Eyitayo Onifade

PREDICTING RECIDIVISM IN PROBATIONERS WITH THE YOUTH LEVEL OF SERVICE CASE MANAGEMENT INVENTORY (YLS/CMI)

Justice systems depend on risk assessment instruments to identify juveniles who have the greatest likelihood to re-offend. This study was an attempt to validate the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory as a predictor of re-offense for young offenders between the ages of 10 and 16. Although 26% of youth in the sample (n = 328) re-offended, there were significant differences in offense rates among juveniles classified as high risk, moderate risk, and low risk. The YLS/CMI also had a high correct classification rate, which was reflected in an AUC of .62. Finally, youth of different risk levels also showed differences in time to re-offense rates. Results indicate further study of the YLS/CMIs validity with girls and minorities is necessary. Furthermore, risk prediction could be improved by inclusion of ecological predictive variables related to delinquency.

Risk Assessment: The Predictive Validity of the Youth Level of Service Case Management Inventory with African Americans and Girls

Risk assessments like the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) are widely used by juvenile justice systems to identify young offenders that are likely to reoffend. These instruments are also used for case management purposes, to determine areas of criminogenic risk that are amenable to intervention. This study explored the risk–recidivism relationship between YLS/CMI score and reoffense rates over 24 months for African Americans (n = 459), Whites (n = 509), boys (n = 694), and girls (n = 274). The YLS/CMI had an area under the curve (AUC) coefficient of .63 overall; however, subgroup differences in distribution of recidivism by risk level were found. Moreover, subscales for the YLS/CMI had differential predictive validity for the respective subgroups. Future study should account for macrolevel risk factors like policing and surveillance levels, which are currently excluded from the assessment.

Multilevel recidivism prediction: incorporating neighborhood socioeconomic ecology in juvenile justice risk assessment

Risk assessments such as the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) that predict delinquency outcomes based on proximal risk factors may benefit from an incorporation of distal risk factors in their prediction models. This study utilized a juvenile probationer sample and block group SES data in exploring the differential predictive validity of the YLS/CMI with youth of similar person-centered risk levels from different criminogenic neighborhood types. The study entailed an exploratory factor analysis of block group socioeconomic variables, which were used in a cluster analysis to create criminogenic neighborhood typology system. Hierarchical logistic regression was used to analyze the relationship among recidivism (Level 1), risk score (Level 1), neighborhood SES factors (Level 2), and neighborhood types (Level 2). Significant interactions were found across levels among variables, suggesting the risk—recidivism relationship was moderated by neighborhood socioeconomic ecology. Implications for practice and policy are discussed.

Truancy and Patterns of Criminogenic Risk in a Young Offender Population

This study validated a widely used risk assessment measure, the youth level of service/case management inventory (YLS/CMI), as a predictor of both delinquent reoffense and repeat truancy offenses in a court-involved truant sample (n = 308). The YLS/CMI performed adequately well at predicting delinquent reoffense, yielding an area under the curve (AUC) of .617 (p < .05); however, the analysis did not indicate any significant relationship between the YLS/CMI risk score and the repeat truancy offense. This study also used cluster analysis to identify five combinations of risk factors that were prevalent in the truant sample. These findings have value to justice and education systems as it determined the potential of this instrument as a truancy prevention tool. It also provided a typology system for classifying offenders based on eight domains of criminogenic risk, paving the way for interventions focused on specific patterns of risk found in this subpopulation of juvenile offenders.

The differential predictive validity of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory: the role of gender

ABSTRACT Most criminogenic risk assessments are developed and empirically validated on samples of boys or samples comprised of mostly boys, and subsequently applied to girls. Using a sample of male (n = 1,267) and female (n = 453) probationers, the purpose of the current study was to examine the potentially differential performance of the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) and the instrument’s eight domains for female juvenile offenders. Findings revealed gender differences in the predictive validity of the YLS/CMI in which girls scored significantly higher on the risk assessment, but recidivated at significantly lower rates than boys two years following the administration of the assessment. The predictive validity of the instrument was impacted by these gender differences in which the YLS/CMI total score was a better predictor of recidivism for boys (area under the curve (AUC) = .623) than girls (AUC = .565). The only subscales that significantly predicted recidivism for girls were the family (AUC = .607) and personality (AUC = .572) domains, whereas all of the subscales significantly predicted recidivism for boys. Directions for future research as well as gender-responsive assessment, programming, and policy implications are discussed.

Validity of initial, exit, and dynamic juvenile risk assessment: An examination across gender and race/ethnicity

ABSTRACT Risk assessments have been used in the juvenile justice system to predict future crime, identify youth needs, and inform case planning. Currently, the literature shows that juveniles are most often assessed when they enter court jurisdiction and this entry or initial risk assessment score is typically used to predict recidivism. The current study used the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory to examine the predictive validity of initial, exit, and change in risk scores on a diverse sample (N = 360) of young probationers. This study is one of few attempts to determine the predictive accuracy of change in risk, and the first to investigate the comparative validity of initial and exit risk scores with a sample of young offenders. Exit and change in risk scores significantly predicted recidivism 1-year post probation, yet initial scores did not. Differential predictive validity across race and gender was not identified for the initial or exit risk scores. The importance of examining changes in risk over time was discussed.

Screening Offenders: The Exploration of a Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) Brief Screener

Although structured assessments have helped standardize juvenile court processes by systematically measuring risk for recidivism, it has been argued that some assessments lack the ability to perform as a brief screener. This study explored the potential for the original 42-item Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI) risk assessment to perform as a brief screener for a sample of first-time juvenile offenders in a Midwestern, industrialized county. Results indicated that the original and shortened version of the YLS/CMI significantly predicted 2-year recidivism for male and female offenders. Implications for situationally targeted forms of risk assessment are discussed.

A comparative analysis of recidivism with propensity score matching of informal and formal juvenile probationers

Given service costs and evidence suggesting mixing young offenders of different risk levels increases recidivism, this study determined the extent to which differential disposition and risk determined subsequent recidivism. Furthermore, this study entailed a comparison of offense outcomes for informal probationers (n = 581) and formal probationers (n = 773) of similar risk levels. Criminogenic risk was assessed using the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory. To control for selection effects, the two groups were matched based on propensity scores. Validation of the measure yielded an Area Under the Curve (AUC) of .67 for informal probationers and .62 for formal probationers. Low-, moderate-, and high-risk probationers were found in both groups of offenders. However, there were no significant differences in recidivism rates between similar risk level youth of the two respective probation groups. Policy and practice implications are offered and discussed.

The Effects of Risk and Protective Factors on Juvenile Delinquency in South Korea

This study focused on the influence of risk and protective factors on juvenile delinquency in South Korea. The study also investigated the relationship between risk and protective factors. The first wave of data in the Korea Youth Panel Survey included 3,449 adolescents. Data analysis included exploratory factor analysis, regression analysis, and analysis of variance. Analysis revealed that parental monitoring and teacher attachment as protective factors were both associated with lower levels of delinquency. Moreover, delinquent peers and poor parenting as risk factors were associated with high levels of delinquency. The relationships between parent attachment and delinquency and between academic performance and delinquency were found to be nonsignificant. Finally, protective factors mitigated risk factor effects on delinquency levels.

Nonfatal Suicidal Behavior Among Women Prisoners The Predictive Roles of Childhood Victimization, Childhood Neglect, and Childhood Positive Support

Women entering prison report high rates of childhood victimization. Women in prison also report higher rates of nonfatal suicidal behavior (self-reported suicide attempts) than women in the general population and similar rates to their male counterparts despite having significantly lower suicide rates than males in the general population. Yet, there is a dearth of research that addresses the relationship between childhood victimization and suicidality for women prisoners in the United States. The purpose of this study is (a) to assess the relationship between childhood victimization and nonfatal suicidal behavior for a random sample of women prisoners; (b) to investigate predictive differences between childhood physical victimization, childhood sexual victimization, childhood neglect, and childhood support; and (c) to determine whether women prisoners with higher frequencies of childhood victimization and neglect are more likely to have attempted suicide than women prisoners with lower frequencies. Results indicate that childhood victimization, neglect, and lack of support are all significantly associated with nonfatal suicidal behavior among women prisoners. Frequency of childhood neglect had a larger effect size than frequency of childhood physical victimization, childhood sexual victimization, and lack of support. The results of this study add to the growing body of literature on childhood victimization and suicidality in general, and nonfatal suicidal behavior for prisoner populations in particular. The article ends with a discussion on clinical implications; particularly the finding that frequency of childhood victimization, childhood neglect, and lack of childhood support matters when determining the risk of suicidality.