Eustaquio J. Reis

The dynamics of deforestation and economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Amulti-disciplinary team of authors analyze the economics of Brazilian deforestation using a large data set of ecological and economic variables. They survey the most up-to-date work in this field and present their own dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality-level panel data spanning the entire Brazilian Amazon from 1970 to 1996. By observing the dynamics of land-use change over such a long period the team is able to provide quantitative estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of both land clearing and government policies such as road building. The authors find that some government policies, such as road paving in already highly settled areas, are beneficial both for economic development and for the preservation of forest, while other policies, such as the construction of unpaved roads through virgin areas, stimulate wasteful land uses to the detriment of both economic growth and forest cover.

Road Investments, Spatial Spillovers, And Deforestation In The Brazilian Amazon

Understanding the impact of road investments on deforestation is part of a complete evaluation of the expansion of infrastructure for development. We find evidence of spatial spillovers from roads in the Brazilian Amazon: deforestation rises in the census tracts that lack roads but are in the same county as and within 100 km of a tract with a new paved or unpaved road. At greater distances from the new roads the evidence is mixed, including negative coefficients of inconsistent significance between 100 and 300 km, and if anything, higher neighbor deforestation at distances over 300 km.

Model Evaluation and Causality Testing in Short Panels: The Case of Infrastructure Provision and Population Growth in the Brazilian Amazon

In this paper we examine the relationship between infrastructure growth and population growth in the Amazon using a panel of 293 municipalities over the period from 1975 to 1985. Contemporaneous cross-section analysis confirms a strong positive correlation between infrastructure and urban population but does not indicate direction of causality. Thus, we employ a modified form of the traditional Granger causality tests to suit the short time series that we have available. Based on out-of-sample forecasting tests we conclude that the empirical evidence supports the hypothesis that growing urban populations lead to more infrastructure development, rather than vice versa. Copyright 2001 Blackwell Publishers

Scenarios of Future Amazonian Landscapes: Econometric and Dynamic Simulation Models

Amazonia and Global Change synthesizes results of the Large-Scale Biosphere-Atmosphere Experiment in Amazonia (LBA) for scientists and students of Earth system science and global environmental change. LBA, led by Brazil, asks how Amazonia currently functions in the global climate and biogeochemical systems and how the functioning of Amazonia will respond to the combined pressures of climate and land use change, such as: wet season and dry season aerosol concentrations, and their effects on diffuse radiation and photosynthesis; increasing greenhouse gas concentration, deforestation, widespread biomass burning and changes in the Amazonian water cycle; drought effects and simulated drought through rainfall exclusion experiments; the net flux of carbon between Amazonia and the atmosphere; floodplains as an important regulator of the basin carbon balance including serving as a major source of methane to the troposphere; and the impact of the likely increased profitability of cattle ranching. This book will serve a broad community of scientists and policy makers interested in global change and environmental issues with high-quality scientific syntheses accessible to nonspecialists in a wide community of social scientists, ecologists, atmospheric chemists, climatologists, and hydrologists. [Book Synopsis]

Road Impacts in Brazilian Amazonia

We examine the evidence on Amazonian road impacts with a strong emphasis on context. Impacts of a new road, on either deforestation or socioeconomic outcomes, depend upon the conditions into which roads are placed. Conditions that matter include the biophysical setting, such as slope, rainfall, and soil quality, plus externally determined socioeconomic factors like national policies, exchange rates, and the global prices of beef and soybeans. Influential conditions also include all prior infrastructural investments and clearing rates. Where development has already arrived, with significant economic activity and clearing, roads may decrease forest less and raise output more than where development is arriving, while in pristine areas, short-run clearing may be lower than immense long-run impacts. Such differences suggest careful consideration of where to invest further in transport.

The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: List of acronyms and abbreviations

Amulti-disciplinary team of authors analyze the economics of Brazilian deforestation using a large data set of ecological and economic variables. They survey the most up-to-date work in this field and present their own dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality-level panel data spanning the entire Brazilian Amazon from 1970 to 1996. By observing the dynamics of land-use change over such a long period the team is able to provide quantitative estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of both land clearing and government policies such as road building. The authors find that some government policies, such as road paving in already highly settled areas, are beneficial both for economic development and for the preservation of forest, while other policies, such as the construction of unpaved roads through virgin areas, stimulate wasteful land uses to the detriment of both economic growth and forest cover.

The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Frontmatter

Amulti-disciplinary team of authors analyze the economics of Brazilian deforestation using a large data set of ecological and economic variables. They survey the most up-to-date work in this field and present their own dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality-level panel data spanning the entire Brazilian Amazon from 1970 to 1996. By observing the dynamics of land-use change over such a long period the team is able to provide quantitative estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of both land clearing and government policies such as road building. The authors find that some government policies, such as road paving in already highly settled areas, are beneficial both for economic development and for the preservation of forest, while other policies, such as the construction of unpaved roads through virgin areas, stimulate wasteful land uses to the detriment of both economic growth and forest cover.

The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: Contents

Amulti-disciplinary team of authors analyze the economics of Brazilian deforestation using a large data set of ecological and economic variables. They survey the most up-to-date work in this field and present their own dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality-level panel data spanning the entire Brazilian Amazon from 1970 to 1996. By observing the dynamics of land-use change over such a long period the team is able to provide quantitative estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of both land clearing and government policies such as road building. The authors find that some government policies, such as road paving in already highly settled areas, are beneficial both for economic development and for the preservation of forest, while other policies, such as the construction of unpaved roads through virgin areas, stimulate wasteful land uses to the detriment of both economic growth and forest cover.

The Dynamics of Deforestation and Economic Growth in the Brazilian Amazon: References

A multi-disciplinary team of authors analyze the economics of Brazilian deforestation using a large data set of ecological and economic variables. They survey the most up to date work in this field and present their own dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality level panel data spanning the entire Brazilian Amazon from 1970 to 1996. By observing the dynamics of land use change over such a long period the team is able to provide quantitative estimates of the long-run economic costs and benefits of both land clearing and government policies such as road building. The authors find that some government policies, such as road paving in already highly settled areas, are beneficial both for economic development and for the preservation of forest, while other policies, such as the construction of unpaved roads through virgin areas, stimulate wasteful land uses to the detriment of both economic growth and forest cover.