Ersin Kalaycıoğlu

The rising tide of conservatism in Turkey

Going Back to the Future Shock, Awe and Suspense Change, Reform and Fear Modernization and Its Enemies Attitudes Toward Uncertainty Explaining the Character of Turkish Conservatism Political Consequences of Conservatism Turkey and Foreign Relations (EU - US) Conclusion

Attitudinal Orientation to Party Organizations in Turkey in the 2000s

Abstract The Turkish party system experienced a serious blow in the early 1980s, when the military government in power closed down all the former legal political parties. Therefore, little evidence of strong psychological ties between voters and the political parties they supported at the polls is expected. This essay draws upon existing literature on voting behavior to develop four hypotheses to explain partisan affiliations of Turkish voters. Each of the hypotheses is then put to empirical tests, using data collected by means of a nationally representative survey. The four independent variables used in the four hypotheses are the role of parents’ party identification (socialization), ideological orientations, economic expectations, and the ethnic identities of voters. Socialization emerges as a major determinant of partisan affiliation with the relatively older Republican People’s Party (CHP) and Nationalist Action Party (MHP), while identifiers with the governing Justice and Development Party (AKP) take few cues from their parents and pay more attention to the economic performance of that party in government. Ideology seems to play a major role in determining the psychological orientations of those who feel attached to the CHP versus the AKP or the MHP but little role in differentiating AKP from MHP voters. Ethnicity only plays a role in partisan affiliation with the MHP.

Kulturkampf in Turkey: The Constitutional Referendum of 12 September 2010

The referendum of 12 September 2010 saw the resurfacing of the main cultural cleavages in Turkish society, resulting in a major kulturkampf between the more socio-cultural liberal and secular coastal provinces and the more religious conservative hinterland. The AKP and some Islamist and Turkish nationalist fringe parties supported the ‘yea’ vote, the rest of the political parties supported ‘nay’, and the Kurdish nationalists boycotted the referendum. Individual-level statistical analysis of the vote indicates that partisanship, ideological splits, economic satisfaction and religiosity played a major role in influencing vote choices. A highly divided society, producing a 60–40 divide across a host of political issues, seemed to have emerged, helping the governing AKP get its way through heightened conflict.

Justice and Development Party at the Helm: Resurgence of Islam or Restitution of the Right‐of‐Center Predominant Party?

Abstract The Justice and Development Party (AKP), which had been in government since 2002, increased its votes dramatically in the 2007 national elections. It was a first since the 1954 and 1977 elections in Turkey. With immaculate Islamist credentials, had those who voted for the AKP actually voted for political Islam in 2007? Or, were there some other factors at play? This study examines the determinants of party preferences of Turkish voters in 2007. The nationally representative pre‐election survey of 2007 is used in the statistical analysis, which reveals that partisan affiliations followed by the voter satisfaction with the performance of the economy played the biggest role in determining the voter preferences in Turkey in the 2007 elections.

Turkish Democracy: Patronage versus Governance

Despite Turkey’s long record of electoral democracy, its system has failed to provide the expected continuity and stability. This article examines the factors behind shortcomings in Turkish democracy. It includes a consideration of public attitudes, party organization, political participation, the rule of law, patronage, and protest. The goal is to provide a coherent and balanced picture of both weaknesses in the Turkish political system and reasons to hope for future improvements.

The Turkish–EU Odyssey and Political Regime Change in Turkey

Turkish–EU relations have occupied the Turkish political agenda since 1959. However, it was only after the Cold War that relations gained momentum and began to have a deep running impact on Turkish socio-political developments. One such area of impact has been the political regime of Turkey. In an effort to accommodate the standards of Turkish democracy with the Copenhagen Criteria, Turkish governments have initiated several constitutional amendments. This paper analyses the context and the nature of constitutional amendments made in the last three decades, and examines the role that EU–Turkish relations played in the modification of the Turkish political regime.

Turkish Popular Presidential Elections: Deepening Legitimacy Issues and Looming Regime Change

This paper examines the politics of presidential elections in Turkey with particular reference to the 10 August 2014 presidential elections. It starts by scrutinising the change in the presidential election system from parliamentary to direct popular vote. It then probes the implementation of the new election rules, candidate selection, and the conduct of the campaign, followed by analysis of the election results and their influence on the Turkish record of democratisation. The paper concludes that the move to a partisan president elected by popular vote entails democratic dangers if the new incumbent does not abide by his or her constitutional role and attempts to intervene in government policy.

Turkish party system: leaders, vote and institutionalization

Research indicated that partisan affiliation, ideological and economic factors are the main determinants of the voters’ party preferences at Turkish elections. However, as Turkish political parties have been non-institutionalized structures, the role played by their political leaders seems to be larger than life. This paper seeks to assess the relative impact of the party leaders on the voters’ party preferences vis-à-vis ideology, partisan identity and economic satisfaction through empirical analyses with binary logistic regression. The data for the study were compiled as nationally representative surveys of the Turkish voters in June–July 2007 and May–June 2011.

The conundrum of coalition politics in Turkey

ABSTRACT Turkey has had a long track record of coalition governments, yet when the June 7, 2015 general elections produced a hung parliament attempts at establishing a new coalition government failed. Why was this so? This paper argues that the non-compromising attitude of the AKP and the MHP, on the one hand, and, on the other hand, the recalcitrance of the President, who perceived any government he had no firm control over as a threat to his political career, undermined any effort at establishing a coalition government. The terror campaign of the PKK and efforts by the AKP and the MHP to demonize the HDP as the party of terror also undermined the chances of the CHP to form a coalition that included the HDP. Hence, Turkeys chances of establishing a democratic government through compromise failed and the country went back to polarizing politics of competitive authoritarianism under the hegemony of the one-party government of the AKP.

Two elections and a political regime in crisis: Turkish politics at the crossroads

Abstract Turkey had its fourth National Assembly elections on 7 June 2015 in the twenty-first century and this time they resulted in a hung parliament. The efforts at establishing a coalition government failed and the country moved to a snap, ‘repeat’ election on 1 November 2015. This paper focuses on how the voters registered their party preferences almost 5 months apart in the same legislative general elections and why. Using the same sample and interviewing those who lived at the same addresses as those in the ISSP Citizenship survey conducted February to April 2015 and again in October 2015, a panel data-set was constructed. A theoretical framework for voting behaviour that uses party identification, political ideology, ethnic, religious, social class identities and perceptions of the performance of the economy of the respondents to understand what factors help to influence the party preferences of the same respondents 5 months apart. A multivariate (binary logistic regression) analysis of the pre-June and October 2015 data sets revealed that economic voting had been the predominant factor in the June elections, but security concerns also interacted with popular economic evaluations in the November 2015 elections to reinstall the AKP to power.