Euel Elliott

End of an Era ? Affirmative Action and Reaction in the 1990s

This article looks at the political dynamics of affirmative action policy since its inception m the 1960s We suggest that while key variables created a relatively favorable climate for affirmative action m the first two decades or so of its existence, recent developments suggest that race-conscious programs will be substantially limited in the future, although not eliminated m their entirety. We contend that a changing judiciary, Republican control of Congress, and shifts m public opinion, as manifested in Proposition 209 m California, interact in ways that will make many compensatory programs difficult to maintain.

Men, Women and the Dynamics of Presidential Approval

Although commentary on the ‘gender gap’ is a staple of political discourse in the United States, most analyses of the dynamics of presidential approval have ignored possible gender differences in the forces driving approval ratings of US presidents. This article analyses gender differences in the impact of economic evaluations and political interventions on the dynamics of presidential approval between 1978 and 1997. The analyses are made possible by disaggregating 240 monthly Survey of Consumers datasets gathered over this period. These data show that womens economic evaluations are consistently more pessimistic than mens, regardless of who occupied the Oval Office. Analyses of rival presidential approval models reveal that a national prospective economic evaluation model performs best for women, but a personal prospective model works best for men. Parameter estimates indicate that economic evaluations accounted for substantial proportions of gender differences in presidential approval in the post-Carter era. Men and women also reacted differently to presidential transitions, with approval increasing more among men when Reagan replaced Carter, and more among women when Clinton replaced Bush. The hypothesis that men are more susceptible than women to rally effects induced by domestic and international crises and wars does not receive consistent support.

A spatial analysis of county-level outcomes in US Presidential elections: 1988-2000

Abstract This paper identifies spatial patterns of county-level presidential election outcomes from 1988 to 2000, and tests the retrospective (reward–punishment) and issue–priority models of voting behavior within the context of county-level geographical clusters. Based on our spatial analyses, we find that: the geographical concentration of the partisan vote has increased at both the global and regional scales. Globally, counties have become more likely to be clustered with similar counties in terms of their partisan support. Regionally, Democrats have increasingly received more votes from the East and the urban areas than Republican candidates while the opposite is true in the West and the rural areas. The regression analyses also support aspects of the issue–priority model of voting behavior, while the retrospective theory is confirmed only for 1996.

A complex systems approach for developing public policy toward terrorism: an agent-based approach

Abstract This paper examines terrorist “fluids” as complex adaptive systems. The principles of agent-based modeling are applied to global terrorism as a basis for developing agent-based models of terrorist behavior. Recommendations for agent-based models of terrorist behavior as policy analytic tools are presented.

The State of the Castle An Overview of Recent Trends in State Castle Doctrine Legislation and Public Policy

Second Amendment issues regarding the right to bear arms in the home have come into focus recently with the U.S. Supreme Court landmark decision in District of Columbia v. Heller. Despite strong antigun sentiment in the wake of high-profile shootings, sweeping new castle doctrine legislation has passed in 23 states in the last 4 years. These laws effectively expand individuals’ right to defend their home and possessions with lethal force without the necessity to retreat. To date, there is little criminological research that examines the evolution of the modern castle doctrine legislation in the United States. The present article addresses this gap in the literature by offering a historical perspective on the legal etiology of the castle doctrine relating to self-defense and then analyzes existing and pending castle doctrine legislation through December 2008. A discussion of the legal and criminological implications of these statutes on public policy is offered.

A Utility Function Analysis of Competing Models of Party Support

V. O. Keys reward-punishment model has long dominated scholarly thinking about the political economy of party support. The models popularity persists despite anomalous empirical evidence and challenges by issue-priority theorists who criticize the model for ignoring differences in the policy choices offered by competing parties. This paper argues that the reward-punishment and issue-priority perspectives are encompassed by utility function models of voter decision-making. Such models account for party support dynamics that are perverse according to reward-punishment assumptions. They also provide a theoretical rationale for specifying lagged economic effects in party support functions, while suggesting difficulties in doing so. The performance of utility function models is illustrated under varying assumptions about economic conditions and a voters knowledge of them.

Long-Wave Economic Cycles, Techno-Economic Paradigms, and the Pattern of Reform in American Public Administration:

Previous public administration research has failed to systematically explore the relationships between changing techno-economic paradigms and reform in American public administration. This article examines the linkages between bureaucratic reform and long-wave economic cycles. Specifically, the authors contend that the techno-economic paradigms that drive economic long waves are consistent with a pattern of initiation and eventually confirmation of reforms in public administration. The authors show that public administration reforms emerge during price downswings and are then followed by a period of “reform confirmation” during price upswings. The historical pattern of the approximately 50- to 60-year long-wave cycles reveals 25- to 30-year periods of downswing reform emergence followed by similar periods of price upswing reform confirmation. Finally, this article enhances our knowledge concerning the variables necessary to develop comprehensive theories of public administration reform.

The yield curve as an electoral bellwether

Abstract Taking advantage of recent thinking about leading economic indicators, an electoral outcome model is constructed that allows for much earlier prediction than found in current models. The model is built in three stages. First, electoral outcome is expressed as a function of economic performance and voter approval in the manner of current forecasting models, although a different measure of economic performance is used. Second, economic performance and voter approval are modeled as functions of new economic bellwethers. Third, the products of steps one and two are combined in a simultaneous equation system that captures the indirect effects of the bellwethers on electoral outcome, permitting year-ahead forecasts of presidential elections that accurately predict outcomes except when random exogenous events such as the Kennedy assassination intervene.

New models of presidential approval: Carter, Reagan and their Predecessors

Abstract Many analysts have uncritically assumed that macroeconomic conditions affect presidential approval according to a reward-punishment model. They thereby have ignored the possibility that presidential approval may be governed by perceived differences in the macroeconomic priorities of presidential and opposition parties and that the impact of the macroeconomy varies according to prevailing contexts of political debate. Also, many previous models may be misleading because important political interventions have been omitted or inappropriately specified. The theoretical and methodological limitations of existing research raise a number of questions about the nature, generality and relative significance of macroeconomic influences on presidential support. Here, these questions are addressed by analyses of presidential approval during the presidencies of Carter, Reagan and their predecessors.

Political Science Computing: A Review of Trends in Computer Evolution and Political Science Research

ABSTRACT The increase in computing power in the last four decades has had an enormous impact upon the way political scientists conduct research. In this article, we review the development of computing resources and the lifting of computational limitations of the use of political methodologies. Using descriptive analysis, we demonstrate that Moores Law, or the doubling of power in computing hardware every 18 months, is closely associated with the adoption of advanced statistical methods and database availability in political science research. Our findings are surely not startling to researchers, but our analyses do highlight and provide important details as to the evolution of the profession over the last few decades. We aim to provide hints as to the future direction of political science research as computational capabilities continue to grow.