federal prisoners to examine sentence length disparities between Mexican- and native-born citizens. Our primary finding is that while there may be some impact of being Mexican born on sentence length, the negligible differences indicate that offenders who are Mexican born are likely to receive shorter sentences than their native-born counterparts, controlling for a variety of legal and extralegal factors. Directions for future research are highlighted.

Assessing the impact of deportable status on sentencing outcomes in a sample of state prisoners

Abstract Much of the existing discussion surrounding the immigration–crime link has been influenced by public perceptions of the criminality of illegal immigrants. Recent empirical studies, however, suggest that immigrant status may instead operate as a protective factor, shielding immigrants from (serious) criminal offending. Rarely investigated is the extent to which illegal immigration, construed as deportability status, relates to criminal justice sentencing decisions. Using data from a cohort of inmates incarcerated for a new offense during 2008 in a large southern state, this study examines the impact of a federal immigration detainer on sentence length and type, controlling for a variety of legal and extralegal factors. Using propensity score matching, results indicate that inmates with federal immigration detainers received significantly shorter sentences compared to non-deportable inmates. No significant difference was found in the likelihood of receiving a life or death sentence between inmates with and without immigration detainers.

State- and Individual-Level Predictors of Mexican Death Penalty Support

Mexico exerts a unique influence on Texas through immigration. As immigrants bring perspectives from their country of origin when they immigrate, studying attitudes toward capital punishment in Mexico may provide insight into ways Mexican immigrants could affect its future practice in Texas. Multilevel modeling is used to examine individual- and state-level predictors of death penalty support among a nationally representative sample of Mexicans. Results indicate age and Catholic affiliation are associated with death penalty support, although not in the expected directions, whereas states bordering the United States are less likely to support capital punishment, despite experiencing less overall peace and a higher average homicide rate. Findings suggest the need for researchers to use culture-specific factors to predict death penalty support.

Red States and Black Lives: Applying the Racial Threat Hypothesis to the Black Lives Matter Movement

Abstract Despite increased media attention, the Black Lives Matter (BLM) movement has received little scholarly attention. News coverage of BLM is often divisive, which suggests important differences may exist in how the public views BLM. Within the context of the racial threat perspective, the present study uses a nationally representative sample of 2,114 individuals from 33 states and the District of Columbia to identify state- and individual-level predictors of BLM opposition. Results reveal that older, Republican, and conservative men are more likely to oppose BLM, while Blacks and individuals who perceive their local police to exhibit racial biases against Blacks are less likely to oppose BLM. State-level racial threat variables are largely nonsignificant, but states with more fatal police shootings are less likely to oppose BLM, while states where the Republican candidate won a greater percentage of the vote in the 2012 presidential election are more likely to oppose BLM.

Impact of Employment Satisfaction and Stress on Time to Recidivism

ABSTRACT Age-graded theories of crime attempt to understand the predictors of continuity and change in offending, where informal social institutions, such as employment, are posited as turning points leading to desistance from crime. Research testing the relationship between employment and offending finds employment playing an important role in the desistance process; however, questions remain of the importance of job quality. Studies examining job quality and recidivism have inconsistently applied the concept of quality. Using a sample of releases from the Serious and Violent Offender Reentry Initiative, this study examines how job satisfaction and stress influence time to recidivism. Results indicate that job satisfaction is significantly related to increased time to rearrest, but no significant relationship was found for job stress.