Erlend W. Nier

Financial Stability Frameworks and the Role of Central Banks: Lessons from the Crisis

This paper sets out general principles for the design of financial stability frameworks, starting from an analysis of the objectives and tools of financial regulation. The paper then offers a comprehensive analysis of the costs and benefits of the two main models that have emerged for modern financial systems: the integrated model, with a single supervisor outside of the central bank, and the twin-peaks model, with a systemic risk regulator (central bank) on the one hand and a conduct of business regulator on the other. The paper concludes that the twin-peaks model may become more attractive when regulatory structures are geared more explicitly towards the mitigation of systemic risk-including through the introduction of new macroprudential tools that could be used alongside monetary policy to contain macro-systemic risks; through enhanced regulation and special resolution regimes for systemically important institutions; and a more holistic approach to the oversight of clearing and settlement systems. Since the optimal solution may well be path-dependent and specific to the development of financial markets in any given country, a number of hybrid models are also discussed.

What Caused the Global Financial Crisis; Evidenceon the Drivers of Financial Imbalances 1999: 2007

This paper investigates empirically the drivers of financial imbalances ahead of the global financial crisis. Three factors may have contributed to the build-up of financial imbalances: (i) rising global imbalances (capital flows), (ii) monetary policy that might have been too loose, (iii) inadequate supervision and regulation. Panel data regressions are performed for OECD countries from 1999 to 2007, so as to shed light on the relative importance of these factors, as well as the extent to which these factors might have interacted in fuelling the build-up. We find that the build-up of financial imbalances was driven by capital inflows and an associated compression of the spread between long and short rates. The effect of capital inflows on the build-up is amplified where the supervisory and regulatory environment was relatively weak. We find that, by contrast, differences in monetary policy cannot account for differences across countries in the build-up of financial imbalances ahead of the crisis.

Towards Effective Macroprudential Policy Frameworks: An Assessment of Stylized Institutional Models

A number of countries are reviewing their institutional arrangements for financial stability to support the development of a macroprudential policy function. In some cases, this involves a rethink of the appropriate institutional boundaries between central banks and financial regulatory agencies, or the setting up of dedicated policymaking committees. In others, efforts are underway to enhance cooperation within the existing institutional structure. Against this background, this paper provides basic guidance for the design of effective arrangements, in a manner that can provide a framework for country-specific advice. After reviewing briefly the main institutional elements of existing and emerging macroprudential policy frameworks across countries, the paper identifies stylized institutional models based on key features that distinguish institutional arrangements. It develops criteria to assess the effectiveness of models, examines the strengths and weaknesses of models against these criteria, and explores ways to improve existing setups. The paper finally distills lessons and sets out desired principles for effective macroprudential policy arrangements.

The Need for Special Resolution Regimes for Financial Institutions—The Case of the European Union

The global financial crisis has demonstrated weaknesses in resolution regimes for financial institutions around the globe, including in the European Union (EU). This paper considers the principles underlying resolution regimes for financial institutions, and draws out how a well-designed resolution regime can expand the toolset available for crisis management. Introducing, or in some cases expanding the scope, of these regimes is pressing to achieve more effective responses to ongoing financial sector weaknesses across the EU.

Bank Losses, Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - Evidence on the Interplay from Panel Data

We assess the extent to which loan losses affect banks’ provision of credit to companies and households and examine how feedback from losses to a reduction in credit is affected by the monetary policy stance. Using a unique cross-country dataset of more than 600 banks from 32 countries, we find that losses lead to a reduction in credit and that this effect is more pronounced when either initial bank capitalization is thin or when monetary policy is tight. Moreover, in the face of credit losses, ample capital is more important in cushioning the effect of loan losses when monetary policy is tight. In other words, capital buffers and accommodating monetary policy act as substitutes in offsetting the adverse effect of losses on loan growth. While most of these effects are stronger in crisis times, we find them to operate both in and outside full-blown banking crises. These findings have important implications for the interplay between financial stability and monetary policy, which this paper also draws out.

Gross Private Capital Flows to Emerging Markets; Can the Global Financial Cycle Be Tamed?

This paper assesses empirically the key drivers of private capital flows to a large sample of emerging market economies in the last decade. It analyzes the effect of the global financial cycle, measured by the VIX, on capital flows and investigates the role of fundamentals and country characteristics in mitigating or amplifying its effect. Using interaction models, we find the effect of the VIX to be non-linear. For low levels of the VIX, capital flows are driven by fundamental factors. During periods of stress, the VIX becomes the dominant driver of capital flows while other determinants, with the exception of interest rate differentials, lose statistical significance. Our results also suggest that the effect of global financial conditions on gross private capital flows increases with the host country’s level of financial sector development. Finally, our results imply that countries cannot fully insulate themselves from global financial shocks, unless creating a fragmented global financial system.

Switching Costs in the Market for Personal Current Accounts: Some Evidence for the United Kingdom

This paper provides an analysis of the competitive process in the market for personal current accounts in the United Kingdom. Using survey data, we first describe some stylised developments in this market over our sample period (1996-2001). We find a gradual change in the distribution of market shares over time. This contrasts with a marked dispersion in price, which appears to persist through time. Analysing the evolution of market shares, we address two key questions: (i) are bank market shares responding to price differentials?; (ii) if not, which type of imperfect competition best fits the data? Our conclusions point to the existence of customer switching costs as a key determinant of the nature of competition in the market for personal current accounts. The results of this study are therefore broadly supportive of a number of recent initiatives to facilitate switching bank accounts in the United Kingdom.