Patrick A. Imam

Islamic Banking: How Has it Diffused?

This paper investigates the determinants of the pattern of Islamic bank diffusion around the world using country-level data for 1992 - 2006. The analysis illustrates that income per capita, share of Muslims in the population and status as an oil producer are linked to the development of Islamic banking, as are economic integration with Middle Eastern countries and proximity to Islamic financial centers. Interest rates have a negative impact on Islamic banking, reflecting the implicit benchmark for Islamic banks. The quality of institutions does not matter, probably because the often higher hurdle set by Shariah law trumps the quality of local institutions in most countries. The 9/11 attacks were not important to the diffusion of Islamic banking; but they coincided with rising oil prices, which are a significant factor in the diffusion of Islamic banking. Islamic banks also appear to be complements to, rather than substitutes for, conventional banks.

Effect of Corruption on Tax Revenues in the Middle East

Abstract This study estimates the impact of corruption on the revenue-generating capacity of different tax categories in the Middle East. This is done over a period preceding the Global Crisis and the Arab Spring, to avoid any biases brought about by these two far reaching events. We find that the low revenue collection as a share of GDP in the Middle East, compared to other middle-income regions is due in part to corruption, with certain taxes more affected than others. Taxes that require frequent interaction between the tax authority and individuals, such as taxes on international trade, seem to be more affected by corruption than most other types of taxation. This suggests that once political stability returns to the region, if governments need to raise more tax revenues in a way that minimizes distortions and maximizes social welfare, they should implement reforms that either reduce corruption or raise revenues from tax categories that are less susceptible to corruption. Possible reforms of the revenue system and administration are examined.

Terms of Trade Shocks and Economic Recovery

This paper identifies factors that contribute to a fast recovery in growth after persistent negative terms of trade shocks, using a sample of 159 countries for 1970-2006. The results suggest that policies matter. Fast recoveries are fairly robustly related to real exchange rate depreciation and improvements in government stability and the institutional environment. A timely increase in aid may also support recovery.

The Equilibrium Exchange Rate of Mauritius: Evidence from Two Structural Models

In this paper we assess the equilibrium value of the Mauritian rupee in 2006-7 and over the medium run using two structural models. First, we derive a current account-based measure of the exchange rate equilibrium using the macroeconomic balance approach. Second, we estimate a reduced-form fundamental equilibrium exchange rate measure. Our results, which are robust to an alternative non-econometric approach, suggest that the Mauritian rupee was aligned with its equilibrium value in 2006-7 and little adjustment appeared necessary over the medium run.

Macroprudential Policies for a Resource Rich Economy the Case of Mongolia

This paper explores the extent to which macroprudential tools can be used to manage banking sector risks in Mongolia, a commodity producing country exposed to both procyclical and cross-sectional financial sector risks. Loose fiscal policy, rising credit activity, and heightened risk appetite attributable to the commodity boom are fuelling price volatility in asset markets, posing significant risks to financial stability if left unchecked. Rising interconnectedness, potential increase in dollarization and concentrated exposures are compounding those risks. Macroprudential tools can complement fiscal and monetary policy adjustments to avoid the buildup of vulnerabilities in the banking sector.

Dollarization in Sub-Saharan Africa : Experiences and Lessons

Dollarization—the use of foreign currencies as a medium of exchange, store of value, or unit of account—is a notable feature of financial development under macroeconomically fragile conditions. It has emerged as a key factor explaining vulnerabilities and currency crises, which have long been observed in Latin America, parts of Asia, and Eastern Europe. Dollarization is also present, prominently, in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) where it remains significant and persistent at over 30 percent rates for both bank loans and deposits—although it has not increased significantly since 2001. However, progress in reducing dollarization has lagged behind other regions and, in this regard, it is legitimate to ask whether this phenomenon is an important concern in SSA. This study fills a gap in the literature by analyzing these issues with specific reference to the SSA region on the basis of the evidence for the past decade.

Introducing the Euro as Legal Tender - Benefits and Costs of Eurorization for Cape Verde

In recent years, recommendations for countries to unilaterally dollarize/eurorize have become common, particularly when the countries lack economic credibility. After exploring the characteristics of dollarizing/eurorizing economies, we look at the merits and costs of unilateral eurorization for Cape Verde, a highly tourism based economy that has become increasingly integrated into the euro-zone area and that has a strong macroeconomic track record. We illustrate that neither the benefits nor the costs of unilateral eurorization are large and conclude that there is no compelling case to change the current exchange rate arrangement at this point in time. Econometrically, we assess the characteristics of dollarized economies and demonstrate that few of them apply to Cape Verde, further confirming that Cape Verde does not fit the pattern of most dollarizing countries.

Consequences of Asset Shortages in Emerging Markets

We assess econometrically the impact of asset shortages on economic growth, asset bubbles, the probability of a crisis, and the current account for a group of 41 emerging markets (EMs) for 1995–2008. The econometric estimations confirm that asset shortages pose a serious danger to EMs in terms of reducing economic growth, raising the probability of a crisis, and leading to asset price bubbles. Moreover, asset shortages can also explain the current account positions of EMs. The findings suggest that the consequences of asset shortages for macroeconomic stability are significant, and must be tackled urgently. We conclude with policy implications.

Balance Sheet Vulnerabilities of Mauritius During a Decade of Shocks

After reviewing the economic reform strategy of Mauritius for the past 10 years in the face of several external shocks, we apply a balance sheet analysis (BSA) focusing on currency, maturity, and intersectoral mismatches. In reviewing developments over this decade, we find that the currency and maturity mismatches have fallen across various sectors, and the intersectoral risks to each analyzed sector’s balance sheet appear controllable. The government has implemented reforms in recent years that have contributed to general improvement in the balance sheet of the Mauritian economy and its subsectors. We conclude that from a BSA perspective, the macroeconomic vulnerabilities of Mauritius seem manageable, though vulnerabilities remain, and data gaps mean that more work will be needed to support these findings.

Does a Regional Trade Agreement Lessen or Worsen Growth Volatility? An Empirical Investigation

This paper assesses how regional trade agreements (RTAs) impact growth volatility on a worldwide sample of 170 countries with data spanning the period 1978-2012. Notwithstanding concerns that trade openness through RTAs can heighten exposure to shocks, in particular when it leads to increased product specialization, RTAs through enhanced policy credibility, improved policy coordination, and reduced risk of conflicts can ease growth volatility. Empirical estimations suggest the benefits outweigh the costs as RTAs are consistently associated with lower growth volatility, after controlling for trade openness and other determinants of growth volatility. Furthermore, regression results also suggest that countries that are more prone to shocks are more likely to join a RTA, in particular with countries with relatively less volatile growth, additionally enhancing the stabilization effect.