F. A. B. Coutinho

Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue.

A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by

Vaccination against rubella: analysis of the temporal evolution of the age-dependent force of infection and the effects of different contact patterns.

\overline{R}

Estimation of R0 from the initial phase of an outbreak of a vector-borne infection

, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when

Cost-effectiveness analysis of a hypothetical hepatitis C vaccine compared to antiviral therapy.

\overline{R}

Potential exposure to Zika virus for foreign tourists during the 2016 Carnival and Olympic Games in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil

is greater than 1 it does. By not invading the population we mean that the number of infected individuals always decrease in subsequent seasons of transmission. Using the same threshold, all the qualitative features of the resulting epidemic can be understood. Our model suggests that trans-ovarial infection in the mosquitoes facilitates dengue overwintering. We also explain the delay between the peak in the mosquitoes population and the peak in dengue cases.

Time-reversal aspect of the point interactions in one-dimensional quantum mechanics

A mixed vaccination strategy against rubella is proposed. We describe how the vaccination strategy was designed with the help of mathematical techniques. The strategy was designed for application in a non-immunized community of the State of São Paulo, Brazil, and was implemented by local health authorities in 1992. This strategy comprises a pulse vaccination campaign, covering the age interval between 1 and 10 years, followed by the introduction of the vaccine in the immunization calendar at 15 months of age. The expected impact of the proposed strategy is discussed.