Lykke E. Andersen

The dynamics of deforestation and economic growth in the Brazilian Amazon

Amulti-disciplinary team of authors analyze the economics of Brazilian deforestation using a large data set of ecological and economic variables. They survey the most up-to-date work in this field and present their own dynamic and spatial econometric analysis based on municipality-level panel data spanning the entire Brazilian Amazon from 1970 to 1996. By observing the dynamics of land-use change over such a long period the team is able to provide quantitative estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of both land clearing and government policies such as road building. The authors find that some government policies, such as road paving in already highly settled areas, are beneficial both for economic development and for the preservation of forest, while other policies, such as the construction of unpaved roads through virgin areas, stimulate wasteful land uses to the detriment of both economic growth and forest cover.

Social Mobility in Latin America: Links with Adolescent Schooling

This paper proposes a new measure of social mobility. It is based on schooling gap regressions and uses the Fields decomposition to determine the importance of family background in explaining teenagers schooling gaps.

The HIPC Initiative In Bolivia

ABSTRACT This paper examines the Bolivian experience with regard to debt relief through the HIPC Initiative. It has been agreed in principle that the debt-relief funds will be channelled to municipal governments in order to strengthen the decentralization process and to secure maximum poverty reduction. If everything goes according to the plan, the HIPC Initiative could have a substantial effect on poverty in Bolivia. However, the entire project builds on some very optimistic assumptions regarding the performance of the Bolivian economy during the next 18 years. If these assumptions do not hold, Bolivia will not reach the target debt/export ratio of 150. Worse, if the countrys economic performance does not live up to expectations, investment projects (roads, schools, hospitals, etc.) may remain half-finished, and unable to be maintained, because the central government cannot deliver the funds that donors have obliged them to commit to the municipalities as a condition of debt relief.

Modelling the Relationship between Government Policy, Economic Growth, and Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon

This paper develops a theoretical as well as an empirical model of deforestation and economic development in a tropical forest economy. The empirical model is estimated using panel data for 316 municipalities in the Brazilian Amazon during the period 1970-1985. The effects of controversial Brazilian policies, such as road building through the Amazon and subsidized credit to agricultural establishments, are evaluated both in the theoretical model and in the estimated empirical model. The paper concludes that subsidized credit, while certainly causing deforestation, is so beneficial for economic growth that the benefits seem to outweigh the environmental costs. This does not hold for road building, however, because the opening up of new land by federal road building tend to promote a wasteful use of land.

Geography and Development in Bolivia: Migration, Urban and Industrial Concentration, Welfare, and Convergence: 1950-1992

This paper argues that considering the impact of geographical variables within Bolivia makes feasible a considerably richer analysis. The picture that emergesis occasionally not entirely consistent with the international evidence, but nonethelesspoints toward a systematic and significant impact of geography on development.

Social Impacts of Climate Change in Chile : A Municipal Level Analysis of the Effects of Recent and Future Climate Change on Human Development and Inequality

This paper uses municipality level data to estimate the general relationship between climate, income, and life expectancy in Chile. The analysis finds that incomes are negatively related to temperature, while life expectancy is not significantly related to average temperatures. Both incomes and life expectancy are greater in areas with either very little rain or a lot of rain. The authors use the estimated relationships to simulate the effects of both past (1958-08) and future (2008-58) climate change. The findings indicate that past climate change has been favorable for the central, and most populous, part of Chile, and it has contributed to reduced poverty and reduced inequality of health outcomes. Whereas temperatures in the past have shown a downward trend for most of the Chilean population, climate models suggest that they will increase in the future, and that there will be a reduction in precipitation in the central part of Chile. The analysis simulates the likely effects of these projected climate changes over the next 50 years. The findings suggest that expected future climate will tend to reduce incomes across the whole country, with an average reduction of about 7 percent, all other things equal.

Social impacts of climate change in Peru: a district level analysis of the effects of recent and future climate change on human development and inequality

This paper uses district level data to estimate the general relationship between climate, income and life expectancy in Peru. The analysis finds that both incomes and life expectancy show hump-shaped relationships, with optimal average annual temperatures around 18-20oC. These estimated relationships were used to simulate the likely effects of both past (1958-2008) and future (2008-2058) climate change. At the aggregate level, future climate change in Peru is estimated to cause a small reduction in average life expectancy of about 0.2 years. This average, however, hides much larger losses in the already hot areas as well as substantial gains in currently cold areas. Similarly, the average impact on incomes is a modest reduction of 2.3 percent, but with some districts experiencing losses of up to 20 percent and others gains of up to 13 percent. Future climate change is estimated to cause an increase in poverty (all other things equal), but to have no significant effect on the distribution of incomes.

Social Impacts of Climate Change in Bolivia: A Municipal Level Analysis of the Effects of Recent Climate Change on Life Expectancy, Consumption, Poverty and Inequality

This paper analyzes the direct evidence of climate change in Bolivia during the past 60 years, and estimates how these changes have affected life expectancy and consumption levels for each of the 311 municipalities in Bolivia. Contrary to the predictions of most general circulation models, the evidence shows a consistent cooling trend of about 0.2°C per decade over all highland areas, slight and scattered evidence of warming in the lowlands, and no systematic changes in precipitation. The estimations indicate that the 1°C cooling experienced in the already cold highlands over the past five decades likely has reduced consumption possibilities by about 2-3 percent in these areas. Since the much richer population in the lowlands have benefitted slightly from recent climate change, the simulations suggest that recent climate change has contributed to an increase in inequality and poverty in Bolivia. Poor and indigenous peoples in the highlands are among the most severely affected populations. No statistically significant effect on life expectancy was found.

Modeling Amazon deforestation for policy purposes: reconciling conservation priorities and human development

Brazil has long ago removed most of the perverse government incentives that stimulated massive deforestation in the Amazon in the 1970s and 1980s, but the highly controversial policy concerning road building still remains. While data is now abundantly available due to the constant satellite surveillance of the Amazon, the analytical methods typically used to analyze the impact of roads on natural vegetation cover are methodologically weak and not very helpful in guiding public policy. This article discusses the respective weaknesses of typical geographic information system (GIS) analysis and typical municipality-level regression analysis, and shows what would be needed to construct an ideal model of deforestation processes. It also presents an alternative approach that is much less demanding in terms of modeling and estimation and is more useful for policymakers.

Net Carbon Emissions from Deforestation in Bolivia during 1990-2000 and 2000-2010: Results from a Carbon Bookkeeping Model

Accurate estimates of global carbon emissions are critical for understanding global warming. This paper estimates net carbon emissions from land use change in Bolivia during the periods 1990–2000 and 2000–2010 using a model that takes into account deforestation, forest degradation, forest regrowth, gradual carbon decomposition and accumulation, as well as heterogeneity in both above ground and below ground carbon contents at the 10 by 10 km grid level. The approach permits detailed maps of net emissions by region and type of land cover. We estimate that net CO2 emissions from land use change in Bolivia increased from about 65 million tons per year during 1990–2000 to about 93 million tons per year during 2000–2010, while CO2 emissions per capita and per unit of GDP have remained fairly stable over the sample period. If we allow for estimated biomass increases in mature forests, net CO2 emissions drop to close to zero. Finally, we find these results are robust to alternative methods of calculating emissions.