Julie Arrighi

Scalable and Sustainable: How to Build Anticipatory Capacity into Social Protection Systems

Climate shocks contribute to a significant share of the humanitarian burden, and are a key factor in increasing poverty and food insecurity. Social protection is increasingly recognised as an instrument to help build resilience to climate risks through long-term, large-scale national systems. However, most experiences to date have focused on social protection’s role for chronic needs, or at best, shock-response, rather than on anticipation and prevention. This article argues that social protection can support more effective resilience building at scale by integrating early action and preparedness. We propose a concrete solution, namely linking a Forecast-based Financing mechanism to a social protection system to enable anticipatory actions based on forecast triggers and guaranteed funding ahead of a shock. Such a system may enhance scalability, timeliness, predictability and adequacy of social protection benefits. Key considerations for success of this emerging approach include sound analysis of forecast, risks, cost and benefits, and ring-fenced funding.

Forecast-Based Financing and Climate Change Adaptation

Abstract Humanitarian organizations and development partners are increasingly searching for ways of reducing human suffering at affordable and sustainable costs. This in part explains the growing investment and interest in early action based on sound science. The Forecast-based Financing (FbF) approach piloted in northeastern Uganda seeks to contribute to this effort. This approach involves an iterative process of matching forecasts with appropriate actions compiled into Standard Operating Procedures (SOPs). In the Uganda pilot, the SOPs focused on three areas that reduce the impact of floods; enhancing water purification and storage to minimize diarrheal infections, encouraging food storage to minimize post-harvest losses, and digging drainage channels (trenches) to reduce damage to houses and gardens. There were two activations in November 2015 and April 2016 that provided an opportunity to experience a realized forecast and a false alarm. An evaluation and community consultation conducted later on generated lessons that can inform subsequent programming. Uganda Red Cross’ experience in piloting the Forecast-Based Finance approach shows that the approach has great potential to enhance climate change adaptation by strengthening early warning systems and disaster financing in developing countries.

International Conference on Climate Risk Management, inputs for the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change’s Sixth Assessment Report

ABSTRACT In April 2017, over 70 scientists, policymakers and practitioners from 32 countries convened at the International Conference on Climate Risk Management in Nairobi, Kenya. This conference utilized innovative approaches to facilitate a process of constructive, critical reflection of the existing climate risk management knowledge base, as well as its relevance to decision-maker needs and views of the most vulnerable people. The conference articulated recommendations to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in the development of their Sixth Assessment Report (AR6) – in support of the Chair’s vision for AR6 to have a strong focus on solutions. This report highlights key recommendations distilled from these discussions in areas such as risk-framing approaches and risk metrics. The meeting also suggested that the next IPCC assessment could be strengthened by stronger interaction with practitioners and policymakers working at the forefront of implementing global climate and development agreements, especially in the most vulnerable contexts, and identified associated research priorities.

Temperature and heat in informal settlements in Nairobi.

Nairobi, Kenya exhibits a wide variety of micro-climates and heterogeneous surfaces. Paved roads and high-rise buildings interspersed with low vegetation typify the central business district, while large neighborhoods of informal settlements or “slums” are characterized by dense, tin housing, little vegetation, and limited access to public utilities and services. To investigate how heat varies within Nairobi, we deployed a high density observation network in 2015/2016 to examine summertime temperature and humidity. We show how temperature, humidity and heat index differ in several informal settlements, including in Kibera, the largest slum neighborhood in Africa, and find that temperature and a thermal comfort index known colloquially as the heat index regularly exceed measurements at the Dagoretti observation station by several degrees Celsius. These temperatures are within the range of temperatures previously associated with mortality increases of several percent in youth and elderly populations in informal settlements. We relate these changes to surface properties such as satellite-derived albedo, vegetation indices, and elevation.