Marcelo Nascimento Burattini

Modelling the control strategies against dengue in Singapore

Notified cases of dengue infections in Singapore reached historical highs in 2004 (9459 cases) and 2005 (13,817 cases) and the reason for such an increase is still to be established. We apply a mathematical model for dengue infection that takes into account the seasonal variation in incidence, characteristic of dengue fever, and which mimics the 2004-2005 epidemics in Singapore. We simulated a set of possible control strategies and confirmed the intuitive belief that killing adult mosquitoes is the most effective strategy to control an ongoing epidemic. On the other hand, the control of immature forms was very efficient in preventing the resurgence of dengue epidemics. Since the control of immature forms allows the reduction of adulticide, it seems that the best strategy is to combine both adulticide and larvicide control measures during an outbreak, followed by the maintenance of larvicide methods after the epidemic has subsided. In addition, the model showed that the mixed strategy of adulticide and larvicide methods introduced by the government seems to be very effective in reducing the number of cases in the first weeks after the start of control.

The risk of yellow fever in a dengue-infested area

Yellow fever and dengue are viral infections that in urban centres are transmitted by the same arthropod vector, a mosquito of the genus Aedes. In order to estimate the risk of an epidemic of urban yellow fever in a dengue-infested area we calculated the threshold in the basic reproduction number, R0, of dengue, above which any single sylvatic yellow fever-infected individual will trigger an urban yellow fever epidemic. Specifically, we analysed the relationship between the extrinsic incubation period and the duration of viraemia, from which it is possible to define the R0 for dengue that would also suggest an outbreak potential for yellow fever. We also calculated the critical proportion of people to vaccinate against yellow fever in order to prevent an epidemic in a dengue-endemic area. The theory proposed is illustrated by the case of São Paulo State in southern Brazil, where dengue is endemic and the risk of urban yellow fever is already imminent.

HIV and infections of similar transmission patterns in a drug injectors community of Santos Brazil.

To study the prevalence of HIV and infections with related transmission patterns, we interviewed and obtained blood samples from 220 injecting drug users (IDUs), sampled by snowballing, from the city of Santos in the state of São Paulo, Brazil, where the estimated number of IDUs (10,000) comprises approximately 2% of the entire population. Seroprevalence of HIV, hepatitis B and C, syphilis, and HTLV (1 and 2) was assessed and compared with that in 197 blood donors from the same city, matched for age and gender. Risk behavior related to HIV was assessed by a standard questionnaire applied to the IDU sample. Univariate and multivariate analyses of the risk factors were performed. Seroprevalences found were 62% for HIV, 75% for HCV, 75% for HBV, 34% for syphilis, and 25% for HTLV (1 and 2) among IDUs, which compare with 0.0%, 2%, 23%, 12%, and 1% for blood donors, respectively. The risk for parenterally transmitted infections in this IDU community was higher than that for sexually transmitted infections (odds ratio for syphilis, 3.57; hepatitis B, 10.0; and hepatitis C, 100). The results of the mutivariate risk analysis showed that daily rate of ID use >5 times/day (OR = 6.73), not changing behavior to avoid AIDS (OR= 3.28), ID use >15 days/month (OR = 2.72), and ID use in the last 2 months (OR = 2.23) were the risk behaviors significantly associated with HIV infection.

Threshold conditions for a non-autonomous epidemic system describing the population dynamics of dengue.

A non-autonomous dynamical system, in which the seasonal variation of a mosquito vector population is modeled, is proposed to investigate dengue overwintering. A time-dependent threshold, R(t), is deduced such that when its yearly average, denoted by

Metallo‐beta‐lactamases among imipenem‐resistant Pseudomonas aeruginosa in a brazilian university hospital

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Dengue and the risk of urban yellow fever reintroduction in São Paulo State, Brazil

, is less than 1, the disease does not invade the populations and when

Progressive resistance training in elderly hiv-positive patients: does it work?

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