Fabian Zimmermann

Can less be more? Effects of reduced frequency of surveys and stock assessments

&NA; Uncertain and inaccurate estimates are a prevailing problem in stock assessment, despite increasingly sophisticated estimation methods and substantial usage of scientific and financial resources. Annual scientific surveys and assessment group meetings require frequent use of research vessels and skilled research staff and are, therefore, particularly costly. This data‐ and work‐intensive approach is often considered paramount for reliable stock estimates and risk management. However, it remains an open question whether the benefits of increasing assessment effort outweigh its marginal costs, or whether the potential impacts of investing less in assessments could generate net benefits. In this study, we explore how different scenarios of reduced survey and assessment frequencies affect estimated stock biomass, predicted catch, and uncertainty. Data of two Northeast Atlantic stocks, blue whiting (Micromesistius poutassou) and Norwegian spring‐spawning herring (Clupea harengus), and a widely applied stock assessment model are used to compare the impacts of removing surveys and/or annual assessments. The results show that lower survey and/or assessment frequencies tend to result in deviating estimates of spawning‐stock biomass and catch and larger confidence intervals, the observed differences being, however, mostly small. While scenarios without a survey datapoint in the assessment year generally produced the largest deviations in estimates, biannual surveys in general did not affect assessment performance substantially. This indicates that a reduced frequency of surveys and assessments could be an acceptable measure to reduce assessment costs and increase the efficiency of fisheries management, particularly when accompanied by thorough management strategy evaluations and risk assessments.

Density regulation in Northeast Atlantic fish populations: Density dependence is stronger in recruitment than in somatic growth

Population regulation is a central concept in ecology, yet in many cases its presence and the underlying mechanisms are difficult to demonstrate. The current paradigm maintains that marine fish populations are predominantly regulated by density-dependent recruitment. While it is known that density-dependent somatic growth can be present too, its general importance remains unknown and most practical applications neglect it. This study aimed to close this gap by for the first time quantifying and comparing density dependence in growth and recruitment over a large set of fish populations. We fitted density-dependent models to time-series data on population size, recruitment and age-specific weight from commercially exploited fish populations in the Northeast Atlantic Ocean and the Baltic Sea. Data were standardized to enable a direct comparison within and among populations, and estimated parameters were used to quantify the impact of density regulation on population biomass. Statistically significant density dependence in recruitment was detected in a large proportion of populations (70%), whereas for density dependence in somatic growth the prevalence of density dependence depended heavily on the method (26% and 69%). Despite age-dependent variability, the density dependence in recruitment was consistently stronger among age groups and between alternative approaches that use weight-at-age or weight increments to assess growth. Estimates of density-dependent reduction in biomass underlined these results: 97% of populations with statistically significant parameters for growth and recruitment showed a larger impact of density-dependent recruitment on population biomass. The results reaffirm the importance of density-dependent recruitment in marine fishes, yet they also show that density dependence in somatic growth is not uncommon. Furthermore, the results are important from an applied perspective because density dependence in somatic growth affects productivity and catch composition, and therefore the benefits of maintaining fish populations at specific densities.