Tor Helge Holmås

Diffusion of pharmaceuticals: cross-country evidence of anti-TNF drugs

This article studies the diffusion of biopharmaceuticals across European countries, focusing on anti-TNF drugs, which are used to treat autoimmune diseases (e.g., rheumatism, psoriasis). We use detailed sales information on the three brands Remicade, Enbrel and Humira for nine European countries covering the period from the first launch in 2000 until becoming blockbusters in 2009. Descriptive statistics reveal large variations across countries in per-capita consumption and price levels both overall and at the brand level. We explore potential sources for the cross-country consumption differences by estimating several multivariate regression models. Our results show that large parts of the cross-country variation are explained by time-invariant country-specific factors (e.g., disease prevalence, demographics, health care system). We also find that differences in income [gross domestic product (GDP) per capita] and health spending (share of GDP) explain the cross-country variation in consumption, while relative price differences seem to have limited impact.

Regulation, generic competition and pharmaceutical prices: Theory and evidence from a natural experiment

We study the impact of regulatory regimes on generic competition and pharmaceutical pricing using a unique policy experiment in Norway, where reference pricing (RP) replaced price cap regulation in 2003 for a sub-sample of off-patent products. We exploit a detailed panel dataset at product level covering a wide set of off-patent drugs before and after the policy reform. Off-patent drugs not subject to reference pricing serve as our control group. We find that RP leads to lower relative prices, with the effect being driven by strong brand-name price reductions, and not increases in generic prices. We also find that RP increases generic competition, resulting in lower brand-name market shares. Finally, we show that RP has a strong negative effect on average prices at molecule level, suggesting significant cost-savings.

Prioritization and patients' rights: Analysing the effect of a reform in the Norwegian Hospital Sector

The right to equal treatment, irrespective of age, gender, ethnicity, socio-economic status and place of residence, is an important principle for several health care systems. A reform of the Norwegian hospital sector of 2002 may be used as a relevant experiment for investigating whether centralization of ownership and management structures will lead to more equal prioritization practices over geographical regions. One concern was variation in waiting times across the country. The reform was followed up in subsequent years by some other policy initiatives that also aimed at reducing waiting lists. We measure prioritization practice by a method that takes departure in recommended maximum waiting times from medical guidelines. We merge the information from the guidelines with individual patient data on actual waiting times for the period 1999-2005. This way we can monitor whether each patient in the available register of actual hospital visits has waited shorter or longer than what is considered medically acceptable by the guideline. The results indicate no equalization between the five new health regions, but we find evidence of more equal prioritization within four of the health regions. Our method of measuring prioritizations allows us to analyse how prioritization practice evolved over time after the reform, thus covering some further initiatives with the same objective. The results indicate that an observed reduction in waiting times after the reform have favoured patients of lower prioritization status, something we interpret as a general worsening of prioritization practices over time.

Monitoring prioritisation in the public health‐care sector by use of medical guidelines. The case of Norway

This paper presents a new way to monitor priority settings in public health-care systems. We take departure in medical guidelines prescribing acceptable waiting times for different medical descriptions. Allocating ICD10 codes to the medical descriptions, we are able to compare actual waiting times to the recommended maximum waiting times. This way we use the medical guidelines as a tool for monitoring prioritisation in the health sector. In an application, using data from the Norwegian Patient Register, we test statistically for compliance with the guidelines. The results indicate that patients suffering from the most severe conditions are receiving too low priority in the Norwegian health-care sector relative to patients of lower priority.

A low-key social insurance reform—effects of multidisciplinary outpatient treatment for back pain patients in Norway

This paper estimates treatment effects for back pain patients using observational data from a low-key social insurance reform in Norway. Using a latent variable model, we estimate the average treatment effect (ATE), the average effect of treatment on the treated (TT), and the distribution of treatment effects for multidisciplinary outpatient treatment at three different locations. To estimate these treatment effects, we use a discrete-choice model with unobservables generated by a factor structure model. Distance to the nearest hospital (in kilometres) is used as an instrument in estimating the different treatment effects. We find a positive effect of treatment of around 6 percentage points on the probability of leaving the sickness benefits scheme after allowing for selection effects and full heterogeneity in treatment effects. We also find that there are sound arguments for expanding the multidisciplinary outpatient programme for treating back pain patients.

The impact of different prioritisation policies on waiting times: Case studies of Norway and Scotland

We investigate the distributional consequences of two different waiting times initiatives, one in Norway, and one in Scotland. The primary focus of Scotlands recent waiting time reforms, introduced in 2003, and modified in 2005 and 2007, has been on reducing maximum waiting times through the imposition of high profile national targets accompanied by increases in resources. In Norway, the focus of the reform introduced in September 2004, has been on assigning patients referred to hospital a maximum waiting time based on disease severity, the expected benefit and the cost-effectiveness of the treatment. We use large, national administrative datasets from before and after each of these reforms and assign priority groups based on the maximum waiting times stipulated in medical guidelines. The analysis shows that the lowest priority patients benefited most from both reforms. This was at the cost of longer waiting times for patients that should have been given higher priority in Norway, while Scotlands high priority patients remained unaffected.

Between two beds: inappropriately delayed discharges from hospitals

Acknowledging the necessity of a division of labour between hospitals and social care services regarding treatment and care of patients with chronic and complex conditions, is to acknowledge the potential conflict of interests between health care providers. A potentially important conflict is that hospitals prefer comparatively short length of stay (LOS) at hospital, while social care services prefer longer LOS all else equal. Furthermore, inappropriately delayed discharges from hospital, i.e. bed blocking, is costly for society. Our aim is to discuss which factors that may influence bed blocking and to quantify bed blocking costs using individual Norwegian patient data, merged with social care and hospital data. The data allow us to divide hospital LOS into length of appropriate stay (LAS) and length of delay (LOD), the bed blocking period. We find that additional resources allocated to social care services contribute to shorten LOD indicating that social care services may exploit hospital resources as a buffer for insufficient capacity. LAS increases as medical complexity increases indicating hospitals incentives to reduce LOS are softened by considerations related to patients’ medical needs. Bed blocking costs constitute a relatively large share of the total costs of inpatient care.

Prioritization and the elusive effect on welfare – A Norwegian health care reform revisited

The Faster Return to Work (FRW) scheme that Norwegian authorities implemented in 2007 is an example of a policy that builds on the human capital approach. The main idea behind the scheme is that long waiting times for hospital treatment lead to unnecessarily long periods of absence from work. To achieve a reduction in average sickness absence duration, the allocation of FRW funds and new treatment capacity is exclusively aimed at people on sick leave. Many countries have allocated funds to reduce waiting times for hospital treatment and research shows that more resources allocated to the hospital sector can reduce waiting times. Our results support this as the FRW scheme significantly reduces waiting times. However, on average the reduction in waiting times is not transformed into an equally large reduction in the sickness absence period. We find significant difference in the effects of FRW on length of sick leave between surgical and non-surgical patients though. The duration of sick leave for FRW patients undergoing surgical treatment is approximately 14 days shorter than for surgical patients on the regular waiting list. We find no significant effect of the scheme on length of sick leave for non-surgical patients. In sum, our welfare analysis indicates that prioritization of the kind that the FRW scheme represents is not as straightforward as one would expect. The FRW scheme costs more than it contributes in reduced productivity loss. We base our analyses on several different econometric methods using register data on approximately 13,500 individuals over the period 2007-2008.