Ali Çarkoğlu

The rising tide of conservatism in Turkey

Going Back to the Future Shock, Awe and Suspense Change, Reform and Fear Modernization and Its Enemies Attitudes Toward Uncertainty Explaining the Character of Turkish Conservatism Political Consequences of Conservatism Turkey and Foreign Relations (EU - US) Conclusion

Ideology or Economic Pragmatism?: Profiling Turkish Voters in 2007

Abstract The July 2007 general elections took place in an atmosphere of polarization around debates concerning the changing nature of the Turkish political regime. The election victory for the incumbent Justice and Development Party (AKP) seemed to depend on two competing sources of influence upon voters in their choice for political parties. One was primarily long‐term ideological orientations built on left–right self‐placement, religiosity, and conservatism. The other was relatively short‐term evaluations of government performance, especially on the economic front. This essay evaluates these two branches of influence upon voters’ choice, using survey data collected before and after the July election.

The Nature of Left–Right Ideological Self‐placement in the Turkish Context

This essay examines the nature of the left–right dimension in the Turkish context. Using a nationwide representative survey conducted in 2006, the author estimates an ordered logit model to analyze the determinants of self‐placements on a conventional one‐to‐ten left–right scale. The analysis reveals first that the scale does not reflect a fine‐tuned grading along the ten‐point scale but rather creates ordered categories of “left,” “center,” and “right.” Given this constraint, the issue content persistently reflects the expected impacts of issues and demographic variables upon self‐placements. Lastly, the author underlines the importance of religiosity and qualifies its impact upon ideological self‐placements.

Political Preferences of the Turkish Electorate: Reflections of an Alevi–Sunni Cleavage

Abstract This essay aims to develop an index of Alevi orientations for the Turkish electorate based on data collected in a post‐November 2002 election survey during January–February 2003, conducted with a nationwide representative sample of voters. Series of validity checks yield encouraging results and show that Alevi versus Sunni/Hanefi piousness indicators and their attitudinal reflections are very much in contrast to one another. On the political scene, the secular versus pro‐Islamist party divide is also linked to the observed Alevi–Sunni divide. The essay concludes by underlining the remaining challenges in measuring the sectarian differences in the context of Turkey and evaluating the implications of the empirical observations concerning the sectarian divide in Turkish politics.

A New Electoral Victory for the ‘Pro-Islamists’ or the ‘New Centre-Right’? The Justice and Development Party Phenomenon in the July 2007 Parliamentary Elections in Turkey

The July 2007 elections took place in an atmosphere of polarization, with the central issue the nature of the Turkish political regime. The elections are contextualized within a long- as well as a short-term perspective, showing how the secularist–Islamist confrontation reflected a new version of a centre–periphery cleavage going back to the Ottoman empire. After a discussion of the aborted presidential election of May 2007, the results of the parliamentary elections are presented. The direct representation of Kurdish identity politics in Parliament for the first time may have significant implications for democratic consolidation. The article concludes by asking whether the Adalet ve Kalkınma Partisi (AKP) has become the new centre in Turkish politics and whether Turkey is moving towards a dominant party system.

The March 2009 Local Elections in Turkey: A Signal for Takers or the Inevitable Beginning of the End for AKP?

The article offers a descriptive geographic account of the March 2009 local elections in Turkey. Cluster analysis is employed to investigate the results and changing voting patterns compared with the 2004 local government elections. AKP has stalled but remains the dominant party in the system. The electoral map indicates three main regions: the coastal western and most developed provinces where the opposition is strong, the east and southeastern provinces with rising Kurdish ethnic electoral support, and the more conservative provinces in between where the governing AKP remains dominant with the nationalist MHP trailing behind. Economic developments and the potential reshaping of ethnic Kurdish support will shape the next general election outcome.

The geography of the April 1999 Turkish elections

This article focuses on the geographical distribution of electoral support across Turkish provinces in the April 1999 elections. Provincial election returns are divided into seven clusters and analyzed. Party system characteristics as well as socioeconomic development levels exhibit striking differences across clusters. The least developed eastern and southeastern provinces, where Kurdish separatist activities have been most effective, show a high degree of fractionalization and sizeable electoral volatility. Central Anatolian provinces that once heavily voted for Islamists shifted toward the ultra‐nationalists. The fact that all provinces other than the most developed western group predominantly support either anti‐systemic or ultra‐nationalist parties, is posited as the central puzzle of Turkish electoral politics

Press-party parallelism in Turkey: an individual level interpretation

Abstract This article aims to measure the level of partisanship for readers of major newspapers in Turkey. In so doing partisan alignments of those newspapers as reflected in the party preferences of their readers are diagnosed. Alternatively, different levels of pluralism as reflective of newspaper outlets within different party supporters are also depicted. Using micro‐individual level survey data it is shown that while internal pluralism within newspaper readership communities is declining, the external pluralism is on the rise. Decreasing internal pluralism indicates increasing bias in individual media outlets towards particular political parties.

The Turkish cypriot general elections of December 2003: Setting the stage for resolving the Cyprus conflict?

This article provides an evaluation of the December 2003 general elections in the Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus (TRNC). After a brief review of the electoral history of TRNC, its electoral and party systems, the article discusses election issues and how different parties used them. Election results are presented from a macro-geographical perspective. The influence of international actors on the election is assessed, followed by an evaluation of future prospects.

Economic development, environmental justice, and pro-environmental behavior

Are a country’s environmental attitudes linked to its level of economic development? In recent decades, rapid industrialization and the use of cheaper but older production technologies have reduced environmental quality in less developed countries (LDCs). Moreover, these countries have been disproportionally affected by global pollution in that they suffer the effects while having emitted less than industrialized countries. To what extent are people in LDCs ready to make sacrifices to improve environmental conditions? International Social Survey Program 2010 data reveal that people in LDCs are less supportive of international agreements forcing their country to take necessary environmental measures than are citizens in the developed world. Moreover, they are more likely to think that wealthier countries should make more effort to protect the environment, and are less willing to make personal economic sacrifices or change their consumption behavior to accommodate environmental concerns. These results hold even after controlling for post-materialist values, political ideology, personal income, and several other demographic variables.