Esther S. Parish

Environmental Indicators of Biofuel Sustainability: What About Context?

Indicators of the environmental sustainability of biofuel production, distribution, and use should be selected, measured, and interpreted with respect to the context in which they are used. The context of a sustainability assessment includes the purpose, the particular biofuel production and distribution system, policy conditions, stakeholder values, location, temporal influences, spatial scale, baselines, and reference scenarios. We recommend that biofuel sustainability questions be formulated with respect to the context, that appropriate indicators of environmental sustainability be developed or selected from more generic suites, and that decision makers consider context in ascribing meaning to indicators. In addition, considerations such as technical objectives, varying values and perspectives of stakeholder groups, indicator cost, and availability and reliability of data need to be understood and considered. Sustainability indicators for biofuels are most useful if adequate historical data are available, information can be collected at appropriate spatial and temporal scales, organizations are committed to use indicator information in the decision-making process, and indicators can effectively guide behavior toward more sustainable practices.

Higher trends but larger uncertainty and geographic variability in 21st century temperature and heat waves

Generating credible climate change and extremes projections remains a high-priority challenge, especially since recent observed emissions are above the worst-case scenario. Bias and uncertainty analyses of ensemble simulations from a global earth systems model show increased warming and more intense heat waves combined with greater uncertainty and large regional variability in the 21st century. Global warming trends are statistically validated across ensembles and investigated at regional scales. Observed heat wave intensities in the current decade are larger than worst-case projections. Model projections are relatively insensitive to initial conditions, while uncertainty bounds obtained by comparison with recent observations are wider than ensemble ranges. Increased trends in temperature and heat waves, concurrent with larger uncertainty and variability, suggest greater urgency and complexity of adaptation or mitigation decisions.

Estimating future global per capita water availability based on changes in climate and population

Human populations are profoundly affected by water stress, or the lack of sufficient per capita available freshwater. Water stress can result from overuse of available freshwater resources or from a reduction in the amount of available water due to decreases in rainfall and stored water supplies. Analyzing the interrelationship between human populations and water availability is complicated by the uncertainties associated with climate change projections and population projections. We present a simple methodology developed to integrate disparate climate and population data sources and develop first-order per capita water availability projections at the global scale. Simulations from the coupled land-ocean-atmosphere Community Climate System Model version 3 (CCSM3) forced with a range of hypothetical greenhouse gas emissions scenarios are used to project grid-based changes in precipitation minus evapotranspiration as proxies for changes in runoff, or fresh water supply. Population growth changes, according to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) storylines, are used as proxies for changes in fresh water demand by 2025, 2050 and 2100. These freshwater supply and demand projections are then combined to yield estimates of per capita water availability aggregated by watershed and political unit. Results suggest that important insights might be extracted from the use of the process developed here, notably including the identification of the globes most vulnerable regions in need of more detailed analysis and the relative importance of population growth versus climate change in altering future freshwater supplies. However, these are only exemplary insights and, as such, could be considered hypotheses that should be rigorously tested with multiple climate models, multiple observational climate datasets, and more comprehensive population change storylines.

Comparing Scales of Environmental Effects from Gasoline and Ethanol Production

Understanding the environmental effects of alternative fuel production is critical to characterizing the sustainability of energy resources to inform policy and regulatory decisions. The magnitudes of these environmental effects vary according to the intensity and scale of fuel production along each step of the supply chain. We compare the spatial extent and temporal duration of ethanol and gasoline production processes and environmental effects based on a literature review and then synthesize the scale differences on space–time diagrams. Comprehensive assessment of any fuel-production system is a moving target, and our analysis shows that decisions regarding the selection of spatial and temporal boundaries of analysis have tremendous influences on the comparisons. Effects that strongly differentiate gasoline and ethanol-supply chains in terms of scale are associated with when and where energy resources are formed and how they are extracted. Although both gasoline and ethanol production may result in negative environmental effects, this study indicates that ethanol production traced through a supply chain may impact less area and result in more easily reversed effects of a shorter duration than gasoline production.

Status and prospects for renewable energy using wood pellets from the southeastern United States

The ongoing debate about costs and benefits of wood‐pellet based bioenergy production in the southeastern United States (SE USA) requires an understanding of the science and context influencing market decisions associated with its sustainability. Production of pellets has garnered much attention as US exports have grown from negligible amounts in the early 2000s to 4.6 million metric tonnes in 2015. Currently, 98% of these pellet exports are shipped to Europe to displace coal in power plants. We ask, ‘How is the production of wood pellets in the SE USA affecting forest systems and the ecosystem services they provide?’ To address this question, we review current forest conditions and the status of the wood products industry, how pellet production affects ecosystem services and biodiversity, and what methods are in place to monitor changes and protect vulnerable systems. Scientific studies provide evidence that wood pellets in the SE USA are a fraction of total forestry operations and can be produced while maintaining or improving forest ecosystem services. Ecosystem services are protected by the requirement to utilize loggers trained to apply scientifically based best management practices in planning and implementing harvest for the export market. Bioenergy markets supplement incomes to private rural landholders and provide an incentive for forest management practices that simultaneously benefit water quality and wildlife and reduce risk of fire and insect outbreaks. Bioenergy also increases the value of forest land to landowners, thereby decreasing likelihood of conversion to nonforest uses. Monitoring and evaluation are essential to verify that regulations and good practices are achieving goals and to enable timely responses if problems arise. Conducting rigorous research to understand how conditions change in response to management choices requires baseline data, monitoring, and appropriate reference scenarios. Long‐term monitoring data on forest conditions should be publicly accessible and utilized to inform adaptive management.

Transatlantic wood pellet trade demonstrates telecoupled benefits

European demand for renewable energy resources has led to rapidly increasing transatlantic exports of wood pellets from the southeastern United States (SE US) since 2009. Disagreements have arisen over the global greenhouse gas reductions associated with replacing coal with wood, and groups on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean have raised concerns that increasing biomass exports might negatively affect SE US forests and the ecosystem services they provide. We use the telecoupling framework to test assertions that the intended benefits of the wood pellet trade for Europe might be offset by negative consequences in the SE US. Through a review of current literature and available data sets, we characterize the observed and potential changes in the environmental, social, and economic components of the sending and receiving regions to assess the overall sustainability of this renewable energy system. We conclude that the observed transatlantic wood pellet trade is an example of a mutually beneficial telecoupled system with the potential to provide environmental and socioeconomic benefits in both the SE US and Europe despite some negative effects on the coal industry. We recommend continued monitoring of this telecoupled system to quantify the environmental, social, and economic interactions and effects in the sending, receiving, and spillover systems over time so that evidence-based policy decisions can be made with regard to the sustainability of this renewable energy pathway.

A Web-Based Geographic Information Platform to Support Urban Adaptation to Climate Change

Increased frequency and intensity of extreme weather events and increasing population growth in cities bring to the forefront the need to easily evaluate risks in urban landscapes regarding critical infrastructure and vulnerable populations. In this chapter, we present an integrated framework for an urban climate adaptation tool (Urban-CAT) that will help cities plan for, rather than react to, possible risks to urban infrastructure and populations due to climate change. The core of the framework focuses on reducing risk by bringing together disparate, high-resolution data of risk indicators to characterize urban landscape and to develop resilience profiles. Additionally, the framework integrates climate and population growth data to better understand future impacts of these stressors on urban resiliency to develop effective adaptation strategies aimed at reducing socioeconomic costs associated with extreme weather events. This framework requires integration of the multitude of disparate, high-resolution data for analysis in a dynamic web environment. We address how to achieve this integration through the development of a distributed, high-performance geoprocessing engine.

Dataset of timberland variables used to assess forest conditions in two Southeastern United States’ fuelsheds ☆

The data presented in this article are related to the research article entitled “How is wood-based pellet production affecting forest conditions in the southeastern United States?” (Dale et al., 2017) [1]. This article describes how United States Forest Service (USFS) Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data from multiple state inventories were aggregated and used to extract ten annual timberland variables for trend analysis in two case study bioenergy fuelshed areas. This dataset is made publically available to enable critical or extended analyses of changes in forest conditions, either for the fuelshed areas supplying the ports of Savannah, Georgia and Chesapeake, Virginia, or for other southeastern US forested areas contributing biomass to the export wood pellet industry.

Processing and Monthly Summaries of Downscaled Climate Data for Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and the City of Knoxville, Tennessee have partnered to work on a Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project towards investigating climate change, mitigation, and adaptation measures in mid-sized cities. ORNL has statistically and dynamically downscaled ten Global Climate Models (GCMs) to both 1 km and 4 km resolutions. The processing and summary of those ten gridded datasets for use in a web-based tool is described. The summaries of each model are shown individually to assist in determining the similarities and differences between the model scenarios. The variables of minimum and maximum daily temperature and total monthly precipitation are summarized for the area of Knoxville, Tennessee for the periods of 1980-2005 and 2025-2050.

Analyzing the Implications of Climate Data on the Rainfall Frequency Spectrum: Case Study of Knoxville, Tennessee and Surrounding Region

Modeled daily precipitation values are used to determine changes in percentile rainfall event depths, for planning and mitigation of stormwater runoff, over past (1980-2005) and future (2025-2050) periods for Knoxville, Tennessee and the surrounding area.