Eva Beaujouan

Fertility postponement is largely due to rising educational enrolment

The rise in educational enrolment is often cited as a possible cause of the trend to later childbearing in developed societies but direct evidence of its contribution to the aggregate change in fertility tempo is scarce. We show that rising enrolment, resulting in later ages at the end of education, accounts for a substantial part of the upward shift in the mean age at first birth in the 1980s and 1990s in Britain and in France. The postponement of first birth over that period has two components: a longer average period of enrolment and a post-enrolment component that is also related to educational level. The relationship between rising educational participation and the move to later fertility timing is almost certainly causal. Our findings therefore suggest that fertility tempo change is rooted in macro-economic and structural forces rather than in the cultural domain.

Cohabitation and marriage in Britain since the 1970s

The article presents an overview of trends in cohabitation and marriage in Britain over several decades, using a consistent set of retrospective histories from the General Household Survey 1979–2007. Time‐trends are presented, for men and women, of: the experience of different types of partnership by specified ages, the frequency of premarital cohabitation, the average time spent in different types of partnership, the timing of life course transitions, and the outcome of cohabitation and marriage at the fifth and tenth anniversaries.

Stability and change in fertility intentions in Britain, 1991–2007

The very low fertility experienced in several European countries in recent decades in the presence of higher intended family sizes has renewed interest in fertility intentions data. While the overall level of childbearing in Britain over the past few decades has remained relatively stable and high in comparison with many other European countries, we have seen sizeable increases in the age at which childbearing starts. This study uses data from the 1991 to 2007 General Household Surveys to examine trends in family intentions data in an attempt to arrive at a better understanding of these recent fertility developments. First, time trends in intended family size are compared with trends in observed fertility. Next, aggregate changes in intentions regarding the level and timing of fertility across the life course for cohorts are investigated together with the extent to which these aggregate intentions are matched by the subsequent childbearing of cohorts. Finally, both change across the life course and uncertainty in family intentions are examined. We conclude by discussing what these findings might tell us about contemporary reproductive decision making.

Sources of error in reported childlessness in a continuous British household survey

A recent investigation of the British General Household Survey (GHS) found substantial over-reporting of childlessness in recent years, particularly at older ages. We examine the phenomenon in further detail and find that the principal cause was change in survey procedures. To some extent the bias can be corrected for by using information on own children in the household. Revised fertility histories give period estimates of total fertility that are in close agreement with national vital registration statistics, unlike those based on original fertility histories of recent years. Misreporting in fertility histories dates primarily from administrative changes in the GHS in the years 1998–2000, and particularly from 2003, when the option of laptop self-completion (CASI) was introduced for reporting demographic histories.

Education and Cohabitation in Britain: A Return to Traditional Patterns?

Cohabitation is sometimes thought of as being inversely associated with education, but in Britain a more complex picture emerges. Educational group differences in cohabitation vary by age, time period, cohort, and indicator used. Well-educated women pioneered cohabitation in Britain in the 1970s and 1980s. In the most recent cohorts, however, the less educated have exceeded the best educated in the proportions ever having cohabited at young ages. But the main difference by education currently seems largely a matter of timing—that is, the less educated start cohabiting earlier than the best educated. In Britain, educational differentials in cohabitation appear to be reinstating longstanding social patterns in the level and timing of marriage. Taking partnerships as a whole, social differentials have been fairly stable. Following a period of innovation and diffusion, there is much continuity with the past.

Reweighting the General Household Survey 1979–2007

We have calculated two new sets of weights applicable to the General Household Survey (GHS) from 1979 to 2007. One of these is for use with any general analysis of GHS topics and the second is designed for analyses of data collected in the Family Information section. The methods used follow closely those employed by ONS from 1996 onwards. The performance of the weights is assessed in estimating the Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 1971‐2007, an aggregate measure of fertility for which reliable figures are available at national level from vital registration statistics. Our weights improve the GHS estimates, reducing bias both in the TFR and in age‐specific fertility rates.

The limited effect of increasing educational attainment on childlessness trends in twentieth-century Europe, women born 1916–65

During the twentieth century, trends in childlessness varied strongly across European countries while educational attainment grew continuously across them. Using census and large-scale survey data from 13 European countries, we investigated the relationship between these two factors among women born between 1916 and 1965. Up to the 1940 birth cohort, the share of women childless at age 40+ decreased universally. Afterwards, the trends diverged across countries. The results suggest that the overall trends were related mainly to changing rates of childlessness within educational groups and only marginally to changes in the educational composition of the population. Over time, childlessness levels of the medium-educated and high-educated became closer to those of the low-educated, but the difference in level between the two better educated groups remained stable in Western and Southern Europe and increased slightly in the East.

Late Motherhood in Low-Fertility Countries: Reproductive Intentions, Trends and Consequences

Delayed parenthood is a central feature of the massive transformation of family and reproduction in rich countries. We analyse the shift of motherhood towards later reproductive ages during the last four decades and review its consequences for children and their mothers in low-fertility countries in Europe, North America, Oceania and East Asia. First we analyse the trends in birth rates at advanced reproductive ages (35+) and document the rapid rise in first and second birth rates at these ages. We show that a relatively high share of childless women and of women with one child aged 35-44 still plan to have a(nother) child in the future. Subsequently, we discuss the limited success rates of assisted reproduction at advanced reproductive ages. Next we outline the key drivers of delayed parenthood and its demographic consequences. Finally, we briefly review the consequences of delayed motherhood for pregnancy outcomes, maternal and child health and highlight selected positive consequences of later parenthood for mothers and children. We argue that economic and social rationales for late reproduction clash with the biological and health rationales for having children earlier in life.

Stability of Successive Unions: Do People Learn from Their Past Partnership?

Increasing union instability and the diversification of conjugal trajectories have opened up a new research area in family studies: the breakup of second unions. There are two levels of questioning here. At the level of unions, are second relationships more fragile than first ones? At the individual level, are the determinants of separation the same for first and second unions? This chapter takes up these questions by way of an analytical model applied to women who have already experienced a union. We find that the greater fragility of second unions is entirely explained by the selection of less “stable” women into second unions and by the difference in family structure between first and second unions. Children born before second unions are formed make those unions more unstable than they would otherwise be, and the family characteristics of the second union are much stronger determinants of its stability when neither partner has children when the new union is formed. This study contributes new material to the overall question of the differences between first and second unions.

Do People Have Reproductive Goals? Constructive Preferences and the Discovery of Desired Family Size

The frequency of uncertainty in response to survey questions on fertility expectations is relatively high. This is inconsistent with the classical rational choice model implicit in much demographic research. Whether for this or other reasons, the phenomenon is by and large overlooked. Uncertainty in relation to fertility is, we suggest, genuine rather than the result of faulty measurement or poorly motivated responses. Its relatively high frequency requires that it is accounted for in any theory of fertility decision making.