Tomáš Sobotka

Demographic shifts in the Czech Republic after 1989: A second demographic transition view

A dramatic change in fertility,family formation and living arrangements tookplace in the Czech Republic over the 1990s. Theestablishment of democracy, profound socialtransformation and transition to the marketeconomy affected the values and demographicbehaviour of the young Czech generation. Thispaper examines whether these demographic shiftscan be interpreted within the framework of thesecond demographic transition. The theoreticalpart discusses the idea of the transition,outlining three distinctive conceptualisations.Two of them – the view of the transition as aprogression of characteristic interrelateddemographic changes and a broader viewstressing the importance of underlyingideational factors – fit the Czech situationvery well. A comparison with the Netherlandsreveals that the onset of the transition in theCzech Republic may be clearly located in thefirst half of the 1990s, lagging two decadesbehind the Netherlands.

Declining trends in conception rates in recent birth cohorts of native Danish women: a possible role of deteriorating male reproductive health.

Recent findings of poor semen quality among at least 20% of normal young men in Denmark prompted us to use unique Danish registers on births and induced abortions to evaluate a possible effect of the poor male fecundity on pregnancy rates among their presumed partners – the younger cohorts of women. We have analysed data from the Danish birth and abortion registries as well as the Danish registry for assisted reproduction (ART) and defined a total natural conception rate (TNCR), which is equal to fertility rate plus induced abortion rate minus ART conception rate. A unique personal identification number allowed the linkage of these databases. Our database included 706 270 native Danish women born between 1960 and 1980. We used projections to estimate the fertility of the later cohorts of women who had not yet finished their reproduction. We found that younger cohorts had progressively lower TNCR and that in terms of their total fertility rate, the declining TNCR is compensated by an increasing use of ART. Our hypothesis of an ongoing birth cohort-related decline in fecundity was also supported by our finding of increasing and substantial use of ART in the management of infertility of relatively young couples in the later cohorts. Furthermore, the lower rates of induced abortion among the younger birth cohorts, often viewed as a success of health education programs, may not be fully explained by improved use of contraception. It seems more likely that decreased fecundity because of widespread poor semen quality among younger cohorts of otherwise normal men may explain some of the observed decline in conception rates. This may imply increasing reproductive health problems and lower fertility in the future, which is difficult to reverse in the short term. The current and projected widespread use of ART in Denmark may be a sign of such an emerging public health problem.

Attitudes and Intentions Toward Childlessness in Europe

This study uses the IPPAS data for 13 European societies to analyse attitudes related to childlessness and intentions to remain childless. We combine descriptive analysis of all analysed countries with logistic regression of intentions to remain childless in Belgium (Flanders), Germany, Italy and Poland for respondents aged 18–39. We observe that attitudes toward children and childlessness are similar for men and women, but depict a wide cross-country differentiation, with respondents in the Netherlands and Belgium (Flanders) showing the most positive attitudes towards childlessness. The survey indicates that a significant proportion of younger childless respondents in each country intend to remain childless or are uncertain about parenthood. Germany stands out by the overall high levels of intended childlessness, as well as by a high proportion of uncertain and undecided respondents. Our analysis has documented a high degree of correlation between intended childlessness and preferences for less traditional living arrangements; as well as a strong association between respondents’ positive attitudes toward family life and their fertility intentions.

Semen quality, reproductive hormones and fertility of men operated for hypospadias

The testicular function of men previously operated for hypospadias has been sparsely investigated. Therefore, we investigated semen quality and reproductive hormones of 92 men with isolated hypospadias (IH) and 20 with hypospadias and additional genital disorders (HAGD) and compared with similar results from young men from the general Danish population. All participants lived the Copenhagen area of Denmark. Additionally, fertility information on 1083 men registered as operated for hypospadias was retrieved from national registries. The semen quality of men with IH did not differ from controls, but was reduced in men with HAGD. Median values for IH and HAGD were, respectively: sperm concentration 52 and 32 million (mill)/mL (p = 0.02), total sperm counts 173 and 101 mill (p = 0.03), motile spermatozoa 70 and 58% (p = 0.007) and morphological normal spermatozoa 9 and 4% (p = 0.004). Men with IH had a slight increase in follicle stimulating hormone and luteinizing hormone levels, whereas men with HAGD had more pronounced disturbances. 24.0% of the 1083 men operated for hypospadias were registered as fathers to at least one child, whereas the corresponding number in the general age-matched population was 29.4% (p < 0.01). In conclusion, the majority of men with IH had normal semen quality, whereas it was reduced for men with HAGD. However, reproductive hormone levels indicated a subtle impairment of testicular function also in men with IH. An observed lower number of fathers among men with hypospadias may be because of psychosocial aspects, sexual dysfunction or reduced semen quality or a combination of these factors. Our results should be reassuring for patients with mild forms of IH and their relatives. They can be informed that hypospadias in such cases is not generally associated with poor semen quality. Particularly among patients with HAGD, several may, however, need fertility treatment to reproduce.

Trends in rates of natural conceptions among Danish women born during 1960–1984

STUDY QUESTION The aim of the study was to analyse trends in the rate of natural conceptions (RNC) among birth cohorts of women born during the period 1960-1984. SUMMARY ANSWER In this nationwide study of Danish-born female cohorts born during the period 1960-1984, we found a gradual decline in the RNC with successive birth cohorts. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY Our results confirm the findings from a previous study on trends in RNC among native Danish women. STUDY DESIGN, SIZE, DURATION This is a register-based cohort study. Our data set included 803 435 native Danish women born in 1960-1984, of whom 68.2% had conceived at least one child as of 1 January 2008, by which time the follow-up was terminated. PARTICIPANTS/MATERIALS, SETTING, METHODS Data from Danish national registers were linked at the individual level using unique personal numbers assigned at birth to each resident. We analysed the data for the cohorts of native Danish women born in 1960-1984 and resident in Denmark in 2008. For these cohorts, we estimated the RNC per woman, defined as the mean number of live births minus live births after assisted reproductive technology (ART) plus the mean number of induced abortions. Births, abortions and births after ART were partly projected for the younger cohorts who had not finished their reproductive years before 2008. In addition, we looked at trends in hormonal contraception use. MAIN RESULTS In the main projection scenario, the RNC gradually declined with successive cohorts from 2.39 among women born in 1960 to 2.15 among women born in 1984, with stable values of 2.15-2.16 projected in the youngest cohorts analysed, 1979-1984. The projected decline was a consequence of a decrease in induced abortion rates and an increase in the use of ART among the younger cohorts. Furthermore, we projected a cohort increase in the share of women without natural conceptions. LIMITATIONS, REASONS FOR CAUTION A considerable portion of the results was based on projections, which involve uncertainty, especially concerning the results for women born in 1980 and later. In addition, information on IUI could not be included, which led to underestimation of the frequency of births after ART treatment. WIDER IMPLICATIONS OF THE FINDINGS The results of our study contribute new insights to the research field of declining fertility rates in Europe and many other parts of the world.

Childlessness in Europe: Reconstructing Long-Term Trends Among Women Born in 1900–1972

This study combines census, survey, and vital statistics data to reconstruct childlessness trends among women born between 1900 and 1972 in 30 European countries. After discussing the available sources, their strengths and weaknesses, and the selection of data used in this article, I present childlessness trends in individual countries and broader European regions, and analyse between-country variability. Europe has experienced a U-shaped pattern in permanent childlessness among women born between 1900 and 1972, with the lowest levels typically reached among the 1940s cohorts. A clear contrast exists between the generally low levels of childlessness in the former state-socialist countries of Europe and the higher levels of childlessness in other regions. However, as childlessness in central and eastern Europe has increased among women born in the late 1960s and early 1970s, this long-standing divide is now eroding. The trend towards increasing childlessness is levelling off in much of western Europe (e.g., in Switzerland and England and Wales). In conclusion, I suggest that women in southern Europe, especially in Italy and Spain, are on track to have the highest levels of childlessness in Europe. I also argue that childlessness trends might become more unstable and more difficult to predict as many women have put off parenthood until late reproductive ages, when they have relatively little time left to have a child.

Late Motherhood in Low-Fertility Countries: Reproductive Intentions, Trends and Consequences

Delayed parenthood is a central feature of the massive transformation of family and reproduction in rich countries. We analyse the shift of motherhood towards later reproductive ages during the last four decades and review its consequences for children and their mothers in low-fertility countries in Europe, North America, Oceania and East Asia. First we analyse the trends in birth rates at advanced reproductive ages (35+) and document the rapid rise in first and second birth rates at these ages. We show that a relatively high share of childless women and of women with one child aged 35-44 still plan to have a(nother) child in the future. Subsequently, we discuss the limited success rates of assisted reproduction at advanced reproductive ages. Next we outline the key drivers of delayed parenthood and its demographic consequences. Finally, we briefly review the consequences of delayed motherhood for pregnancy outcomes, maternal and child health and highlight selected positive consequences of later parenthood for mothers and children. We argue that economic and social rationales for late reproduction clash with the biological and health rationales for having children earlier in life.

Seeding the gender revolution: Women’s education and cohort fertility among the baby boom generations

In Europe and the United States, women’s educational attainment started to increase around the middle of the twentieth century. The expected implication was fertility decline and postponement, whereas in fact the opposite occurred. We analyse trends in the quantum of cohort fertility among the baby boom generations in 15 countries and how these relate to women’s education. Over the 1901–45 cohorts, the proportion of parents with exactly two children rose steadily and homogeneity in family sizes increased. Progression to a third child and beyond declined in all the countries, continuing the ongoing trends of the fertility transition. In countries with a baby boom, and especially among women with post-primary education, this was compensated for by decreasing childlessness and increasing progression to a second child. These changes, linked to earlier stages of the fertility transition, laid the foundations for later fertility patterns associated with the gender revolution.

The European Middle Way? Low Fertility, Family Change, and Gradual Policy Adjustments in Austria and the Czech Republic

This chapter provides a comparative analysis of fertility and family transformations and policy responses in Austria and the Czech Republic, two neighboring countries in Central Europe that were until 1989 separated by the “Iron Curtain” dividing the two competing political blocs in Europe. The comparison is stimulated by the geographic proximity and shared history and culture of these two countries in the past and their gradual economic and social convergence in the most recent quarter century. During this recent period, both societies became surprisingly similar in their fertility and family patterns and main family policy trends. Fertility in both countries is relatively low, but not extremely low when compared with the countries of Southern Europe or East Asia. The period total fertility rate recently converged to 1.5 births per woman, and cohort fertility rates for the women born in the mid-1970s are projected at 1.65 (Austria) and 1.8 (Czech Republic) births per woman. Austrian fertility rates have been remarkably stable since the 1980s, while in the Czech Republic fertility imploded during the 1990s, following the political regime change, and then partly recovered in the 2000s. In both countries, childbearing has rapidly shifted to later ages and increasingly has taken place outside marriage, with more than one-half of first births now born to cohabiting couples and single mothers. Czech women are much less likely to remain childless, possibly due to the persistently strong normative support to parenthood in the country. Family policies, relatively generous in terms of government expenditures, were until recently dominated by a view that mothers should stay at home for an extended period with their children, making the return to employment difficult for women. The combination of extensive parental leave, negative attitudes toward working mothers with children below age three, limited availability of public childcare for these children, and in the Czech Republic, limited availability of part-time employment affects childbearing decisions, especially among highly educated women. Recent policy adjustments have made parental leave more flexible in both countries and, in the case of Austria, have supported a gradual expansion of public childcare and a stronger involvement of men in childrearing.

Famille et parente : Normes et comportements@@@Postponement of Childbearing and Low Fertility in Europe

Europeanen stellen het ouderschap steeds verder uit. Vrouwen in Ierland, Italie, Frankrijk, Nederland, Spanje, Zweden en Zwitserland krijgen hun eerste kind na hun 28-jarige leeftijd, gemiddeld 4 jaar later dan de generatie van hun moeders. Gelijktijdig daalt de periode vruchtbaarheid tot ongekende lage niveaus, vooral in landen van Centraal en Oost Europa. In 2001 kende Europa een vruchtbaarheidscijfer (TFR) van 1.39. In alle post-communistische landen van Europa en alle landen van Zuid Europa (behalve Portugal) werd een TFR van minder dan 1.4 geregistreerd. In vijftien landen was de TFR lager dan 1.30. Deze twee trends – uitstel van het eerste kind en daling van de vruchtbaarheid tot ongekende lage niveaus – zijn aan elkaar gerelateerd. De centrale vraag in dit boek is of de zeer lage periode vruchtbaarheidscijfers in Europa het resultaat zijn van het uitstel van ouderschap (aangeduid als ‘tempo effect’) of van een daling van de vruchtbaarheidsniveau (aangeduid als ‘quantum effect’). Het uitstellen van ouderschap verstoort de periode vruchtbaarheid. De verstoring houdt op zodra de leeftijd waarop vrouwen kinderen krijgen stabiliseert. Een gevolg is dat vruchtbaarheids-indicatoren die transversaal gemeten worden een verkeerd beeld kunnen geven van de vruchtbaarheid. Deze studie besteedt relatief veel aandacht aan methodologie aspecten van vruchtbaarheidsindicatoren en aan alternatieven voor de veel gebruikte TFR. De andere onderwerpen die in deze studie aan bod komen, namelijk analyse en projectie van kinderloosheid in Europe and de Vereinigte Staaten en een analyse en interpretatie van vruchtbaarheidsveranderingen in Centraal en Oost Europa, zijn aan het uitstel van het ouderschap gerelateerd. Het onderzoek werd verricht in het kader van het project ‘Naar een scenariomodel voor economische determinanten van Europese bevolkingsdynamiek’, dat werd gefinancierd door de Nederlandse Organisatie voor Wetenschappelijk Onderzoek (NWO) [project nummer A 510-03-901]. Het doel van het project was een beter inzicht te verkrijgen in de determinanten van demografische processen (vruchtbaarheid, sterfte, binnenlandse en buitenlandse migratie, en de interactie tussen deze processen) met het oog op een betere theoretische en empirische onderbouwing van demografische scenario’s voor Europa en de Europese regio’s. Het onderzoek waarover in dit boek wordt gerapporteerd is gericht op de meest markante aspecten van de vruchtbaarheidstrends in Europa: lage en zeer lage periode vruchtbaarheid, uitstel van het eerste kind, en de dramatische transformatie van het gezin in Centraal en Oost Europa. Indien de gegevens dat toelaten wordt een gedetailleerd beeld gegeven van trends per land. Een grote verscheidenheid aan statistische gegevens wordt gebruikt, afkomstig van meerdere bronnen. Naast een bespreking van markante trends leidt deze studie tot inzicht in mogelijke toekomstige ontwikkelingen en scenario’s. .