L. Douglas Kiel

Long-Wave Economic Cycles, Techno-Economic Paradigms, and the Pattern of Reform in American Public Administration:

Previous public administration research has failed to systematically explore the relationships between changing techno-economic paradigms and reform in American public administration. This article examines the linkages between bureaucratic reform and long-wave economic cycles. Specifically, the authors contend that the techno-economic paradigms that drive economic long waves are consistent with a pattern of initiation and eventually confirmation of reforms in public administration. The authors show that public administration reforms emerge during price downswings and are then followed by a period of “reform confirmation” during price upswings. The historical pattern of the approximately 50- to 60-year long-wave cycles reveals 25- to 30-year periods of downswing reform emergence followed by similar periods of price upswing reform confirmation. Finally, this article enhances our knowledge concerning the variables necessary to develop comprehensive theories of public administration reform.

Thematic mapping with microcomputers: graphic display of social scientific data

This paper presents the current state of thematic mapping with microcomputers. It is intended to afford social scientists a view of the potential of using microcomputer-generated thematic maps as data presentation and research tools. Readers will take from this work an understanding of the types of map they might use for research and data presentation, an understanding of the general process of creating maps with microcomputers, and a view of the capabilities of microcomputer-based mapping software. Graphic images of five types of thematic map are presented. Keywords: thematic maps, microcomputers, microcomputer graphics, mapping software, graphic data display.

Chaos in Social Systems: Assessment and Relevance

From the rise of Social Darwinism in the 19th century to the behavioral revolution in the 20th century, social scientists have looked to both theory and method from the natural sciences to understand the dynamics of change in social systems. Paul Higgins’ chapter ‘Climate Change: Complexity, Chaos and Order’ offers insights from chaos theory and the complexity sciences as means for better understanding change in social systems. These insights have been and, in fact, continue to be applied to our understanding of social systems change (see Jantsch, 1980; Anderson and Pines, 1988; Kiel and Elliott, 1996; Eve et al, 1997).

Introduction: Special Issue on Natural Disasters and Public Works Management and Policy

This article serves as the introduction to a special issue on natural disasters and public works management and policy. The authors note that large-scale natural disasters provide the occasion for public attention turning to the public works infrastructure, as basic necessities for living in a modern society are threatened or interrupted. The recent experience with Hurricane Katrina in the southern United States showed that without the critical infrastructure of water, electricity, and roadways, the most technologically advanced nation can quickly appear to be little different than the least developed countries in the world. The authors consider the concept of resilience as it applies to public works management and policies, then discuss the idea of infrastructure as it refers to not only the physical plant but also the human systems that are required to support the communication, coordination, and cooperation required to handle a disaster. This introductory article concludes with a brief description of each of the five related articles presented in the special issue. They note that the five articles contained in this issue stress the importance of a well-maintained and adequate infrastructure, whether it is the levee system, the communications system, or buildings. Careful planning for disasters and effective leadership during and after them are essential for localities to recover as quickly as possible.

Introduction: Focus section on natural disasters and economic development

Large-scale natural disasters are perhaps the greatest test that any local or regional economy may face. The complete devastation of recent hurricane and flooding disasters along the U.S. Gulf Coast is a testament to this reality. When the economic foundation of a community is simply washed away, so too are the foundations of work, ownership, and even personal security that create a thriving community. Economic development, then, in the wake of natural disasters, is a means to make whole, a means for people to find some kind of a positive vision of a desired future. Thus, natural disasters create both an opportunity and a threat to local economies. Opportunities may be the realization of previously unattained goals and new modes for enhancing economic vitality and quality of life. The threats of natural disasters to local economies concern the potential for economic atrophy or, at worst, never-to-be-redeveloped areas. The rate of economic recovery from the devastation of large-scale natural disasters obviously includes many variables. Fortunately, recent research is helping to provide some insights into the variables that are likely to speed the process of recovery for local economies following natural disasters (Webb, Tierney, & Dahlhamer, 2002). One variable generally not given proper credence for economic recovery after any disaster, however, is leadership. Disasters are clearly effective instruments for measuring the quality of leadership in the public arena. One of the requirements of public leaders is to first place and then maintain critical issues on the top of the political agenda (Jones & Baumgartner, 2005). Such agenda maintenance may be perhaps the most invaluable leadership skill for public officials hoping to secure the long-term support and funding requisite to redevelop and rebuild devastated communities on the Gulf Coast. Any lack in this essential leadership skill threatens to allow the multitude of other pressing national and regional issues to place these devastated regions far into the background of the public conscience. Moreover, the vagaries of the electoral system remind us that elected officials often operate with thin lenses and short time frames. The length of time required to redevelop the Gulf Coast clearly requires an enduring focus from the local, regional, and state leadership across the public and private sectors. Students of management readily see that economic development following large-scale natural disasters represents a prime opportunity to employ thoughtful strategic planning. The need to resolve immediate issues in the face of disaster, however, often reduces the chances for rigorous planning and rethinking of preexisting strategies. Holding a finger in the hole in the metaphorical dike tends to breed tactical solutions instead of larger strategic thinking. Thus, a primary task for local and regional leaders will be to connect economic recovery with larger and perhaps novel goals that mere tactical responses may miss or confuse. A major component of the redevelopment of the Gulf Coast region is the capacity to bring business back to the region. Again, the challenge is to avoid the trap of tactical and immediate success without a larger view of the benefits and costs of such redevelopment (Sands, Reese, & Khan, 2006). The often-seen excessive drive to bring in business without a full accounting of