Espen Bratberg

Intergenerational Earnings Mobility in Norway: Levels and Trends

Using longitudinal data for Norwegian children born in 1950, 1955, 1960 and 1965, we find a relatively high degree of earnings mobility. There is no tendency toward decreasing mobility over the cohorts. Conditioning on the position in the earnings distribution, the analysis indicates quite high mobility in the middle of the distribution and somewhat more persistence at the top and bottom. This approach also reveals increased mobility over time for sons, but a less clear picture for daughters.

Trends in Intergenerational Mobility across Offspring's Earnings Distribution in Norway

Using register data for Norwegian cohorts born in 1950, 1955, and 1960, we found intergenerational earnings mobility to be high, and lower at the lower end of offsprings earnings distribution than at the upper end. The findings also indicate that mobility has increased over time and that the increase is somewhat higher for lower earnings. The increase in earnings mobility over time is larger for women than for men.

Sickness absence with psychiatric diagnoses: individual and contextual predictors of permanent disability.

Sickness absence due to psychiatric problems is on the increase. Many sickness absentees do not recover and end up on a permanent disability pension (DP). A prospective cohort study of 12,283 women and 7099 men with a spell of sickness absence longer than 8 weeks, certified with a psychiatric diagnosis, was carried out. Diagnoses and socioeconomic data for each case were obtained from a national insurance research database. Socio-demographic data characterising each of Norways 19 counties were obtained from Statistics Norway, and a deprivation index was constructed. Cox regression models with county-level variables only and combinations of variables at individual and county level were estimated separately for each gender as predictors of DP. Men had the highest risk of disability. Several individual-level variables predicted permanent disability. Contextual factors had a marginal effect among women also, after adjustment for individual-level variables. No such effect was present among the men.

Musculoskeletal Impairments in the Norwegian Working Population: The Prognostic Role of Diagnoses and Socioeconomic Status: A Prospective Study of Sickness Absence and Transition to Disability Pension

Study Design. Population-based, 5-year prospective cohort study. Objective. To assess the incidence of musculoskeletal disorders (MSDs) in sickness absence longer than 8 weeks in Norway, and to identify diagnostic and socioeconomic predictors of the transition to disability pension (DP). Summary of Background Data. MSDs are prevalent and of major concern for sickness absence. Previous epidemiological studies are largely cross-sectional and based on self-reports, often with low response rates, selection, and reporting bias. Prospective studies with physician-verified diagnoses might be a better approach. Methods. Thirty-seven thousand nine hundred forty-two females and 26,307 males with an episode of sickness absence >8 weeks in 1997, certified with a MSD were followed up for 5 years. Diagnostic and sociodemographic data were obtained from a national database. Cases were divided into 9 diagnostic subgroups, based on the International Classification of Primary Health Care. Survival analysis was performed with granting of DP as the endpoint, in the full sample and for diagnostic subgroups. Results. Over all 20% of cases obtained DP during follow-up. Among those aged 50 to 62 and among those with only basic education 46% obtained DP. DP rates were highest for osteoarthrosis (47%), rheumatoid arthritis (46%), and myalgia/fibromyalgia (38%). Fractures/injuries had the lowest rate. Controlled for age, education and income, relative risk of DP was 1.5 (95% CI: 1.4–1.6) for upper limb problems, 2.0 (95% CI: 1.8–2.1) for back problems, 2.8 (95% CI: 2.5–3.1) for osteoarthrosis, 3.3 (95% CI: 3.0–3.6) for myalgia/fibromyalgia, and 4.2 (95% CI: 3.9–4.7) for rheumatoid arthritis, compared to “fractures and injuries.” Conclusion. Age, diagnoses, and socioeconomic variables were important predictors of an adverse outcome among workers with a sickness absence of 8 or more weeks. Further research is needed to determine whether differentiated follow-up strategies might prevent permanent disability.

Is Recipiency of Disability Pension Hereditary

This paper addresses whether children’s exposure to parents receiving disability benefits induces a higher probability of receiving such benefits themselves. Most OECD countries experience an increasing proportion of the working-age population receiving permanent disability benefits. Using data from Norway, a country where around 10% of the working-age population rely on disability benefits, we find that the amount of time that children are exposed to their fathers receiving disability benefits affects their own likelihood of receiving benefits positively. This finding is robust to a range of different specifications, including family fixed effects.

A Comparison of Intergenerational Mobility Curves in Germany, Norway, Sweden, and the US†

We use two non-parametric measures to characterize intergenerational mobility (IGM) throughout the income distribution: Rank Mobility and Income Share Mobility. We examine differences in these IGM curves between Germany, Norway, Sweden and the United States using comparable samples. Although we find that these curves are approximately linear through most of the income distribution, non-linearities are important in describing cross-country differences. The linear representations of these curves lead to different conclusions regarding cross-country differences depending on the measure. Using ranks, we find that the U.S. is substantially less intergenerationally mobile than the three European countries which have fairly similar degrees of rank mobility. Despite the substantial heterogeneity in intergenerational rank mobility within the U.S., we show that the most mobile region of the U.S. is still less mobile than the least mobile regions of Norway and Sweden. When we use a linear estimator of Income Share Mobility we find that the four countries have very similar rates of IGM. However, there are some notable cross-country differences at the bottom and the top of the income distribution for both types of mobility. For example, the U.S. tends to experience lower upward mobility at the very bottom of the income distribution according to both measures. We conclude that researchers should be careful in drawing conclusions regarding cross-country differences in intergenerational mobility given that the results may be sensitive to the concept being used and to non-linearities.

Has Job Stability Decreased? Population Data from a Small Open Economy

We use a population-based employer–employee dataset to analyze changes in job stability in Norway. We first present descriptive analyses of tenure and separation rates, followed by regression-adjusted measures controlling for changes in demographics and the business cycle. We see only weak evidence of changes in the tenure rates. In particular, for the public sector we find a slight increase in short tenures and a decrease in tenures above eight years. However, we do not find that this tendency towards less stable jobs leads to an increase in the flow to unemployment or out of the labor force.

Technological Diffusion Through Profit Seeking And Epidemic Information Processes

Explanations of technological diffusion focus on information being spread by epidemic processes, on profit heterogeneity, or oligopolistic competition. The model in this paper integrates the epidemic and the heterogeneity-based approaches. Predictions are tested on Norwegian data concerning the diffusion of laboratory equipment in primary health care. The empirical analysis shows that both diffusion of information, and profitability considerations, are significant factors in explaining technological diffusion. The integrated model performs significantly better than any submodel. Our analysis also gives indications of the impact of public reimbursement policies on physician behavior.