Ewan A. Macdonald

A review of financial instruments to pay for predator conservation and encourage human–carnivore coexistence

One of the greatest challenges in biodiversity conservation today is how to facilitate protection of species that are highly valued at a global scale but have little or even negative value at a local scale. Imperiled species such as large predators can impose significant economic costs at a local level, often in poverty-stricken rural areas where households are least able to tolerate such costs, and impede efforts of local people, especially traditional pastoralists, to escape from poverty. Furthermore, the costs and benefits involved in predator conservation often include diverse dimensions, which are hard to quantify and nearly impossible to reconcile with one another. The best chance of effective conservation relies upon translating the global value of carnivores into tangible local benefits large enough to drive conservation “on the ground.” Although human–carnivore coexistence involves significant noneconomic values, providing financial incentives to those affected negatively by carnivore presence is a common strategy for encouraging such coexistence, and this can also have important benefits in terms of reducing poverty. Here, we provide a critical overview of such financial instruments, which we term “payments to encourage coexistence”; assess the pitfalls and potentials of these methods, particularly compensation and insurance, revenue-sharing, and conservation payments; and discuss how existing strategies of payment to encourage coexistence could be combined to facilitate carnivore conservation and alleviate local poverty.

Identification of Areas in Brazil that Optimize Conservation of Forest Carbon, Jaguars, and Biodiversity

A major question in global environmental policy is whether schemes to reduce carbon pollution through forest management, such as Reducing Emissions from Deforestation and Degradation (REDD+), can also benefit biodiversity conservation in tropical countries. We identified municipalities in Brazil that are priorities for reducing rates of deforestation and thus preserving carbon stocks that are also conservation targets for the endangered jaguar (Panthera onca) and biodiversity in general. Preliminary statistical analysis showed that municipalities with high biodiversity were positively associated with high forest carbon stocks. We used a multicriteria decision analysis to identify municipalities that offered the best opportunities for the conservation of forest carbon stocks and biodiversity conservation under a range of scenarios with different rates of deforestation and carbon values. We further categorized these areas by their representativeness of the entire country (through measures such as percent forest cover) and an indirect measure of cost (number of municipalities). The municipalities that offered optimal co-benefits for forest carbon stocks and conservation were termed REDDspots (n = 159), and their spatial distribution was compared with the distribution of current and proposed REDD projects (n = 135). We defined REDDspots as the municipalities that offer the best opportunities for co-benefits between the conservation of forest carbon stocks, jaguars, and other wildlife. These areas coincided in 25% (n = 40) of municipalities. We identified a further 95 municipalities that may have the greatest potential to develop additional REDD+ projects while also targeting biodiversity conservation. We concluded that REDD+ strategies could be an efficient tool for biodiversity conservation in key locations, especially in Amazonian and Atlantic Forest biomes.

Multiple-scale prediction of forest loss risk across Borneo

ContextThe forests of Borneo have among the highest biodiversity and also the highest forest loss rates on the planet.ObjectivesOur objectives were to: (1) compare multiple modelling approaches, (2) evaluate the utility of landscape composition and configuration as predictors, (3) assess the influence of the ratio of forest loss and persistence points in the training sample, (4) identify the multiple-scale drivers of recent forest loss and (5) predict future forest loss risk across Borneo.MethodsWe compared random forest machine learning and logistic regression in a multi-scale approach to model forest loss risk between 2000 and 2010 as a function of topographical variables and landscape structure, and applied the highest performing model to predict the spatial pattern of forest loss risk between 2010 and 2020. We utilized a naïve model as a null comparison and used the total operating characteristic AUC to assess model performance.ResultsOur analysis produced five main results. We found that: (1) random forest consistently outperformed logistic regression and the naïve model; (2) including landscape structure variables substantially improved predictions; (3) a ratio of occurrence to non-occurrence points in the training dataset that does not match the actual ratio in the landscape biases the predictions of both random forest and logistic regression; (4) forest loss risk differed between the three nations that comprise Borneo, with patterns in Kalimantan highly related to distance from the edge of the previous frontier of forest loss, while Malaysian Borneo showed a more diffuse pattern related to the structure of the landscape; (5) we predicted continuing very high rates of forest loss in the 2010–2020 period, and produced maps of the expected risk of forest loss across the full extent of Borneo.ConclusionsThese results confirm that multiple-scale modelling using landscape metrics as predictors in a random forest modelling framework is a powerful approach to landscape change modelling. There is immense immanent risk to Borneo’s forests, with clear spatial patterns of risk related to topography and landscape structure that differ between the three nations that comprise Borneo.

Learning from the past to prepare for the future: felids face continued threat from declining prey

Many contemporary species of large-felids (>15 kg) feed upon prey that are endangered, raising concern that prey population declines (defaunation) will further threaten felids. We assess the threat that defaunation presents by investigating a late Quaternary (LQ), ‘present-natural’ counterfactual scenario. Our present-natural counterfactual is based on predicted ranges of mammals today in the absence of any impacts of modern humans (Homo sapiens) through time. Data from our present-natural counterfactual are used to understand firstly how megafauna extinction has impacted felid communities to date and secondly to quantify the threat to large-felid communities posed by further declines in prey richness in the future. Our purpose is to identify imminent risks to biodiversity conservation and their cascading consequences and, specifically, to indicate the importance of preserving prey diversity. We pursue two lines of enquiry; first, we test whether the loss of prey species richness is a potential cause of large-felid extinction and range loss. Second, we explore what can be learnt from the large-scale large-mammal LQ losses, particularly in the Americas and Europe, to assess the threat any further decline in prey species presents to large-felids today, particularly in Africa and Asia. Large-felid species richness was considerably greater under our present-natural counterfactual scenario compared to the current reality. In total, 86% of cells recorded at least one additional felid in our present-natural counterfactual, and up to 4-5 more large-felids in 10% of the cells. A significant positive correlation was recorded between the number of prey species lost and the number of large-felids lost from a cell. Extant felids most at risk include lion and Sunda clouded leopard, as well as leopard and cheetah in parts of their range. Our results draw attention to the continuation of a trend of megafauna decline that began with the emergence of hominins in the Pleistocene.

Simulating impacts of rapid forest loss on population size, connectivity and genetic diversity of Sunda clouded leopards (Neofelis diardi) in Borneo

Habitat loss is the greatest threat to biodiversity in Borneo, and to anticipate and combat its effects it is important to predict the pattern of loss and its consequences. Borneo is a region of extremely high biodiversity from which forest is being lost faster than in any other. The little-known Sunda clouded leopard (Neofelis diardi) is the top predator in Borneo and is likely to depend critically on habitat connectivity that is currently being rapidly lost to deforestation. We modeled the effects of landscape fragmentation on population size, genetic diversity and population connectivity for the Sunda clouded leopard across the entirety of Borneo. We modelled the impacts of land use change between the years 2000, 2010 and projected forwards to 2020. We found substantial reductions across all metrics between 2000 and 2010: the proportion of landscape connected by dispersal fell by approximately 12.5% and the largest patch size declined by around 15.1%, leading to a predicted 11.4% decline in clouded leopard numbers. We also predict that these trends will accelerate greatly towards 2020, with the percentage of the landscape being connected by dispersal falling by about 57.8%, the largest patch size falling by around 62.8% and the predicted clouded leopard population falling by 62.5% between 2010 and 2020. We predicted that these large declines in clouded leopard population size and connectivity will also substantially reduce the genetic diversity of the remaining clouded leopard population.

Improving the role of global conservation treaties in addressing contemporary threats to lions

Despite their iconic status, lion (Panthera leo) populations continue to decline across the majority of their range. In the light of the recent decision (in October 2017) to add lions to the Appendices of the Convention on Migratory Species (CMS), this paper identifies the new and existing legal protections afforded to lions through five global treaties, and maps these protections against the most critical contemporary threats facing the species. It thus offers a new analysis of the CMS listing, and draws on existing legal reviews, to highlight the ways in which global treaties offer differing forms of protection for lions. It then combines multiple concordant assessments of lion populations, to highlight nine categories of threat: human-lion conflict, bushmeat poaching, human encroachment, trophy hunting, trade in lion bones, unpredictable environmental events, socio-economic factors, policy failures, and governance/institutional weakness. The paper assesses how the various treaties each address these different categories of threat. The analysis identifies two pathways for improving legal protection: expanding the application of global treaties in respect of lions and their habitats (the paper considers the CMS listing in these terms), and improving the implementation of treaty commitments through local and national-scale actions. Furthermore, it identifies local implementation challenges that include the local knowledge of rules, compliance with rules and enforcement capacity, alongside the variety in local contexts and situations, and suggests where global treaties might provide support in meeting these challenges. We suggest that this analysis has wider implications for how treaty protection can and is utilised to protect various species of large-bodied, wide-ranging animals.