Erin Coughlan de Perez

Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation

Significance Understanding the vulnerability of societies around the world is crucial for understanding historical trends in flood risk and for producing accurate projections of fatalities and losses. We reproduced historical river flood occurrence using daily climate data for the period 1980–2010 and quantified the natural and socioeconomic contributions to flood risk trends. We show that the fatalities and losses as a share of the exposed population and gross domestic product are decreasing with rising income. We also show that there is a tendency of convergence in vulnerability levels between low- and high-income countries. Projections based on a wide range of climate change and socioeconomic development scenarios demonstrate that amplified adaptation efforts have the potential to largely contain losses from future floods. The global impacts of river floods are substantial and rising. Effective adaptation to the increasing risks requires an in-depth understanding of the physical and socioeconomic drivers of risk. Whereas the modeling of flood hazard and exposure has improved greatly, compelling evidence on spatiotemporal patterns in vulnerability of societies around the world is still lacking. Due to this knowledge gap, the effects of vulnerability on global flood risk are not fully understood, and future projections of fatalities and losses available today are based on simplistic assumptions or do not include vulnerability. We show for the first time (to our knowledge) that trends and fluctuations in vulnerability to river floods around the world can be estimated by dynamic high-resolution modeling of flood hazard and exposure. We find that rising per-capita income coincided with a global decline in vulnerability between 1980 and 2010, which is reflected in decreasing mortality and losses as a share of the people and gross domestic product exposed to inundation. The results also demonstrate that vulnerability levels in low- and high-income countries have been converging, due to a relatively strong trend of vulnerability reduction in developing countries. Finally, we present projections of flood losses and fatalities under 100 individual scenario and model combinations, and three possible global vulnerability scenarios. The projections emphasize that materialized flood risk largely results from human behavior and that future risk increases can be largely contained using effective disaster risk reduction strategies.

Factors Other Than Climate Change, Main Drivers of 2014/15 Water Shortage in Southeast Brazil

Introduction. The southeast region of Brazil (SEB, defined as the area between 15°–25°S and 40°–48°W; Fig. 9.1a) experienced remarkably dry conditions from January 2014 to February 2015, comprising the 14-month period that includes two rainy seasons investigated here. This region includes Sao Paulo, Brazil ś most populated city, which suffered impacts due to water shortages, and the watersheds and reservoirs feeding the city’s water supply system. The wet season occurs during austral summer and the dry season during austral winter. The South Atlantic convergence zone (SACZ) is the main mechanism responsible for the region’s austral summer rainfall. During summer 2014, there was a complete absence of SACZ episodes (Coelho et al. 2015). Previous major droughts occurred in the region in 1953/54, 1962/63, 1970/71, and 2001. While droughts have very complex criteria, these were all characterized by large rainfall deficits while the effect of the SACZ needs further investigation. The 1953/54 rainfall deficit prompted construction of the largest water supply system (Cantareira) used for Sao Paulo (Porto et al. 2014). The 2014/15 drought had major impacts in Sao Paulo due partly to a four-fold population increase since 1960 (Fig. 9.1b). Although new water supply systems were constructed after Cantareira, it is still by far the largest in terms of capacity and number of people supplied (until early 2015) and hence is used as an indicator of the impacts of the SEB drought on water supply. In January 2015, Cantareira, which used to supply 8.8 million people in Sao Paulo, sank to a water volume of just 5% of capacity (Fig. 9.1c), and currently supplies just 5.3 million people. Other systems (Guarapiranga and Alto Tiete) started to supply the excess population, those previously supplied by Cantareira, after the water crisis was established. In this analysis, we investigate potential changes in the hydrometeorological hazard, defined by accumulated precipitation and the difference between precipitation and evaporation (P − E) in the SEB region. The true impact, however, is due to a combination of a physical event with vulnerability and exposure, in this case on millions of people in the affected area (Field et al. 2012). The current drought reflects increasing trends in exposure. Sao Paulo’s population grew by 20% in the past 20 years. Water use has increased at an even faster rate over the same period (Fig. 9.1b). Vulnerability of water supply systems remains high. Recognizing that water governance is key to reducing vulnerability, Southeast Brazil experienced profound water shortages in 2014/15. Anthropogenic climate change is not found to be a major influence on the hazard, whereas increasing population and water consumption increased vulnerability.

Climate information for humanitarian agencies: some basic principles

Since 2005, the International Federation of Red Cross and Red Crescent Societies and the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Centre have had an ongoing partnership with the International Research Institute for Climate and Society (IRI) to connect end-users with providers of climate information. This partnership has enabled and encouraged the uptake of climate information in the humanitarian sector. From the perspective of the climate service provider, attempts to address problems of salience, credibility and legitimacy have been made by adopting the following set of principles: prioritize immediate user needs; provide only information that is relevant to the user context; provide decision support; right-scale rather than down-scale; and maintain ownership and partnership in design. Examples are presented of how these principles have been applied, highlighting not only the need to improve forecasts and their presentation, but also to address obstacles to the practical use of climate information.

Managing health risks in a changing climate: Red Cross operations in East Africa and Southeast Asia

While climate variability and change affect global patterns of disease, there are few examples of methods that effectively integrate climate into health programming. This study examines a Red Cross Red Crescent pilot project in Kenya, Tanzania, Vietnam, and Indonesia that incorporated climate information and considerations in health operations. Our investigation looks at three elements of programming: baseline community perceptions of climate and health, integration of climate information in operations, and resulting community-level risk reduction behaviour. (1) Through community focus groups, semi-structured interviews, and household surveys, our research reveals that potential health effects of climate variability and change are a key concern at the community level. (2) Project implementors used climate information to design educational materials and health contingency plans to inform when and where disease prevention activities should be concentrated. This climate-based disease anticipation and improved sharing of incidence data aimed to quickly detect and respond to changing disease patterns in a variable climate. (3) Subsequently, community-level risk reduction behaviour significantly increased in project locations. This pilot is evidence that climate information and considerations can be readily integrated into health programming to account for changing risks, using existing disease prevention techniques to address priority concerns of vulnerable communities.

Scalable and Sustainable: How to Build Anticipatory Capacity into Social Protection Systems

Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are a key factor in increasing poverty and food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument to help build resilience to climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences to date have focused on social protection’s role for chronic needs, or at best, shock-response, rather than on anticipation and prevention. This article argues that social protection can support more effective resilience building at scale by integrating early action and preparedness. We propose a concrete solution, namely linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to a social protection system to enable anticipatory actions based on forecast triggers and guaranteed funding ahead of a shock. Such a system may enhance scalability, timeliness, predictability and adequacy of social protection benefits. Key considerations for success of this emerging approach include sound analysis of forecast, risks, cost and benefits, and ring-fenced funding.

Forecast-Based Financing and Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract Humanitarian organizations and development partners are increasingly searching for ways of reducing human suffering at affordable and sustainable costs. This in part explains the growing investment and interest in early action based on sound science. The Forecast-based Financing (FbF) approach piloted in northeastern Uganda seeks to contribute to this effort. This approach involves an iterative process of matching forecasts with appropriate actions compiled into Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). In the Uganda pilot, the SOPs focused on three areas that reduce the impact of floods; enhancing water purification and storage to minimize diarrheal infections, encouraging food storage to minimize post-harvest losses, and digging drainage channels (trenches) to reduce damage to houses and gardens. There were two activations in November 2015 and April 2016 that provided an opportunity to experience a realized forecast and a false alarm. An evaluation and community consultation conducted later on generated lessons that can inform subsequent programming. Uganda Red Cross’ experience in piloting the Forecast-Based Finance approach shows that the approach has great potential to enhance climate change adaptation by strengthening early warning systems and disaster financing in developing countries.

International Conference on Climate Risk Management, inputs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report

ABSTRACT In April 2017, over 70 scientists, policymakers and practitioners from 32 countries convened at the International Conference on Climate Risk Management in Nairobi, Kenya. This conference utilized innovative approaches to facilitate a process of constructive, critical reflection of the existing climate risk management knowledge base, as well as its relevance to decision-maker needs and views of the most vulnerable people. The conference articulated recommendations to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the development of their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) – in support of the Chair’s vision for AR6 to have a strong focus on solutions. This report highlights key recommendations distilled from these discussions in areas such as risk-framing approaches and risk metrics. The meeting also suggested that the next IPCC assessment could be strengthened by stronger interaction with practitioners and policymakers working at the forefront of implementing global climate and development agreements, especially in the most vulnerable contexts, and identified associated research priorities.