Ernesto Crivelli

Foreign Aid and Revenue: Still a Crowding Out Effect?

This paper reexamines the relationship between aid and domestic tax revenues using a more recent and comprehensive dataset covering 118 countries for the period 1980 - 2009. Overall, our results support earlier findings of a negative association between net Official Development Assistance (ODA) and domestic tax revenues, but this relationship appears to have weakened in reflection of greater efforts at mobilizing domestic revenues in many countries. The composition of net ODA matters: ODA grants are associated with lower revenues, while ODA loans are not. The paper further finds that net ODA and grants are negatively associated with VAT, excise and income tax revenues, but have a positive relationship with trade taxes. Aid has a particularly strong negative effect on domestic tax revenues in low-income countries and in countries with relatively weak institutions.

Can Policies Affect Employment Intensity of Growth? A Cross-Country Analysis

The aim of this paper is to provide new estimates of employment-output elasticities and assess the effect of structural and macroeocnomic policies on the employment-intensity of growth. Using an unbalanced panel of 167 countries over the period 1991-2009, the results suggest that structural policies aimed at increasing labor and product market flexibility and reducing government size have a significant and positive impact on employment elasticities. In addition, the results also suggest that in order to maximize the positive impact on the responsiveness of employment to economic activity, structural policies have to be complemented with macroeconomic policies aimed at increasing macroeconomic stability.

Subnational Health Spending and Soft Budget Constraints in OECD Countries

Government spending on health has grown as a percent of GDP over the last 40 years in industrialized countries. Widespread decentralization of healthcare systems has often accompanied this increase in spending. In this paper, we explore the effect of soft budget constraints on subnational health spending in a sample of OECD countries. We find countries where subnational governments rely primarily on central government financing and enjoy large borrowing autonomy have higher healthcare spending than those with more restrictions on subnational government borrowing.

Base Erosion, Profit Shifting and Developing Countries

International corporate tax issues are prominent in public debate, notably with the G20-OECD project addressing Base Erosion and Profit Shifting (‘BEPS’). But while there is considerable empirical evidence for advanced countries on the cross-country fiscal externalities at the heart of these issues, there is almost none for developing countries. This paper uses panel data for 173 countries over 33 years to explore their magnitude and nature, focusing particularly on developing countries and applying a new method to distinguish between spillover effects through real decisions and through avoidance —and quantify the revenue impact of the latter. The results suggest that spillover effects on the tax base are if anything a greater concern for developing countries than for advanced—and a significant one.

Local governments’ fiscal balance and privatization in transition countries

Several transition economies have undertaken fiscal decentralization reforms over the past two decades along with liberalization, privatization and stabilization reforms. Theory predicts that decentralization may aggravate fiscal imbalances, unless the right incentives are in place to promote fiscal discipline. This study uses a panel of 20 transition countries over 19 years to address a central question of fact: Did privatization help to promote local governments’ fiscal discipline? The answer is clearly ‘no’ for privatization considered in isolation. However, privatization and subnational fiscal autonomy along with reforms to the banking system – restraining access to soft financing – may prove effective at improving fiscal balances among local governments.

Local Governments' Fiscal Balance, Privatization, and Banking Sector Reform in Transition Countries

Several transition economies have undertaken fiscal decentralization reforms over the past two decades along with liberalization, privatization, and stabilization reforms. Theory predicts that decentralization may aggravate fiscal imbalances, unless the right incentives are in place to promote fiscal discipline. This paper uses a panel of 20 transition countries over 19 years to address a central question of fact: Did privatization help to promote local governments’ fiscal discipline? The answer is clearly ‘no’ for privatization considered in isolation. However, privatization and subnational fiscal autonomy along with reforms to the banking system - restraining access to soft financing - may prove effective at improving fiscal balances among local governments.

Does Conditionality Mitigate the Potential Negative Effect of Aid on Revenues

Abstract This paper assesses whether conditionality in IMF-supported programmes has helped offset the potential negative effect of foreign aid on tax revenues. The analysis – carried out on panel data covering 1993-2012 for 111 low- and middle-income countries – shows that growing use of revenue conditionality by low-income countries partially offsets the depressing effect of foreign grants on tax revenue, particularly on taxes on goods and services. The impact of conditionality is strong in countries where aid dependence is high and where institutions are strong, suggesting that revenue conditionality cannot substitute for weak institutions in mitigating any negative effect of aid on tax revenue collection.

IMF conditionality supports revenue collection: is it just tax rates?

ABSTRACT This article examines if the observed favourable impact of conditionality in IMF programmes on revenue performance arises from changes in tax rates. It does so by studying the experience of 126 low- and middle-income countries during 1993–2013. When changes in tax rates are controlled for, the impact of revenue conditionality (and especially conditionality on revenue administration reform) not only remains strong on value-added tax collection but also, in contrast to earlier results, it contributes to significant improvements in income tax collection.

Fragmented Politics and Public Debt

In this paper, we study the impact of fragmented politics on public debt—in particular, between two consecutive legislative elections. Using data for 92 advanced and developing countries during 1975-2015, we find a positive association between political fragmentation and public debt changes. Corruption magnifies the effects; with higher perceived corruption, political fragmentation has a bigger sway on debt increases. The influence of political fragmentation on debt dynamics is somewhat asymmetric, with larger and more significant effects during periods of debt reduction. Establishment of fiscal councils helps attenuate the negative impact of political fragmentation on public debt dynamics.