Esteban Jadresic

Exchange Rate Regimes in an Increasingly Integrated World Economy

This paper examines the consequences of heightened capital mobility and of the integration of developing economies in increasingly globalized markets for the exchange rate regimes of the industrial, developing, and transition economies. It builds upon previous studies by IMF staff on various aspects of the exchange rate arrangements of member countries, consistent with the IMFs role of surveillance over its members exchange rate policies.

Exit Strategies : Policy Options for Countries Seeking Exchange Rate Flexibility

In a world of increasing capital mobility and broadening and more diversified trade, many (but not all) developing and transition economies are likely to find it desirable to move from relatively fixed exchange rate regimes to regimes of greater exchange rate flexibility. This paper suggests why, and considers strategies that countries may consider for such a move. It reinforces this discussion with a review of experience from teh past two decades with alternative exchange rate regimes. The paper also identifies policies that can facilitate the transition to greater exchange rate flexibility for countries that wish to pursue this option.

The Macroeconomic Consequences of Wage Indexation Revisited

Since the mid-1970s, there has been considerable research on the macroeconomic consequences of wage indexation. Nonetheless, until recently, this research had not explicitly explored the implications of contracts that index wages to lagged inflation, the usual type of wage indexation observed in practice. Drawing mainly on recent research by the author, this paper examines the consequences of wage indexation to lagged inflation on aggregate wage formation, the cost of disinflation under money- and exchange-rate-based stabilization, the variability of output under alternative shocks and policy regimes, the choice of exchange rate regime, and the level and variability of inflation.

Wage Indexation and the Cost of Disinflation

While a standard academic presumption has been that wage indexation reduces the cost of disinflation, policymakers generally contend that wage indexing makes disinflation more difficult. To shed light on these views, this paper reexamines the effects of wage indexing on the output loss caused by money-based stabilization. It finds that the cost of disinflation with indexedwage contracts tends to be smaller than that with contracts that specify preset time-varying wages, but larger than that with contracts that specify fixed wages. Thus, the academic and the policymakers views can both be appropriate depending on the standard of reference.

Sticky Prices: An Empirical Assessment of Alternative Models

This paper presents a model of staggered price setting that allows for a flexible distribution of the durations of the prices underlying aggregate price behavior, and estimates it with U.S. data. When tested against an unrestricted version of this model, standard models of sticky prices are rejected. In contrast, a stylized model that assumes a trimodal distribution of price durations - with clusters on the first, fourth, and eighth quarter after prices are set - easily passes the same test. In addition, this model is able to replicate the dynamic behavior of inflation and output found in the data.

Inflation Targeting and Output Stability

This paper reexamines the effects of inflation targeting on output stability. It considers an economy with staggered price setting that is exposed to price shocks and where the policymaker cannot observe the current realizations of aggregate output and inflation. The paper shows that, if some price shocks can be anticipated, the effects of inflation targeting depend critically on the inflation indicator being targeted. Specifically, targeting headline inflation can severely destabilize output, while targeting inflation indicator of sticky prices may eliminate that problem and make the response of the output gap to aggregate shocks short-lived.

What Type of Contracts Underlie Aggregate Wage Dynamics

This paper shows that it is possible to estimate the importance of different types of wage contracts at the aggregate level using the same data used to estimate standard Phillips curves. It finds that the behavior of the Chilean private aggregate wage during the 1980s is well described by two-year contracts that are revised every six months according to 100 percent of past inflation. The estimates also show that the unemployment rate was a strong determinant of the contract’s target real wage and that most wage negotiations were carried through during the first half of every year. The results prove robust to a variety of tests and fit the data better than standard Phillips curves.

Wage Indexation and Macroeconomic Stability; The Gray-Fischer Theorem Revisted

Since the seminal papers by Gray (1976) and Fischer (1977) were published, the major theorem of the wage indexation literature has been that indexing wages stabilizes output when shocks are nominal and destabilizes output when shocks are real. This paper reexamines the validity of this proposition taking into account the lags in actual indexation practices in an economy similar to that originally considered by those authors. It shows that in such a setup, wage contracts indexed to lagged inflation tend to destabilize output regardless of whether shocks are nominal or real.

Macroeconomic Performance Under Alternative Exchange Rate Regimes; Does Wage Indexation Matter?

This paper reexamines the macroeconomic effects of wage indexation in an open economy under alternative exchange rate regimes. The main finding is that, once the lags in actual indexation rules are considered, wage indexation affects output behavior substantially less than posited in the previous academic literature. This result implies that the academic view that wage indexation makes a flexible exchange rate generally preferable is unwarranted and suggests that the choice of exchange rate regime with and without wage indexation depends on similar factors. The analysis also reveals that the net effects of wage indexation on macroeconomic stability are ambiguous.